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Türkiye crestTürkiye
v
Belgium crestBelgium

UEFA Nations League | Thu 12 Nov, 17:00

Türkiye v Belgium Stats

Data last updated: Wed 11 Nov 2026, 09:27 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Belgium travel to İzmir aiming to extend their Nations League success against Türkiye, who have struggled under new management with four consecutive defeats and defensive frailties. Despite missing key attacker Kenan Yildiz, Türkiye's home resilience and tactical shift under Sergen Yalcin, including plans to deploy a specialist centre-forward, suggest they can breach Belgium's defence. Belgium's potent attack, averaging 2.6 goals and nearly 18 shots per game, contrasts with Türkiye's leaky backline conceding 11 goals in four matches. This clash promises an intense contest with both teams likely to score, reflecting Belgium's recent away scoring consistency and Türkiye's home competitiveness.

BT4Y best bet

(Belgium and Yes)

  • Belgium average 2.6 goals and 17.75 shots per game, showing strong attacking firepower.
  • Türkiye have conceded 11 goals in four Nations League matches, highlighting defensive issues.
  • Türkiye have avoided defeat in nine of their last 11 home Nations League matches, indicating home resilience.
  • Belgium have scored in ten consecutive away matches across all competitions, supporting BTTS.
  • Both teams have featured in several high-scoring matches recently, with multiple games over 2.5 goals.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Belgium to win with both teams scoring due to Belgium's superior attacking metrics and Türkiye's defensive vulnerabilities. Belgium's average of 2.6 goals and 17.75 shots per game contrasts sharply with Türkiye's concession of 11 goals in four matches. Despite Türkiye's recent struggles, their home form and tactical changes under Sergen Yalcin provide a credible goal threat. The price offers positive value with a 43.6% against a 28.6% implied market chance, making this a compelling selection. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Belgium attacking strength2.6 goals/game, 17.75 shots/game
Strong positive
Türkiye defensive weakness11 goals conceded in 4 matches
Strong positive
Türkiye home resilience9 of last 11 home matches unbeaten
Positive
Belgium away scoring consistencyscored in 10 consecutive away matches
Positive
Price vs model chance43.6% model chance vs 28.6% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Belgium's attacking prowess and recent form give them the edge to secure victory, while Türkiye's home record and tactical adjustments suggest they will find the net. This combination supports a Belgium win with both teams scoring, reflecting a competitive match where Belgium's firepower should prevail but not without a response from Türkiye.

Main risk

Yalcin intends to introduce a specialist centre forward and reshape Türkiye's attacking approach, although implementing those changes against experienced opposition presents an immediate challenge.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match result and both teams to score

“Belgium's consistent goal threat combined with Türkiye's home resilience and tactical shift makes this a compelling contest for both teams to score. Belgium's ability to generate shots and chances should overcome Türkiye's defensive struggles, even with key absences.”

Key Data Signals

(Belgium and Yes) evidence

Belgium average 2.6 goals and 17.75 shots per game, showing strong attacking firepower.

Türkiye have conceded 11 goals in four Nations League matches, highlighting defensive issues.

Türkiye have avoided defeat in nine of their last 11 home Nations League matches, indicating home resilience.

Belgium have scored in ten consecutive away matches across all competitions, supporting BTTS.

What To Watch In The Data

(Belgium and Yes) notes

  • Over the last five matches, Türkiye have featured in 75% of games with over 2.5 goals, while Belgium have 50%.
  • Their head-to-head average goals stand at 3, indicating a tendency for open, high-scoring encounters.
  • This trend supports expectations for a lively match with multiple goals and attacking intent from both sides.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Türkiye0.5
Avg goals scored
Belgium1.5
Türkiye2.75
Avg goals conceded
Belgium1.25
Türkiye50%
BTTS rate
Belgium25%
Türkiye75%
Over 2.5 goals
Belgium50%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 82% vs implied 88% · edge -6.1 pts
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Load more odds for this section
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 46%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 58%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Both teams have shown a tendency for goals recently, with Türkiye featuring in 50% BTTS matches and Belgium in 25%. Belgium's high shot volume and Türkiye's defensive concessions suggest multiple goals, while Türkiye's home resilience supports their scoring chances, making BTTS a logical expectation.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

UEFA Nations League hubTürkiye v Belgium predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 62% · edge +13.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Belgium to WinBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Belgium Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 58%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Türkiye to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Türkiye Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The 43.6% for (Belgium and Yes) sits against roughly 28.6% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Turkiye hold the stronger winning edge, while Belgium still offer enough threat for BTTS.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Türkiye

LLLL
Last 50W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 4L
05 Oct 2026A Italy1-3
02 Oct 2026A Belgium0-3
28 Sep 2026H Italy1-4
25 Sep 2026H France0-1

Belgium

LWLW
Last 52W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 2L
05 Oct 2026A France1-4
02 Oct 2026H Türkiye3-0
28 Sep 2026H France0-1
25 Sep 2026A Italy2-0
Best odds for this sectionBelgium to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Belgium Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 84%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 48%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Türkiye to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Türkiye Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
DrawBetfred guide price · model 18%
4
Check odds @ 4
Belgium have collected 6 points from their last four Nations League matches, scoring 1.5 goals per game and conceding 1.25, showing solid form. Türkiye have struggled with zero points, scoring only 0.5 goals and conceding 2.75 per game, highlighting their defensive vulnerability and scoring difficulties, which underpin the prediction for Belgium to win with both teams scoring.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

75%Türkiye Over 2.5
50%Belgium Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, Türkiye have featured in 75% of games with over 2.5 goals, while Belgium have 50%. Their head-to-head average goals stand at 3, indicating a tendency for open, high-scoring encounters. This trend supports expectations for a lively match with multiple goals and attacking intent from both sides.

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