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Scotland crestScotland

World Cup | Sun 14 Jun, 02:00

Haiti v Scotland Stats

Data last updated: Sat 13 Jun 2026, 04:06 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Scotland approach their World Cup Group C opener against Haiti with strong attacking momentum, having scored eight goals in their last two friendlies. Despite a lower average possession of 40%, Scotland's disciplined, direct style under Steve Clarke is designed to exploit Haiti's defensive vulnerabilities, which saw them concede 13 goals in qualifying. Haiti return to the World Cup after 52 years, bringing emotional intensity and a high shot volume led by Duckens Nazon, but their defensive frailties and Scotland's clinical finishing set the stage for a narrow away win in a tightly contested match at Boston Stadium.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Scotland to Win

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 64%, above the 41% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • Scotland scored 8 goals in last 2 friendlies, showing sharp attacking form
  • Haiti conceded 13 goals in qualifying, indicating defensive weaknesses
  • Scotland's Scott McTominay offers key goal threat from midfield
  • Haiti average 12.36 shots per match, posing offensive threat
Price warning

Scotland to Win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 64% while the model sits nearer 41% (-22.7 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Haiti Draw No Bet shows a +25.3 pts edge at 3.55.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model recognizes Scotland's superior attacking efficiency and recent scoring surge, reflected in consecutive four-goal wins in warm-ups. Scotland's structured approach offsets their lower possession, while Haiti's defensive record suggests susceptibility to conceding goals. However, the current are short compared to the model's 41% chance, indicating a negative . This pick is football-led rather than a pure value bet, and staking should be reduced or delayed until price improves or team news clarifies line-ups.

Scotland recent scoring formHigh (1.75 goals per match, 8 goals in last 2 games)
Strong positive
Haiti defensive recordWeak (13 goals conceded in qualifying)
Positive
Model chance vs. market oddsModel 41% vs. implied 63.6%
Negative
Scott McTominay offensive impactSignificant (13 goals since 2023)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Scotland's recent attacking form and midfield firepower provide a solid foundation for victory, especially against a defensively vulnerable Haiti side. Their clinical finishing and structured game plan should overcome Haiti's spirited offense, making Scotland the logical choice to secure the win in this crucial opener.

Main risk

The main risk is Scotland's historical difficulty winning opening World Cup matches combined with key absences and the volatile nature of Haiti's attacking threat, which could disrupt Scotland's rhythm and defensive stability.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form analysis

“Scotland's blend of direct attacking and midfield goal threat positions them well to exploit Haiti's defensive gaps, but the match's emotional intensity and Haiti's shot volume mean Scotland must maintain focus throughout.”

Key Data Signals

Scotland to Win evidence

Scotland scored 8 goals in last 2 friendlies, showing sharp attacking form

Haiti conceded 13 goals in qualifying, indicating defensive weaknesses

Scotland's Scott McTominay offers key goal threat from midfield

Haiti average 12.36 shots per match, posing offensive threat

What To Watch In The Data

Scotland to Win notes

  • Over the last 10 matches involving these teams and similar competitive contexts, Over 2.5 Goals trends indicate a moderate likelihood of multiple goals, driven by Scotland's recent scoring bursts and Haiti's offensive shot volume.
  • The tempo and attacking intent from both sides suggest a game open to goal opportunities, especially in transitional phases and set-piece situations.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickScotland to WinBet365 guide price · Model 41% vs implied 64% · edge -22.7 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Scotland Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
The Scotland to Win market is priced short with of 4/7, reflecting strong public but offering limited value given the model's 41% win probability. This suggests a price-sensitive selection where improved or clearer team news would enhance the value proposition.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Haiti-
Avg goals scored
Scotland-
Haiti-
Avg goals conceded
Scotland-
Haiti-
BTTS rate
Scotland-
Haiti-
Over 2.5 goals
Scotland-
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 54% vs implied 52% · edge +1.6 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 32%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Both teams demonstrate goal-scoring capabilities, with Scotland averaging 1.75 goals per match and Haiti showing high shot volumes and dangerous attacking players like Duckens Nazon. This supports an expectation of goals but also highlights defensive vulnerabilities that could lead to a competitive, goal-involved game.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Haiti

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Haiti yet.

Scotland

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Scotland yet.

Market aligned with main pickScotland to WinBet365 guide price · Model 41% vs implied 64% · edge -22.7 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 71%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Scotland Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Scotland's recent form is marked by two commanding wins scoring eight goals combined, signaling a sharp attacking edge and boost ahead of this opener. Haiti's form is less clear but their qualification campaign showed resilience and offensive activity, setting up a contest where Scotland's momentum is a key advantage.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Haiti wins
0Draws
0Scotland wins
Market aligned with main pickScotland to WinBet365 guide price · Model 41% vs implied 64% · edge -22.7 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
This is the first meeting between Haiti and Scotland, so no direct head-to-head data exists to inform the outcome. The unfamiliarity adds unpredictability, placing greater emphasis on recent form, tactical setup, and player quality to guide expectations.
Season team stats

World Cup

Haiti0
Played
Scotland0
Haiti0
Avg goals for
Scotland0
Haiti0
Avg goals against
Scotland0
Haiti0
Clean sheets
Scotland0
Market aligned with main pickScotland to WinBet365 guide price · Model 41% vs implied 64% · edge -22.7 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Scotland Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Scotland's season statistics reveal a balanced attack averaging 1.75 goals per match, supported by efficient finishing and structured play. Haiti's season data highlights a high shot volume but defensive fragility, conceding 13 goals in qualifiers, which Scotland can exploit through direct attacks and midfield scoring contributions.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3Haiti000000
4Scotland000000
11Haiti000000
While Group C standings are not yet established, Scotland's higher seeding and recent form position them as favorites to secure early points. Haiti's underdog status and long absence from the World Cup add emotional weight but limited competitive pressure at this stage.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Haiti Over 2.5
-Scotland Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 matches involving these teams and similar competitive contexts, Over 2.5 Goals trends indicate a moderate likelihood of multiple goals, driven by Scotland's recent scoring bursts and Haiti's offensive shot volume. The tempo and attacking intent from both sides suggest a game open to goal opportunities, especially in transitional phases and set-piece situations.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Haiti v Scotland prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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