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USA crestUSA
v
Mexico crestMexico

Friendlies | Sun 04 Oct, 03:00

USA v Mexico Stats

Data last updated: Sat 03 Oct 2026, 08:23 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

The upcoming friendly between USA and Mexico promises an engaging contest with both sides showing attacking intent in recent matches. USA has averaged 2.4 goals per game while conceding 1.8, reflecting a somewhat open style, whereas Mexico’s defense has been more resolute, conceding just 0.6 goals on average but still maintaining a 60% rate of both teams scoring. Both teams have competitive recent form, with Mexico slightly ahead on points in friendlies. The match offers a tactical battle between USA’s offensive pressure and Mexico’s disciplined defense, setting the stage for a game where both teams are likely to find the net.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • USA averages 2.4 goals per game with an 80% BTTS rate in recent friendlies
  • Mexico concedes only 0.6 goals on average but has a 60% BTTS rate
  • Both teams average around 14 shots per game, indicating attacking opportunities
  • Recent matches show USA’s high BTTS and over 2.5 goals rates, supporting goal-scoring chances

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 76% chance for both teams to score, supported by USA’s strong attacking output and Mexico’s consistent ability to score despite a solid defense. USA’s 80% BTTS rate and Mexico’s 60% rate, combined with balanced shot volumes and recent goal trends, underpin this selection. The price offers positive value with a 16.1% edge. No data limitations affect in this pick, making it a solid choice based on attacking and defensive profiles.

Model Chance74.9% model chance vs 59.9% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
USA BTTS Rate80%
Strong positive
Mexico BTTS Rate60%
Positive
Value Edge74.9% model chance vs 59.9% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance74.9% model chance vs 59.9% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both teams have shown attacking intent and the ability to score in recent friendlies, making both teams to score a logical pick. USA’s offensive pressure combined with Mexico’s consistent scoring despite a tight defense suggests goals at both ends. This bet captures the dynamic nature of the fixture with solid supporting data.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Both Teams to Score

“This fixture features two teams with contrasting defensive styles but similar attacking ambitions, making both teams to score a compelling angle. USA’s high shot volume and Mexico’s ability to find the net despite defensive discipline create a balanced goal-scoring scenario.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

USA averages 2.4 goals per game with an 80% BTTS rate in recent friendlies

Mexico concedes only 0.6 goals on average but has a 60% BTTS rate

Both teams average around 14 shots per game, indicating attacking opportunities

Recent matches show USA’s high BTTS and over 2.5 goals rates, supporting goal-scoring chances

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • In the last 10 meetings, the average goals per game is 2.3, indicating a moderately open fixture historically.
  • USA’s recent 80% over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Mexico’s 20%, suggesting the tempo and attacking impetus from USA could push the game over 2.5 goals again.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

USA2.4
Avg goals scored
Mexico2
USA1.8
Avg goals conceded
Mexico0.6
USA80%
BTTS rate
Mexico60%
USA80%
Over 2.5 goals
Mexico20%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 51%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 33%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Recent form data shows USA scoring 2.4 goals per game with an 80% BTTS rate, while Mexico scores 2 goals per game with a 60% BTTS rate. This combination indicates a strong probability of goals from both sides, supported by balanced attacking and defensive tendencies.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Mexico Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 62%
2
Check odds @ 2
Mexico to WinBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 51%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
USA Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
The 74.9% for Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 59.9% implied by the current price (+15 pts). USA show a 80% BTTS rate and Mexico show a 60% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

USA

WWLWL
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 0D 3L
30 Sep 2026H Chile4-2
26 Sep 2026H Peru4-1
06 Jun 2026H Germany1-2
31 May 2026H Senegal3-2
01 Apr 2026H Portugal0-2

Mexico

DDWWW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 4D 0L
30 Sep 2026H Peru1-1
27 Sep 2026H Colombia1-1
05 Jun 2026H Serbia5-1
31 May 2026H Australia1-0
23 May 2026H Ghana2-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 79% vs implied 65% · edge +13.5 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
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Mexico Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 62%
2
Check odds @ 2
Mexico to WinBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 58%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
USA Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
USA to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
USA’s recent friendlies show a high BTTS rate of 80% and an over 2.5 goals rate of 80%, indicating open games with goals at both ends. Mexico’s 60% BTTS and solid defensive record suggest they can both score and keep games tight, supporting a balanced goal expectation.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%USA Over 2.5
20%Mexico Over 2.5
2.3H2H avg goals
In the last 10 meetings, the average goals per game is 2.3, indicating a moderately open fixture historically. USA’s recent 80% over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Mexico’s 20%, suggesting the tempo and attacking impetus from USA could push the game over 2.5 goals again.

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