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Czechia crestCzechia
v
Spain crestSpain

UEFA Nations League | Thu 12 Nov, 19:45

Czechia v Spain Stats

Data last updated: Wed 11 Nov 2026, 09:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Spain arrives in Prague with strong momentum, boasting four consecutive wins and a dominant 83% success rate in recent head-to-head clashes against Czechia. Despite their attacking prowess, Spain's defensive vulnerabilities in the Nations League, conceding in 11 of their last 15 matches, open the door for Czechia, who have scored in eight of their last ten home games. Czechia's recent struggles contrast with their reliable home scoring, setting the stage for a competitive match where Spain's offensive quality meets Czechia's resilience and goal threat.

BT4Y best bet

Spain to Win & Both Teams to Score

  • Spain has won 17 of their last 22 matches within 90 minutes, showing consistent winning form.
  • Spain conceded in all four victories during the previous international break, highlighting defensive lapses.
  • Czechia scored in eight of their last ten home matches, maintaining a reliable scoring record.
  • Head-to-head record favors Spain with 83% wins but Czechia's home scoring suggests both teams can find the net.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Spain to Win & Both Teams to Score at a 50.5% chance, significantly higher than the implied 33.3% , indicating strong value. Spain's consistent winning form combined with their tendency to concede in Nations League matches aligns with Czechia's reliable home scoring. This blend of attacking strength and defensive vulnerability on both sides supports the combined market. The model at 55% reflects moderate certainty, acknowledging that while Spain is favored, Czechia's scoring ability makes a clean sheet unlikely for the visitors.

Spain Winning Form17 wins in last 22 matches
Strong positive
Spain Defensive RecordConceded in 11 of last 15 Nations League matches
Positive
Czechia Home ScoringScored in 8 of last 10 home matches
Positive
Head-to-HeadSpain won 83% of last 6 meetings
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Spain's superior attacking quality and recent winning streak make them the clear favorites to win in Prague. However, Czechia's consistent home scoring and Spain's defensive lapses in the Nations League suggest both teams will find the net. This combined market captures the tactical balance between Spain's offensive pressure and Czechia's resilience.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · tactical and form balance

“Spain's control in possession and attack is clear, but their defensive vulnerabilities in the Nations League create a realistic chance for Czechia to score, making this a compelling bet combining an away win with both teams scoring.”

Key Data Signals

Spain to Win & Both Teams to Score evidence

Spain has won 17 of their last 22 matches within 90 minutes, showing consistent winning form.

Spain conceded in all four victories during the previous international break, highlighting defensive lapses.

Czechia scored in eight of their last ten home matches, maintaining a reliable scoring record.

Head-to-head record favors Spain with 83% wins but Czechia's home scoring suggests both teams can find the net.

What To Watch In The Data

Spain to Win & Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last four meetings, the average goals per game is 2.75, indicating a moderately high-scoring trend.
  • Both teams have shown a propensity for goals, with Spain's matches frequently exceeding 2.5 goals.
  • This trend supports an expectation of an open game with multiple goals, aligning with the combined pick and Over 2.5 Goals secondary market.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Czechia0.5
Avg goals scored
Spain3
Czechia2.5
Avg goals conceded
Spain1.25
Czechia50%
BTTS rate
Spain100%
Czechia75%
Over 2.5 goals
Spain100%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 26%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Both teams have shown a tendency to score and concede in recent matches. Spain has conceded in 11 of their last 15 Nations League games, while Czechia has scored in eight of their last ten home fixtures. This pattern supports a match with goals at both ends, aligning with the combined pick.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

UEFA Nations League hubCzechia v Spain predictionfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSpain Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 89% · edge -13.3 pts
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 58%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Spain to WinBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
The 19.8% for Spain to Win & Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 11.8% implied by the current price (+8 pts). Spain need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Czechia on 0 and Spain on 12. Spain hold the stronger winning edge, while Czechia still offer enough threat for BTTS.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Czechia

LLLL
Last 50W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 4L
06 Oct 2026A England0-3
03 Oct 2026A Spain1-3
29 Sep 2026H England0-2
26 Sep 2026H Croatia1-2

Spain

WWWW
Last 54W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 0D 0L
06 Oct 2026A Croatia2-1
03 Oct 2026H Czechia3-1
29 Sep 2026H Croatia4-1
26 Sep 2026A England3-2
Market aligned with main pickAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 84% vs implied 95% · edge -11.2 pts
1.05
Check odds @ 1.05
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Spain Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Spain to WinBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Spain's recent form is dominant, winning all four of their last matches and scoring an average of 3 goals per game while conceding 1.25. Czechia, conversely, has struggled, failing to win in their last four matches and conceding 2.5 goals per game, though they maintain a 50% BTTS rate and 75% over 2.5 goals rate, indicating matches with multiple goals and scoring from both sides.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

75%Czechia Over 2.5
100%Spain Over 2.5
2.75H2H avg goals
Over the last four meetings, the average goals per game is 2.75, indicating a moderately high-scoring trend. Both teams have shown a propensity for goals, with Spain's matches frequently exceeding 2.5 goals. This trend supports an expectation of an open game with multiple goals, aligning with the combined pick and Over 2.5 Goals secondary market.

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