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Gimnasia M. crestGimnasia M.
v
Newells Old Boys crestNewells Old Boys

Liga Profesional Argentina | Mon 12 Oct, 22:30

Gimnasia M. v Newells Old Boys Stats

Data last updated: Sun 11 Oct 2026, 08:59 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Liga Profesional Argentina clash features Newells Old Boys visiting Gimnasia M. Both teams are closely matched in the league standings, sitting sixth and seventh respectively with 17 points each. Newells Old Boys have shown more defensive solidity recently, conceding just 0.4 goals per game compared to Gimnasia M.'s 1.4. tends to play a more open style, reflected in their higher over 2.5 goals rate, while Newells Old Boys rely on a compact defensive shape and efficient counterattacks. The match promises tactical intrigue with Newells Old Boys aiming to capitalize on their defensive strengths and clinch a vital away win.

BT4Y best bet

Newells Old Boys to Win

  • Newells Old Boys have a strong defensive record, conceding only 0.4 goals per game recently.
  • averages 14 shots per game, indicating attacking intent but defensive vulnerability.
  • Newells Old Boys' attack is less prolific but more efficient, with key players like I. Ramírez contributing goal threat.
  • Recent form shows Newells Old Boys with 7 points and Gimnasia M. with 5, favoring the visitors.
  • The league table is tight, with both teams on 17 points, making this a crucial fixture for positioning.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Newells Old Boys to win based on their superior defensive record and efficient attacking output. Despite being underdogs in price, the implied chance is significantly lower than the model's 51.4% win probability, indicating strong value. Newells Old Boys' ability to limit goals conceded and capitalize on chances, combined with Gimnasia M.'s defensive frailties, supports this selection. The level is high at 79%, reflecting consistent data signals and tactical context favoring an away win.

Defensive SolidityNewells concede 0.4 goals per game
Strong positive
Model Win Probability51.4% chance for Newells Old Boys
Strong positive
Price vs Model42% model chance vs 27% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent FormNewells have 7 points vs Gimnasia's 5
Positive
Attacking EfficiencyKey players like I. Ramírez contribute goal threat
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Newells Old Boys' disciplined defensive approach and efficient attack make them the likely winners in this tightly contested fixture. Their recent form and ability to restrict goals conceded provide a tactical edge over Gimnasia M., who are more vulnerable at the back. This combination of form and defensive strength underpins the away win selection.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · tactical and form advantage

“Newells Old Boys' defensive resilience paired with their clinical finishing on the break gives them a clear tactical advantage in this match-up, making their win a compelling prospect despite the away setting.”

Key Data Signals

Newells Old Boys to Win evidence

Newells Old Boys have a strong defensive record, conceding only 0.4 goals per game recently.

Averages 14 shots per game, indicating attacking intent but defensive vulnerability.

Newells Old Boys' attack is less prolific but more efficient, with key players like I. Ramírez contributing goal threat.

Recent form shows Newells Old Boys with 7 points and Gimnasia M. With 5, favoring the visitors.

What To Watch In The Data

Newells Old Boys to Win notes

  • In the last meeting between these teams, the average goals scored was low at 1, indicating tight defensive battles.
  • Recent trends show Gimnasia M. often involved in higher-scoring games, but Newells Old Boys tend to keep matches under 2.5 goals.
  • This suggests a controlled tempo with limited goal-scoring chances, aligning with a low-scoring, tactical encounter.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Gimnasia M.1
Avg goals scored
Newells Old Boys0.6
Gimnasia M.1.4
Avg goals conceded
Newells Old Boys0.4
Gimnasia M.20%
BTTS rate
Newells Old Boys40%
Gimnasia M.60%
Over 2.5 goals
Newells Old Boys0%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 60% · edge +0.8 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 22%
5
Check odds @ 5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
has a 60% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, reflecting their open style and defensive vulnerabilities. In contrast, Newells Old Boys have not recorded any over 2.5 matches recently, indicating a more cautious, defense-first approach. Both teams to score is less frequent, with Newells at 40% and Gimnasia M. at 20%, suggesting a low-scoring game with limited BTTS likelihood.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickNewells Old Boys to WinBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 27% · edge +15 pts
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
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Newells Old Boys Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
The 42% for Newells Old Boys to Win sits against roughly 27% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Newells Old Boys have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 5 for Gimnasia M..
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Gimnasia M.

LDLDW
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 4L
05 Oct 2026A Estudiantes L.P.0-3
19 Sep 2026H Deportivo Riestra0-0
11 Sep 2026A Defensa Y Justicia0-2
05 Sep 2026H Boca Juniors2-2
30 Aug 2026A Independiente3-0

Newells Old Boys

DWDDD
Last 51W 4D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 5D 2L
03 Oct 2026H Lanus0-0
20 Sep 2026A Platense1-0
11 Sep 2026H Velez Sarsfield1-1
06 Sep 2026A Rosario Central1-1
31 Aug 2026A Estudiantes L.P.0-0
Market aligned with main pickNewells Old Boys to WinBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 27% · edge +15 pts
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Newells Old Boys Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Recent form favors Newells Old Boys, who have accumulated 7 points compared to Gimnasia M.'s 5 in their last matches. Newells' defensive record of conceding only 0.4 goals per game contrasts with Gimnasia M.'s 1.4, suggesting Newells are better organized and harder to break down, which is crucial in tight league encounters.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Gimnasia M. Over 2.5
0%Newells Old Boys Over 2.5
1H2H avg goals
In the last meeting between these teams, the average goals scored was low at 1, indicating tight defensive battles. Recent trends show Gimnasia M. often involved in higher-scoring games, but Newells Old Boys tend to keep matches under 2.5 goals. This suggests a controlled tempo with limited goal-scoring chances, aligning with a low-scoring, tactical encounter.

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