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Montenegro crestMontenegro
v
Latvia crestLatvia

UEFA Nations League | Thu 12 Nov, 19:45

Montenegro v Latvia Stats

Data last updated: Wed 11 Nov 2026, 09:27 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Montenegro aims to consolidate their lead in UEFA Nations League C Group 2 by hosting Latvia, who sit bottom of the group with just one point. Montenegro's unbeaten run, marked by three wins and a draw, reflects their attacking prowess and tactical control, averaging over 12 shots and 54% possession per match. Latvia's struggles on the road, including five defeats in six away games and a low scoring average of 0.5 goals per away match, highlight their difficulties in breaking down opponents. This clash presents Montenegro with a strong chance to extend their control, though defensive lapses remain a consideration.

BT4Y match pick

Montenegro to Win

  • Montenegro unbeaten with 10 points from 4 matches, showing strong attacking form
  • Latvia have lost 5 of their last 6 away matches, scoring just 0.5 goals per away game
  • Montenegro average 13.25 shots and 4.75 shots on target per match, indicating offensive pressure
  • Latvia's defensive record is weak, conceding multiple goals in recent fixtures
  • Montenegro's possession control and shot volume suggest they will dictate the match tempo

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Montenegro to win with a 74% chance, reflecting their superior form, attacking volume, and home advantage. Montenegro's average of 13.25 shots per match and 54% possession underlines their ability to create scoring opportunities, while Latvia's low away scoring rate and poor recent form reduce their threat. The of 1.53 offer a positive of 8.8%, supporting a confident backing of Montenegro. Defensive vulnerabilities exist but are outweighed by Montenegro's consistent goal threat and Latvia's offensive struggles.

Montenegro recent formStrong, unbeaten with 10 points
Strong positive
Latvia away formPoor, 5 losses in 6 matches
Negative
Montenegro attacking stats13.25 shots/match, 4.75 SOT
Strong positive
Latvia scoring average0.5 goals per away match
Negative
Price vs model chance74% model chance vs 76.9% implied (-2.9 pts)
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Montenegro's tactical control and superior attacking numbers make them the clear favorite to secure victory. Their unbeaten Nations League run and home advantage complement Latvia's poor away form and limited goal threat, making a Montenegro win the most logical outcome for this fixture.

Main risk

Montenegro carry the stronger scoring threat, but Latvia must contribute for BTTS to land.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Montenegro's control in possession and shot creation, combined with Latvia's struggles on the road, sets the stage for a confident home win. Their ability to convert chances consistently is the key factor here.”

Key Data Signals

Montenegro to Win evidence

Montenegro unbeaten with 10 points from 4 matches, showing strong attacking form

Latvia have lost 5 of their last 6 away matches, scoring just 0.5 goals per away game

Montenegro average 13.25 shots and 4.75 shots on target per match, indicating offensive pressure

Latvia's defensive record is weak, conceding multiple goals in recent fixtures

What To Watch In The Data

Montenegro to Win notes

  • Over the last four meetings, the average goals per match is 2, with Montenegro winning two and drawing one.
  • Montenegro's recent matches show a 75% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating a tendency for open play and multiple goals, while Latvia's 50% rate suggests more conservative outcomes.
  • This trend supports expectations of a moderately high-scoring match favoring Montenegro.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Montenegro1.75
Avg goals scored
Latvia0.5
Montenegro1
Avg goals conceded
Latvia1.5
Montenegro75%
BTTS rate
Latvia50%
Montenegro75%
Over 2.5 goals
Latvia50%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 75%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 39%
3
Check odds @ 3
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 47%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Montenegro's attacking consistency suggests a higher likelihood of goals, but Latvia's low scoring and defensive approach point towards a scenario where both teams may not score. This supports a cautious BTTS No and Under 3.5 Goals context, balancing Montenegro's goal threat with Latvia's limited offensive output.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more UEFA Nations League analysisMontenegro v Latvia predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickMontenegro to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 77% · edge -2.9 pts
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 55%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Montenegro Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
The 74% for Montenegro to Win sits against roughly 76.9% implied by the current price (-2.9 pts). Montenegro have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 1 for Latvia. Montenegro's defensive lapses pose some risk but the visitors' struggles make this scoreline plausible.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Montenegro

DWWW
Last 53W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 0L
05 Oct 2026H Armenia0-0
02 Oct 2026A Latvia2-1
28 Sep 2026A Armenia3-2
25 Sep 2026H Cyprus2-1

Latvia

LLDL
Last 50W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 3L
05 Oct 2026A Cyprus1-2
02 Oct 2026H Montenegro1-2
28 Sep 2026H Cyprus0-0
25 Sep 2026A Armenia0-2
Market aligned with main pickMontenegro to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 77% · edge -2.9 pts
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%
1.02
Check odds @ 1.02
Montenegro Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Montenegro's recent form is impressive, with 10 points from 4 matches and a 75% rate of Over 2.5 Goals, reflecting their attacking efficiency. Latvia's form is poor, with only 1 point and a 50% Over 2.5 rate, highlighting their struggles to score and defend consistently away from home.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

75%Montenegro Over 2.5
50%Latvia Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
Over the last four meetings, the average goals per match is 2, with Montenegro winning two and drawing one. Montenegro's recent matches show a 75% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating a tendency for open play and multiple goals, while Latvia's 50% rate suggests more conservative outcomes. This trend supports expectations of a moderately high-scoring match favoring Montenegro.

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