Football Stats Hub

Lithuania crestLithuania
v
Suriname crestSuriname

Friendlies | Thu 12 Nov, 17:00

Lithuania v Suriname Stats

Data last updated: Wed 11 Nov 2026, 01:39 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Lithuania hosts Suriname in a friendly fixture where Lithuania's recent form and attacking efficiency provide a clear edge. Lithuania has averaged 1.67 goals per game while conceding less than one, showcasing a balanced approach. Suriname's data is limited, adding uncertainty, but their lack of recent points and offensive output suggests a challenge ahead. Lithuania's tactical setup and home advantage position them as favorites, with the match likely to test Suriname's defensive resilience against a more cohesive Lithuanian attack.

BT4Y match pick

Lithuania to Win

  • Lithuania averages 1.67 goals per game with a strong defensive record conceding 0.67 goals.
  • Suriname's recent form shows no points and limited offensive data, indicating struggles in attack.
  • Player data highlights Lithuania's M. Burba with 2.93 shots on target per 90 minutes, indicating active offensive threat.
  • Model projects a 74% chance for Lithuania to win, with positive value at of 2.55.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Lithuania to win with a 74% probability, reflecting their superior recent form and goal-scoring consistency. Lithuania's defensive solidity and home advantage strengthen their position, while Suriname's limited data and lack of recent success reduce their chances. The offer positive value, suggesting the market underestimates Lithuania's likelihood of victory. However, Suriname's thinner data sample introduces some uncertainty, so monitoring line-ups and match dynamics remains important.

Recent formLithuania strong, Suriname weak
Strong positive
Goal scoring and defenseLithuania scores 1.67, concedes 0.67
Strong positive
Player attacking statsM. Burba 2.93 SOT/90
Positive
Data qualityLimited Suriname data
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Lithuania's consistent attacking output and defensive discipline make them the likely winners in this friendly. Their recent form and home conditions provide a tactical and statistical edge over Suriname, whose offensive threat appears limited. This combination supports backing Lithuania to secure victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Lithuania's balanced approach and home advantage create a strong foundation for victory, while Suriname's sparse data and offensive struggles suggest they will find it difficult to challenge effectively.”

Key Data Signals

Lithuania to Win evidence

Lithuania averages 1.67 goals per game with a strong defensive record conceding 0.67 goals.

Suriname's recent form shows no points and limited offensive data, indicating struggles in attack.

Player data highlights Lithuania's M. Burba with 2.93 shots on target per 90 minutes, indicating active offensive threat.

Model projects a 74% chance for Lithuania to win, with positive value at of 2.55.

What To Watch In The Data

Lithuania to Win notes

  • Over the last five matches, Lithuania's games have a moderate 33% rate of over 2.5 goals, indicating a tendency towards controlled scoring rather than high-scoring affairs.
  • Suriname's data is insufficient for trend analysis, but Lithuania's tempo and defensive discipline suggest a match with measured goal opportunities rather than open play.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Lithuania

WLW
Last 52W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 1L
30 Sep 2026H Andorra3-0
29 Mar 2026H Georgia0-2
26 Mar 2026A Moldova2-0

Suriname

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Suriname yet.

Market aligned with main pickLithuania to WinBet365 guide price · Model 38% vs implied 39% · edge -1.4 pts
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Lithuania Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
Lithuania's recent form shows 6 points with an average of 1.67 goals scored and only 0.67 conceded, reflecting effective offense and solid defense. Suriname's form is less encouraging, with no points and no available goal data, indicating offensive struggles and defensive vulnerabilities that Lithuania can exploit.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Lithuania1.67
Avg goals scored
Suriname-
Lithuania0.67
Avg goals conceded
Suriname-
Lithuania0%
BTTS rate
Suriname-
Lithuania33%
Over 2.5 goals
Suriname-
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBet365 guide price · Model 68% vs implied 58% · edge +10.2 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 33%
2
Check odds @ 2
Lithuania's average of 1.67 goals per game combined with a low BTTS rate of 0% suggests a controlled attacking style with defensive focus. Suriname's lack of goal data limits BTTS analysis, but Lithuania's defensive solidity points to a lower likelihood of both teams scoring, favoring a Lithuania win with limited goal concessions.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickLithuania to WinBet365 guide price · Model 38% vs implied 39% · edge -1.4 pts
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Lithuania Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 33%
2
Check odds @ 2
The 37.8% for Lithuania to Win sits against roughly 39.2% implied by the current price (-1.4 pts). Lithuania have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 0 for Suriname.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

33%Lithuania Over 2.5
-Suriname Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, Lithuania's games have a moderate 33% rate of over 2.5 goals, indicating a tendency towards controlled scoring rather than high-scoring affairs. Suriname's data is insufficient for trend analysis, but Lithuania's tempo and defensive discipline suggest a match with measured goal opportunities rather than open play.

Loading deeper match data…