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Lanus crestLanus
v
Independiente crestIndependiente

Liga Profesional Argentina | Mon 17 Aug, 21:00

Lanus v Independiente Stats

Data last updated: Wed 09 Sep 2026, 20:51 UK time
BT4Y lean · price warning

Both Teams To Score NO

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 62%, above the 47% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • At 8/13, Both Teams To Score NO implies roughly 62%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 47%.
  • Have finished without both teams scoring.
  • Lanus show a 20% BTTS rate and Independiente show a 20% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
  • Lanus average 1 goals scored and Independiente average 0.8, so both attacking contributions need separating.
Price warning

Both Teams To Score NO is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 62% while the model sits nearer 47% (-15.2 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Independiente to Win shows a +12.5 pts edge at 3.7.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 47% for Both Teams To Score NO sits against roughly 62% implied by the current price. Lanus show a 20% BTTS rate and Independiente show a 20% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. have finished without both teams scoring.

Model chance vs price47% model chance against roughly 62% implied
Negative
Lanus show a 20% BTTS rate and Independiente show a.Visible data support
Positive
Lanus average 1 goals scored and Independiente average 0.8, so.Visible data support
Positive
have finished without both teams scoring.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Both Teams To Score is the preferred angle because have finished without both teams scoring. Lanus show a that shared-scoring rate rate and Independiente show a 20% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Lanús Are Creating Less, but Giving Away Even Less

Main risk

Lanús Are Creating Less, but Giving Away Even Less.

Key Data Signals

Both Teams To Score NO evidence

Have finished without both teams scoring.

Lanus show a 20% BTTS rate and Independiente show a 20% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Lanus average 1 goals scored and Independiente average 0.8, so both attacking contributions need separating.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams To Score NO notes

  • Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Lanus4.8
Avg corners for
Independiente6.4
Lanus8.4
Avg total corners
Independiente9.2
Lanus2.6
Avg yellow cards
Independiente1.8
Lanus15.8
Avg shots
Independiente12.4
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 44% · edge +5.4 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Over 5.5 CardsBetMGM guide price
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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Useful next reads

Lanus v Independiente predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Lanus1
Avg goals scored
Independiente0.8
Lanus1
Avg goals conceded
Independiente1
Lanus20%
BTTS rate
Independiente20%
Lanus40%
Over 2.5 goals
Independiente20%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 47% vs implied 46% · edge +1.2 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
6
Check odds @ 6
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 34%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS Yes is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: the BTTS rates are 20% for Lanus and 20% for Independiente, so the price depends on both attacks contributing rather than the clean-sheet story.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 47% vs implied 46% · edge +1.2 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
Independiente to WinBet365 guide price · model 40%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Lanus Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 55%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Lanus to WinBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Independiente Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 34%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
BTTS Yes is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Lanus

WLLWL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
12 Aug 2026A Talleres Cordoba3-0
06 Aug 2026A Union Santa Fe1-2
03 Aug 2026H Instituto Cordoba0-1
26 Jul 2026H San Lorenzo1-0
10 May 2026A Argentinos JRS0-2

Independiente

LLWWL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 4L
09 Aug 2026H Platense0-1
03 Aug 2026A Velez Sarsfield0-1
31 Jul 2026H Newells Old Boys1-0
26 Jul 2026A Estudiantes L.P.2-0
10 May 2026A Rosario Central1-3
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 64% · edge +5.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Independiente to WinBet365 guide price · model 40%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Lanus Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 55%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Lanus to WinBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Independiente Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

5Lanus wins
3Draws
2Independiente wins
13 Feb 2026Independiente v Lanus2-0
13 Oct 2025Independiente v Lanus0-2
06 Apr 2025Lanus v Independiente1-1
18 Oct 2024Lanus v Independiente0-2
28 May 2023Independiente v Lanus1-1
13 Aug 2022Lanus v Independiente1-1
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 47% vs implied 46% · edge +1.2 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
Independiente to WinBet365 guide price · model 40%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Lanus to WinBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 34%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
The head-to-head sample gives context for BTTS Yes, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Season team stats

Liga Profesional Argentina

Lanus25
Played
Independiente25
Lanus1
Avg goals for
Independiente1.3
Lanus1
Avg goals against
Independiente1.2
Lanus10
Clean sheets
Independiente8
Best odds for this sectionIndependiente to WinBet365 guide price · Model 40% vs implied 27% · edge +12.5 pts
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Load more odds for this section
Lanus Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 55%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Lanus to WinBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Independiente Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Season data supports Independiente to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
5Independiente24166644
6Lanus24166643
6Independiente1384131
9Lanus1083140
Lanus sit in position 9, while Independiente sit in position 6, so table pressure belongs in the Both Teams To Score NO assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Lanus Over 2.5
20%Independiente Over 2.5
1.9H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Lanus sit at 40% and Independiente sit at 20% with the H2H average at 1.9 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Lanus v Independiente prediction

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Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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