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Scotland crestScotland
v
Switzerland crestSwitzerland

UEFA Nations League | Tue 29 Sep, 19:45

Scotland v Switzerland Stats

Data last updated: Mon 28 Sep 2026, 08:24 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This UEFA Nations League fixture features Switzerland, currently top of the group with a strong start, facing Scotland, who sit second with fewer points. Switzerland's recent performances show a confident attacking style, having scored three goals in their last match while maintaining a solid defense. Scotland, yet to score in recent outings, will need to break their scoring drought against a Swiss side that averages high shot volumes and creates multiple chances. The match promises tactical intensity as Scotland seek to close the gap, while Switzerland aim to consolidate their lead in the group.

BT4Y match pick

Switzerland to Win

  • Switzerland leads the group with 3 points; Scotland has 1 point so far.
  • Switzerland scored 3 goals in their last match, Scotland none.
  • Switzerland averages 23 shots and 11 shots on target per game, showing attacking control.
  • Scotland has a low BTTS and Over 2.5 goals rate, while Switzerland’s Over 2.5 goals rate is 100%.
  • Switzerland’s top attackers, including Z. Amdouni and Winsley Boteli Mokango, show strong goal threat and shot volume.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Switzerland to win with a 70% chance, significantly above the implied market chance of 52.6%, indicating clear value. Switzerland’s attacking metrics are superior, averaging 23 shots and 11 shots on target per game, supported by key players like Z. Amdouni who has 2 goals and over 3 shots on target per 90 minutes. Scotland’s lack of goals and lower attacking output further supports the away win. The data quality is solid for both teams, reinforcing in this selection.

Model Chance51.8% model chance vs 52.6% implied (-0.8 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance51.8% model chance vs 52.6% implied (-0.8 pts)
Strong positive
Switzerland Average Shots per Game23
Strong positive
Switzerland Average Shots on Target11
Strong positive
Scotland Goals Scored Recently0
Negative

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Switzerland’s superior attacking form and clinical finishing make them the clear choice to win this Nations League clash. Their ability to generate high-quality chances contrasts with Scotland’s current scoring struggles, suggesting Switzerland will control the game and secure victory.

Main risk

Embolo’s suspension could have weakened the Swiss attack, but Zeki Amdouni made unusually light work of replacing him on Saturday.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Switzerland’s offensive firepower, led by prolific shooters like Amdouni and Mokango, combined with Scotland’s recent scoring drought, points strongly towards an away win in this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Switzerland to Win evidence

Switzerland leads the group with 3 points; Scotland has 1 point so far.

Switzerland scored 3 goals in their last match, Scotland none.

Switzerland averages 23 shots and 11 shots on target per game, showing attacking control.

Scotland has a low BTTS and Over 2.5 goals rate, while Switzerland’s Over 2.5 goals rate is 100%.

What To Watch In The Data

Switzerland to Win notes

  • Over the last five matches, Switzerland has consistently produced games with over 2.5 goals, reflecting a high-tempo, attacking style.
  • Scotland’s matches have been low scoring, but the trend panel suggests the fixture is likely to feature multiple goals, driven by Switzerland’s offensive approach.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Scotland0
Avg goals scored
Switzerland3
Scotland0
Avg goals conceded
Switzerland0
Scotland0%
BTTS rate
Switzerland0%
Scotland0%
Over 2.5 goals
Switzerland100%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetMGM guide price · Model 68% vs implied 58% · edge +10.2 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 48%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 30%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 32%
2
Check odds @ 2
Switzerland’s recent matches have featured high goal totals, with a 100% Over 2.5 goals rate and multiple goals scored, while Scotland has yet to score recently and has a 0% BTTS rate. This contrast suggests a game likely to see goals from Switzerland, with Scotland’s defense potentially vulnerable to multiple scoring attempts.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSwitzerland to WinBetfred guide price · Model 52% vs implied 53% · edge -0.8 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 48%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Switzerland Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 50%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 32%
2
Check odds @ 2
The 51.8% for Switzerland to Win sits against roughly 52.6% implied by the current price (-0.8 pts). Switzerland have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 1 for Scotland. Scotland’s first match under Sebastien Pocognoli produced almost everything except the goal.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

UEFA Nations League hubScotland v Switzerland predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Scotland

D
Last 50W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 0L
26 Sep 2026A Slovenia0-0

Switzerland

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
26 Sep 2026A FYR Macedonia3-0
Market aligned with main pickSwitzerland to WinBetfred guide price · Model 52% vs implied 53% · edge -0.8 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 77%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Switzerland Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Switzerland’s recent form is strong, with a 3-0 victory and high attacking output, while Scotland has struggled to score and only secured a single point. This momentum favors Switzerland, who appear more confident and effective in front of goal heading into this match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Scotland Over 2.5
100%Switzerland Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, Switzerland has consistently produced games with over 2.5 goals, reflecting a high-tempo, attacking style. Scotland’s matches have been low scoring, but the trend panel suggests the fixture is likely to feature multiple goals, driven by Switzerland’s offensive approach.

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