Football Stats Hub

Eastleigh crestEastleigh
v
Southend crestSouthend

National League | Wed 30 Sep, 19:45

Eastleigh v Southend Stats

Data last updated: Tue 29 Sep 2026, 08:55 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This National League clash features Southend aiming to extend their strong early season form against mid-table Eastleigh. Southend sit second in the standings with 20 points, showcasing a potent attack averaging over three goals per game recently. Eastleigh, positioned 13th with 14 points, have struggled defensively, conceding nearly two goals per match. Southend's recent momentum and superior goal-scoring prowess set the tactical stage for an away victory, though Eastleigh's home resilience adds an element of uncertainty to the encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Southend to Win

  • Southend currently second in the National League with 20 points, showing strong form.
  • Southend averages 3.2 goals per game recently, indicating attacking strength.
  • Eastleigh concedes 1.8 goals per game, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities.
  • Southend's recent form includes 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate, suggesting open games.
  • H2H average goals stand at 2.6 over last 10 matches, supporting goal-rich encounters.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Southend to Win is favored due to their superior recent form and attacking output, reflected in a 70% and positive of 11.2%. Their ability to score heavily contrasts with Eastleigh's defensive frailties, making Southend's victory a logical expectation. The model is strong, supported by consistent goal-scoring trends and league positioning. No price warnings apply, reinforcing the bet as a solid value selection for standard stakes.

Model Chance70% model chance vs 58.8% implied (+11.2 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge70% model chance vs 58.8% implied (+11.2 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Goals ForSouthend 3.2 per game
Strong positive
Defensive WeaknessEastleigh concedes 1.8 per game
Positive
Over 2.5 Goals RateSouthend 100% recent matches
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Southend's attacking form and league standing make them the clear favorites to win this fixture. Their ability to consistently score goals, combined with Eastleigh's defensive struggles, suggests Southend will control the match and secure victory. Tactical discipline and momentum favor Southend's approach.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Southend's recent offensive efficiency and league position strongly indicate they will dominate this match, making their win the most probable outcome.”

Key Data Signals

Southend to Win evidence

Southend currently second in the National League with 20 points, showing strong form.

Southend averages 3.2 goals per game recently, indicating attacking strength.

Eastleigh concedes 1.8 goals per game, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities.

Southend's recent form includes 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate, suggesting open games.

What To Watch In The Data

Southend to Win notes

  • Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 2.6, indicating a tendency toward matches with multiple goals.
  • Southend's 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate recently further suggests a high-tempo game with attacking intent, making goal markets particularly relevant for this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Eastleigh1
Avg goals scored
Southend3.2
Eastleigh1.8
Avg goals conceded
Southend2
Eastleigh80%
BTTS rate
Southend100%
Eastleigh60%
Over 2.5 goals
Southend100%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +14.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 36%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Both teams have shown tendencies toward high-scoring games, with Southend's recent matches all exceeding 2.5 goals and Eastleigh also featuring a 60% rate. The head-to-head average of 2.6 goals supports expectations for an open game with multiple scoring chances and a high probability of both teams scoring.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSouthend to WinBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 59% · edge +11.2 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Southend Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
The 70% for Southend to Win sits against roughly 58.8% implied by the current price (+11.2 pts). Southend have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 4 for Eastleigh.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Eastleigh

LWLDL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 4L
26 Sep 2026A Harrogate Town1-4
19 Sep 2026H Carlisle1-0
15 Sep 2026A Sutton Utd1-2
12 Sep 2026H Boreham Wood1-1
04 Sep 2026A Altrincham1-2

Southend

LWWDW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 2D 2L
26 Sep 2026H Barrow2-4
19 Sep 2026A Gateshead6-1
15 Sep 2026H Tamworth3-1
12 Sep 2026A Carlisle2-2
05 Sep 2026H Yeovil Town3-2
Market aligned with main pickSouthend to WinBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 59% · edge +11.2 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
Southend Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Southend's recent form is markedly superior, accumulating 10 points with an average of 3.2 goals scored per game, compared to Eastleigh's 4 points and 1 goal per game. This contrast highlights Southend's offensive efficiency and momentum, positioning them as the dominant side going into this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Eastleigh Over 2.5
100%Southend Over 2.5
2.6H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 2.6, indicating a tendency toward matches with multiple goals. Southend's 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate recently further suggests a high-tempo game with attacking intent, making goal markets particularly relevant for this fixture.

Loading deeper match data…