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Match Context

Fixture analysis

RB Bragantino host Carabobo FC in a Sudamericana group-stage clash, with both sides still in the qualification mix. The reverse fixture was a tight, low-scoring affair, and both teams have shown defensive discipline in recent matches.

RB Bragantino crestRB Bragantino
v
Carabobo FC crestCarabobo FC

CONMEBOL Sudamericana | Thu 28 May, 01:30

RB Bragantino v Carabobo FC Stats

Data last updated: Thu 28 May 2026, 22:28 UK time
BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • RB Bragantino average just 1 goal conceded per game in recent form.
  • Carabobo FC have seen only 20% of their matches go Over 2.5 Goals.
  • Both teams combine for a low 30% Over 2.5 rate in recent games.
  • The only previous meeting ended with just 1 goal scored.
  • Carabobo FC concede just 0.6 goals per match recently.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

RB Bragantino Over 2.5 Rate40%
Positive
Carabobo FC Over 2.5 Rate20%
Strong positive
H2H Average Goals1.0
Strong positive
Carabobo FC Goals Against (recent)0.6 per game
Strong positive
RB Bragantino Goals Against (recent)1.0 per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals looks the value play here, with both RB Bragantino and Carabobo FC showing strong defensive numbers and a clear trend towards low-scoring matches. The reverse fixture was a tight 1-0, and Carabobo FC’s recent games have been especially cagey, conceding just 0.6 per match. Expect a controlled tempo and few clear chances.

Main risk

The main risk is that RB Bragantino’s attacking volume at home could force Carabobo FC into a more open game if an early goal arrives, which would increase the chances of a higher-scoring contest.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Low-scoring trend and defensive discipline

“Both teams have been tough to break down, and Carabobo FC’s defensive discipline on the road makes a high-scoring game unlikely. The low Over 2.5 rates and the first leg’s 1-0 result reinforce the value on a low total.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

RB Bragantino average just 1 goal conceded per game in recent form.

The only previous meeting ended with just 1 goal scored.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Check whether the lower-scoring side can contribute enough chances to support the market.
  • Final line-ups and price movement can change the value quickly.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

RB Bragantino5.6
Avg corners for
Carabobo FC4.2
RB Bragantino9.8
Avg total corners
Carabobo FC10.4
RB Bragantino2.6
Avg yellow cards
Carabobo FC2
RB Bragantino18.8
Avg shots
Carabobo FC10.2
Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 68% vs implied 46% · edge +22.4 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 59%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 5.5 CardsBetMGM guide price
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile and goal-market notes.

RB Bragantino2
Avg goals scored
Carabobo FC1.2
RB Bragantino1
Avg goals conceded
Carabobo FC0.6
RB Bragantino40%
BTTS rate
Carabobo FC20%
RB Bragantino40%
Over 2.5 goals
Carabobo FC20%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 53% · edge +13.4 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Player stats

Player props and player-level numbers.

