Football Stats Hub

Lanus crestLanus
v
Independiente crestIndependiente

Liga Profesional Argentina | Mon 17 Aug, 21:00

Lanus v Independiente Stats

Data last updated: Sat 03 Oct 2026, 08:07 UK time
BT4Y lean · price warning

Both Teams To Score NO

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 62%, above the 47% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • At 8/13, Both Teams To Score NO implies roughly 62%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 47%.
  • Have finished without both teams scoring.
  • Lanus show a 20% BTTS rate and Independiente show a 20% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
  • Lanus average 1 goals scored and Independiente average 0.8, so both attacking contributions need separating.
Price warning

Both Teams To Score NO is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 62% while the model sits nearer 47% (-15.2 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Independiente to Win shows a +12.5 pts edge at 3.7.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 47% for Both Teams To Score NO sits against roughly 62% implied by the current price. Lanus show a 20% BTTS rate and Independiente show a 20% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. have finished without both teams scoring.

Model chance vs price47% model chance against roughly 62% implied
Negative
Lanus show a 20% BTTS rate and Independiente show a.Visible data support
Positive
Lanus average 1 goals scored and Independiente average 0.8, so.Visible data support
Positive
have finished without both teams scoring.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Both Teams To Score is the preferred angle because have finished without both teams scoring. Lanus show a that shared-scoring rate rate and Independiente show a 20% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Lanús Are Creating Less, but Giving Away Even Less

Main risk

Lanús Are Creating Less, but Giving Away Even Less.

Key Data Signals

Both Teams To Score NO evidence

Have finished without both teams scoring.

Lanus show a 20% BTTS rate and Independiente show a 20% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Lanus average 1 goals scored and Independiente average 0.8, so both attacking contributions need separating.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams To Score NO notes

  • Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Lanus1
Avg goals scored
Independiente0.8
Lanus1
Avg goals conceded
Independiente1
Lanus20%
BTTS rate
Independiente20%
Lanus40%
Over 2.5 goals
Independiente20%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 47% vs implied 46% · edge +1.2 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
6
Check odds @ 6
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 34%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS Yes is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: the BTTS rates are 20% for Lanus and 20% for Independiente, so the price depends on both attacks contributing rather than the clean-sheet story.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Lanus v Independiente predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 47% vs implied 46% · edge +1.2 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Independiente to WinBet365 guide price · model 40%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Lanus Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 55%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Lanus to WinBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Independiente Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 34%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
BTTS Yes is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Lanus

WLLWL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
12 Aug 2026A Talleres Cordoba3-0
06 Aug 2026A Union Santa Fe1-2
03 Aug 2026H Instituto Cordoba0-1
26 Jul 2026H San Lorenzo1-0
10 May 2026A Argentinos JRS0-2

Independiente

LLWWL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 4L
09 Aug 2026H Platense0-1
03 Aug 2026A Velez Sarsfield0-1
31 Jul 2026H Newells Old Boys1-0
26 Jul 2026A Estudiantes L.P.2-0
10 May 2026A Rosario Central1-3
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 64% · edge +5.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Independiente to WinBet365 guide price · model 40%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Lanus Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 55%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Lanus to WinBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Independiente Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Lanus Over 2.5
20%Independiente Over 2.5
1.9H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Lanus sit at 40% and Independiente sit at 20% with the H2H average at 1.9 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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