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Israel crestIsrael
v
Kosovo crestKosovo

UEFA Nations League | Thu 01 Oct, 19:45

Israel v Kosovo Stats

Data last updated: Wed 30 Sep 2026, 09:23 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Kosovo arrives in this UEFA Nations League fixture with a strong recent performance, having secured 3 points and showing a more effective attack and defense compared to Israel, who have yet to gain points and have conceded multiple goals. Kosovo's tactical setup emphasizes quick transitions and pressing, which contrasts with Israel's struggles to maintain defensive solidity. The stakes are high as Kosovo aims to consolidate their position in the group, while Israel seeks to recover form and avoid early elimination. The match promises tactical intensity and a test of Kosovo's growing against Israel's need for resilience.

BT4Y best bet

Kosovo to Win

  • Kosovo holds a 64.9% to win with positive value at 2.2 .
  • Kosovo's recent form shows 3 points gained versus Israel's zero, indicating momentum advantage.
  • Kosovo averages 14 shots and 4.5 shots on target per game, doubling Israel's offensive output.
  • Head-to-head matches average 1.5 goals, suggesting moderate scoring potential but Kosovo's attack is more potent.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Kosovo to win with a 64.9% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and offensive metrics. Kosovo's higher shot volume and better defensive record underpin this . The at 2.2 offer positive value given the implied chance is only 45.5%. Kosovo's tactical approach and player contributions, especially from attackers like V. Zhegrova, enhance their scoring threat. Israel's defensive vulnerabilities and lack of points further support Kosovo's advantage. No data limitations affect this assessment, making the pick a solid football and value-based choice.

Model Chance47.7% model chance vs 45.5% implied (+2.2 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance47.7% model chance vs 45.5% implied (+2.2 pts)
Strong positive
Recent FormKosovo 3 pts, Israel 0 pts
Positive
Shots & SOTKosovo 14 shots, 4.5 SOT; Israel 6.5 shots, 2.5 SOT
Strong positive
Defensive RecordKosovo concedes 1.5 goals/game; Israel concedes 3
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Kosovo's superior recent form and offensive pressure make them the tactical favorite to secure victory. Their ability to generate more shots and maintain defensive discipline contrasts with Israel's struggles, providing a clear edge in this Nations League encounter.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Kosovo's attacking efficiency and recent momentum position them well to capitalize on Israel's defensive frailties in this crucial Nations League clash.”

Key Data Signals

Kosovo to Win evidence

Kosovo holds a 64.9% to win with positive value at 2.2 .

Kosovo's recent form shows 3 points gained versus Israel's zero, indicating momentum advantage.

Kosovo averages 14 shots and 4.5 shots on target per game, doubling Israel's offensive output.

Head-to-head matches average 1.5 goals, suggesting moderate scoring potential but Kosovo's attack is more potent.

What To Watch In The Data

Kosovo to Win notes

  • Over the last two head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.5, indicating a moderately low-scoring trend.
  • However, Kosovo's recent attacking form and shot volume suggest the potential for a more open game with chances to exceed this average, especially given Israel's defensive vulnerabilities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Israel0.5
Avg goals scored
Kosovo1
Israel3
Avg goals conceded
Kosovo1.5
Israel50%
BTTS rate
Kosovo50%
Israel100%
Over 2.5 goals
Kosovo50%
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 62% vs implied 51% · edge +11.1 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 80%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2
Check odds @ 2
Recent form data shows Israel has a 100% over 2.5 goals rate but concedes heavily, while Kosovo's over 2.5 rate is 50%. Both teams have a 50% BTTS rate, suggesting moderate likelihood of goals from both sides. The average 1.5 goals in their head-to-head matches indicates a balanced scoring environment, with Kosovo's stronger attack likely to influence the total goals outcome.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more UEFA Nations League analysisfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickKosovo to WinBetfred guide price · Model 48% vs implied 46% · edge +2.2 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Kosovo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 35%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
The 47.7% for Kosovo to Win sits against roughly 45.5% implied by the current price (+2.2 pts). Kosovo have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Israel.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Israel

LL
Last 50W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 2L
27 Sep 2026H Rep. Of Ireland0-3
24 Sep 2026A Austria1-3

Kosovo

LW
Last 51W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 1L
27 Sep 2026A Austria1-3
24 Sep 2026H Rep. Of Ireland1-0
Market aligned with main pickKosovo to WinBetfred guide price · Model 48% vs implied 46% · edge +2.2 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Kosovo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Kosovo's recent form shows a positive trajectory with 3 points gained and a better defensive record, conceding 1.5 goals per game compared to Israel's 3. Israel's lack of points and defensive struggles highlight their current challenges, reinforcing Kosovo's momentum advantage and likelihood to control the match tempo and outcome.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Israel Over 2.5
50%Kosovo Over 2.5
1.5H2H avg goals
Over the last two head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.5, indicating a moderately low-scoring trend. However, Kosovo's recent attacking form and shot volume suggest the potential for a more open game with chances to exceed this average, especially given Israel's defensive vulnerabilities.

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