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USA crestUSA
v
Mexico crestMexico

Friendlies | Sun 04 Oct, 03:00

USA v Mexico Stats

Data last updated: Sun 25 Oct 2026, 01:58 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

USA face Mexico in Friendlies on Sun 04 Oct, 03:00. USA come in with 9 recent points and 2.4 goals per match, while Mexico have 11 points and 2 goals per match in the same lens. In this competition context, game state, selection calls and recent rhythm matter more than a simple table position.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • At 1.67, Both Teams to Score implies roughly 60%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 75%.
  • USA show a 80% BTTS rate and Mexico show a 60% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
  • USA average 2.4 goals scored and Mexico average 2, so both attacking contributions need separating.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 75% for Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 60% implied by the current price. USA show a 80% BTTS rate and Mexico show a 60% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Model chance vs price75% model chance against roughly 60% implied
Strong positive
USA show a 80% BTTS rate and Mexico show a.Visible data support
Positive
USA average 2.4 goals scored and Mexico average 2, so.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Both Teams To Score is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers USA show a 80% BTTS rate and Mexico show a 60% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

USA show a 80% BTTS rate and Mexico show a 60% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

USA average 2.4 goals scored and Mexico average 2, so both attacking contributions need separating.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Compare both teams on scoring rate and clean-sheet record before trusting Both Teams To Score.
  • Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

USA2.4
Avg goals scored
Mexico2
USA1.8
Avg goals conceded
Mexico0.6
USA80%
BTTS rate
Mexico60%
USA80%
Over 2.5 goals
Mexico20%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 51%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 33%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Mexico Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Mexico to WinBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 51%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
USA Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
BTTS Yes is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

USA

WWLWL
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 0D 3L
30 Sep 2026H Chile4-2
26 Sep 2026H Peru4-1
06 Jun 2026H Germany1-2
31 May 2026H Senegal3-2
01 Apr 2026H Portugal0-2

Mexico

DDWWW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 4D 0L
30 Sep 2026H Peru1-1
27 Sep 2026H Colombia1-1
05 Jun 2026H Serbia5-1
31 May 2026H Australia1-0
23 May 2026H Ghana2-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 79% vs implied 71% · edge +7.5 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
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Mexico Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Mexico to WinBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 58%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
USA Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
USA to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%USA Over 2.5
20%Mexico Over 2.5
2.3H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: USA sit at 80% and Mexico sit at 20% with the H2H average at 2.3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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