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Aberdeen crestAberdeen
v
Kilmarnock crestKilmarnock

Premiership | Sat 05 Sep, 15:00

Aberdeen v Kilmarnock Stats

Data last updated: Thu 24 Sep 2026, 17:27 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Aberdeen face Kilmarnock in Premiership on Sat 05 Sep, 15:00. Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen: League Cup form offers Dons an escape from Premiership frustration. The scale of some defeats is difficult to ignore. Squad absences for Aberdeen may allow Kilmarnock to score, making 1-2 a coherent prediction despite its fragility.

BT4Y best bet

Aberdeen to win and both teams to score

  • At 7/2, Aberdeen to win and both teams to score implies roughly 22%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 30%.
  • Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
  • Aberdeen need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Aberdeen on 3 and Kilmarnock on 0.
  • The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 25% for Aberdeen and 50% for Kilmarnock.
  • Aberdeen to win and both teams to score needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 0.5 for Aberdeen and 1 for Kilmarnock are central to the read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 30% for Aberdeen to win and both teams to score sits against roughly 22% implied by the current price. Aberdeen need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Aberdeen on 3 and Kilmarnock on 0. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.

Model chance vs price30% model chance against roughly 22% implied
Positive
Aberdeen need the result edge to pair with scoring at.Visible data support
Positive
The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg.Visible data support
Positive
Read on for all our free predictions and betting.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Aberdeen Win & BTTS is the preferred angle because read on for all our free predictions and betting tips. Aberdeen need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Aberdeen on 3 and Kilmarnock on 0. Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Key Data Signals

Aberdeen to win and both teams to score evidence

Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.

Aberdeen need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Aberdeen on 3 and Kilmarnock on 0.

The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 25% for Aberdeen and 50% for Kilmarnock.

Aberdeen Win & BTTS needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 0.5 for Aberdeen and 1 for Kilmarnock are central to the read.

What To Watch In The Data

Aberdeen to win and both teams to score notes

  • Use the article-led angle and the visible data together; the strongest signal is where both point to the same match pattern.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Aberdeen0.5
Avg goals scored
Kilmarnock1
Aberdeen1.75
Avg goals conceded
Kilmarnock3.5
Aberdeen25%
BTTS rate
Kilmarnock50%
Aberdeen50%
Over 2.5 goals
Kilmarnock75%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 83% · edge -7 pts
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 58%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 46%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 Goals does not fully support the current price: recent Over 2.5 rates are 50% for Aberdeen and 75% for Kilmarnock, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAberdeen Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 71% · edge -2.2 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
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Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Aberdeen to WinBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 58%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Aberdeen Draw No Bet is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Aberdeen4.75
Avg corners for
Kilmarnock4.5
Aberdeen12.75
Avg total corners
Kilmarnock9.75
Aberdeen3.25
Avg yellow cards
Kilmarnock2
Aberdeen9.75
Avg shots
Kilmarnock10.5
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 58% · edge +11.2 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Over 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Aberdeen

LLLW
Last 51W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 3L
02 Sep 2026A Celtic0-3
30 Aug 2026H Rangers0-1
08 Aug 2026A Dundee0-2
01 Aug 2026H Heart Of Midlothian2-1

Kilmarnock

LLLL
Last 50W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 4L
02 Sep 2026H ST Mirren0-1
29 Aug 2026H Dundee Utd0-4
09 Aug 2026H Celtic1-5
02 Aug 2026A ST Johnstone3-4
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 85% vs implied 85% · edge +0.5 pts
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
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Aberdeen Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Aberdeen to WinBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

6Aberdeen wins
0Draws
4Kilmarnock wins
25 Apr 2026Aberdeen v Kilmarnock1-0
31 Jan 2026Kilmarnock v Aberdeen3-0
14 Dec 2025Aberdeen v Kilmarnock2-1
29 Oct 2025Kilmarnock v Aberdeen0-1
22 Feb 2025Aberdeen v Kilmarnock1-0
26 Dec 2024Kilmarnock v Aberdeen4-0
Market aligned with main pickAberdeen to WinBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 60% · edge +0.7 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 58%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The head-to-head sample gives context for Aberdeen to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Premiership

Aberdeen7
Played
Kilmarnock7
Aberdeen1
Avg goals for
Kilmarnock0.9
Aberdeen1.1
Avg goals against
Kilmarnock2.1
Aberdeen2
Clean sheets
Kilmarnock2
Market aligned with main pickAberdeen Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 71% · edge -2.2 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
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Aberdeen to WinBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Season data supports Aberdeen Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
7Aberdeen87223-1
12Kilmarnock57124-9
Aberdeen sit in position 7, while Kilmarnock sit in position 12, so table pressure belongs in the Aberdeen to win and both teams to score assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Aberdeen Over 2.5
75%Kilmarnock Over 2.5
2.2H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Aberdeen sit at 50% and Kilmarnock sit at 75% with the H2H average at 2.2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Aberdeen v Kilmarnock prediction

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