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San Marino crestSan Marino
v
Belarus crestBelarus

UEFA Nations League | Thu 12 Nov, 19:45

San Marino v Belarus Stats

Data last updated: Wed 11 Nov 2026, 09:27 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

San Marino hosts Belarus in a crucial UEFA Nations League C fixture where Belarus aims to extend their winning streak and strengthen their promotion bid. Belarus arrives with solid recent form, having won their last two matches, while San Marino struggles after four consecutive defeats and defensive frailties. Despite Belarus's defensive solidity, San Marino's ability to score in losses and create chances even against stronger opponents suggests a contest where both teams could find the net. Tactical setups see San Marino likely deploying a 4-3-1-2 formation to support their attackers, while Belarus uses a 4-4-2 aiming for control and efficient transitions.

BT4Y match pick · price watch

Belarus to Win & Both Teams to Score

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 35%, above the 27% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • Belarus has won all previous meetings against San Marino without conceding.
  • San Marino concedes an average of 4 goals per Nations League match, showing defensive vulnerability.
  • Belarus has kept 3 clean sheets in their last 4 matches but underlying xG conceded suggests some defensive risk.
  • San Marino has scored in four of their seven defeats in 2026, indicating attacking potential even in losses.
Price warning

Belarus to Win & Both Teams to Score is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 35% while the model sits nearer 27% (-7.5 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: San Marino to Win shows a +15 pts edge at 13.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model supports Belarus to Win & Both Teams to Score based on Belarus's superior recent form and historical control, combined with San Marino's consistent ability to score despite defensive struggles. Belarus's defensive record shows some vulnerability beneath the surface, allowing for a home goal. Although the current imply a higher chance than the model estimates, the football context justifies this selection as a football-led pick rather than a pure value bet. Reduced staking or waiting for improvement is advised due to the negative .

Belarus recent formStrong with consecutive wins
Positive
San Marino scoring recordScored in 4 of 7 defeats in 2026
Positive
Belarus defensive xG conceded4.3 expected goals conceded in 4 matches
Neutral
Price vs model chance27.3% model chance vs 34.8% implied (-7.5 pts)
Negative

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Belarus's recent momentum and historical control over San Marino make them the clear favorites to win. However, San Marino's demonstrated attacking threat in defeats and Belarus's underlying defensive vulnerabilities suggest both teams will score. This combination of form and tactical openness supports the selection of Belarus to Win & Both Teams to Score.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and BTTS rationale

“Belarus's control and attacking efficiency should secure victory, but San Marino's ability to create chances even when trailing means a goal for the hosts is plausible, making this a compelling BTTS selection alongside the away win.”

Key Data Signals

Belarus to Win & Both Teams to Score evidence

Belarus has won all previous meetings against San Marino without conceding.

San Marino concedes an average of 4 goals per Nations League match, showing defensive vulnerability.

Belarus has kept 3 clean sheets in their last 4 matches but underlying xG conceded suggests some defensive risk.

San Marino has scored in four of their seven defeats in 2026, indicating attacking potential even in losses.

What To Watch In The Data

Belarus to Win & Both Teams to Score notes

  • In the last three meetings, the average goals per game is 3.67, indicating a relatively high-scoring fixture history.
  • San Marino's 100% over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches contrasts with Belarus's 25%, suggesting a match tempo that could favor multiple goals and BTTS outcomes.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

San Marino0.25
Avg goals scored
Belarus1.25
San Marino4
Avg goals conceded
Belarus0.5
San Marino25%
BTTS rate
Belarus0%
San Marino100%
Over 2.5 goals
Belarus25%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 85% vs implied 86% · edge -0.3 pts
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 38%
3
Check odds @ 3
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
San Marino's defensive struggles have led to conceding 16 goals in four Nations League matches, while Belarus's defense, despite three clean sheets, has allowed opponents 4.3 expected goals, indicating some vulnerability. San Marino's ability to score in losses supports the likelihood of both teams scoring in this fixture.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more UEFA Nations League analysisfull betting preview for San Marino v Belaruscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBelarus to WinBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 88% · edge -17.7 pts
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 38%
3
Check odds @ 3
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
The 27.3% for Belarus to Win & Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 34.8% implied by the current price (-7.5 pts). Belarus need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show San Marino on 0 and Belarus on 7. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

San Marino

LLLL
Last 50W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 4L
06 Oct 2026A Albania1-2
03 Oct 2026A Belarus0-4
29 Sep 2026H Albania0-3
26 Sep 2026H Finland0-7

Belarus

WWDL
Last 52W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 1L
06 Oct 2026H Finland1-0
03 Oct 2026H San Marino4-0
29 Sep 2026A Finland0-0
26 Sep 2026A Albania0-2
Market aligned with main pickAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 84% vs implied 99% · edge -15 pts
1.01
Check odds @ 1.01
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Belarus to WinBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Belarus has won 2 of their last 4 matches, showing improving form and defensive solidity with 3 clean sheets in 4 games. San Marino remains winless in 4 matches, conceding heavily but still managing to score in some defeats, indicating a vulnerable yet occasionally threatening side.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%San Marino Over 2.5
25%Belarus Over 2.5
3.67H2H avg goals
In the last three meetings, the average goals per game is 3.67, indicating a relatively high-scoring fixture history. San Marino's 100% over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches contrasts with Belarus's 25%, suggesting a match tempo that could favor multiple goals and BTTS outcomes.

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