Best player marketFernando Anytime GoalscorerFernando · 3 goals · 1.98 SOT/90
86/100
Check odds
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J. Obando 1+ Shot On TargetJ. Obando · 6.43 shots on target/90
84/100
Check odds
J. Obando 2+ ShotsJ. Obando · 6.43 shots/90
82/100
Check odds
Ryan Tavares To Assist / Key Pass AngleRyan Tavares · 1 assists · 5 key passes/90
76/100
Check odds
Fernando To Be FouledFernando · 3.96 fouls won/90
80/100
Check odds
S. Mendoza Card RiskS. Mendoza · 1 yellows · 3.51 fouls/90
80/100
Check odds
Fernando Anytime Goalscorer is backed by Fernando's recent output: 3 goals and 1.98 SOT/90 points to a player who can threaten if service reaches the box.
Fernando
FernandoRB Bragantino · Attacker
Goal threat93/100
Shots /903.17
SOT /901.98
J. Obando
J. ObandoCarabobo FC · Midfielder
Goal threat89/100
Shots /906.43
SOT /906.43
I. Pitta
I. PittaRB Bragantino · Attacker
Goal threat85/100
Shots /904.15
SOT /902.22
Filipinho
FilipinhoRB Bragantino · Attacker
Goal threat74/100
Shots /905.29
SOT /905.29
Vanderlan
VanderlanRB Bragantino · Defender
Goal threat58/100
Shots /904.09
SOT /904.09
Lucas Barbosa
Lucas BarbosaRB Bragantino · Midfielder
Goal threat30/100
Shots /904.58
SOT /901.02
S. Mendoza
S. MendozaCarabobo FC · Midfielder
Goal threat67/100
Shots /902.34
SOT /902.34
Matheus Fernandes
Matheus FernandesRB Bragantino · Midfielder
Goal threat1/100
Shots /900
SOT /900
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionCarabobo FC Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 55% vs implied 20% · edge +35.4 pts
5
Check odds @ 5
Load more odds for this section
Carabobo FC to WinBet365 guide price · model 45%
9
Check odds @ 9
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 68%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
5
Check odds @ 5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
RB Bragantino Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Carabobo FC Draw No Bet is supported by the form gap: Carabobo FC have 9 recent points compared with 7 for RB Bragantino, so the away result case has football support as well as price interest.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

RB Bragantino

DWLWL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 2L
21 May 2026A River Plate1-1
08 May 2026A Blooming6-0
01 May 2026H River Plate0-1
17 Apr 2026H Blooming3-2
10 Apr 2026A Carabobo FC0-1

Carabobo FC

WLWLW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 0D 2L
22 May 2026A Blooming2-0
08 May 2026H River Plate1-2
30 Apr 2026H Blooming2-0
16 Apr 2026A River Plate0-1
10 Apr 2026H RB Bragantino1-0
Best odds for this sectionCarabobo FC Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 55% vs implied 20% · edge +35.4 pts
5
Check odds @ 5
Load more odds for this section
Carabobo FC to WinBet365 guide price · model 45%
9
Check odds @ 9
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
5
Check odds @ 5
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.05
Check odds @ 1.05
RB Bragantino Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
RB Bragantino to WinBetMGM guide price · model 39%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Carabobo FC Draw No Bet is supported by the form gap: Carabobo FC have 9 recent points compared with 7 for RB Bragantino, so the away result case has football support as well as price interest.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0RB Bragantino wins
0Draws
1Carabobo FC wins
10 Apr 2026Carabobo FC v RB Bragantino1-0
Best odds for this sectionCarabobo FC to WinBet365 guide price · Model 45% vs implied 11% · edge +34.3 pts
9
Check odds @ 9
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
5
Check odds @ 5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
RB Bragantino to WinBetMGM guide price · model 39%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Carabobo FC to Win is supported by the form gap: Carabobo FC have 9 recent points compared with 7 for RB Bragantino, so the away result case has football support as well as price interest.
Season team stats

CONMEBOL Sudamericana

RB Bragantino6
Played
Carabobo FC6
RB Bragantino2
Avg goals for
Carabobo FC1
RB Bragantino0.8
Avg goals against
Carabobo FC0.8
RB Bragantino2
Clean sheets
Carabobo FC3
Best odds for this sectionCarabobo FC Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 55% vs implied 20% · edge +35.4 pts
5
Check odds @ 5
Load more odds for this section
Carabobo FC to WinBet365 guide price · model 45%
9
Check odds @ 9
RB Bragantino Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
RB Bragantino to WinBetMGM guide price · model 39%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Carabobo FC Draw No Bet is supported by the form gap: Carabobo FC have 9 recent points compared with 7 for RB Bragantino, so the away result case has football support as well as price interest.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2RB Bragantino1063127
3Carabobo FC963031
Both teams are in the qualification mix and have relied on solid defensive records, supporting a low-scoring outcome.
Key match trends

Over 2.5 and recent goal-pattern context.

40%RB Bragantino Over 2.5
20%Carabobo FC Over 2.5
1H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: RB Bragantino sit at 40% and Carabobo FC sit at 20% with the H2H average at 1 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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