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Burgos crestBurgos
v
Granada CF crestGranada CF

Segunda División | Mon 12 Oct, 15:15

Burgos v Granada CF Stats

Data last updated: Sun 11 Oct 2026, 08:58 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Burgos hosts Granada CF in a Segunda División clash where Burgos holds a slight edge in the standings and recent form. Burgos has accumulated 14 points, sitting 7th, while Granada CF is 9th with 11 points. Burgos has shown defensive solidity, conceding fewer goals on average, and aims to capitalize on home advantage. Granada CF's attack is more prolific but their defensive frailties could be exposed. Both teams have shown tendencies for open play, but Burgos' tactical discipline and recent momentum make them favorites in this encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Burgos to Win

  • Burgos leads the standings with 14 points versus Granada CF's 11.
  • Burgos concedes fewer goals per game (0.8) compared to Granada CF (2.4).
  • Granada CF averages nearly double the shots per game (19.2) but with defensive vulnerabilities.
  • Burgos has a 60% Over 2.5 goals rate, Granada CF 80%, indicating potential for goals but Burgos' defense is more reliable.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 74% chance for Burgos to win, reflecting their stronger defensive record and home advantage. Despite Granada CF's higher shot volume and attacking output, Burgos' ability to limit goals conceded and maintain form supports this pick. The at 2.38 offer positive value with a 32% edge over implied probability. No data limitations affect , making Burgos to Win a solid selection based on current form and tactical balance.

Model Win Probability74%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance57% model chance vs 42% implied (+15 pts)
Positive
Value Edge57% model chance vs 42% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Defensive SolidityBurgos concedes 0.8 goals per game vs Granada CF's 2.4
Strong positive
Attacking PressureGranada CF averages 19.2 shots per game, Burgos 9.4
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Burgos' recent defensive resilience and home form provide a tactical foundation for victory against a Granada CF side that creates chances but struggles defensively. The data supports Burgos as the more balanced team likely to secure three points in this fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Burgos' defensive organization and home advantage create a strong platform against Granada CF's attacking but leaky side, making a home win the most plausible outcome.”

Key Data Signals

Burgos to Win evidence

Burgos leads the standings with 14 points versus Granada CF's 11.

Burgos concedes fewer goals per game (0.8) compared to Granada CF (2.4).

Granada CF averages nearly double the shots per game (19.2) but with defensive vulnerabilities.

Burgos has a 60% Over 2.5 goals rate, Granada CF 80%, indicating potential for goals but Burgos' defense is more reliable.

What To Watch In The Data

Burgos to Win notes

  • In the last six meetings, the average goals per game is 2, indicating moderate scoring.
  • Both teams' recent Over 2.5 goals rates suggest an open tempo, but Burgos' defensive discipline may keep the total goals around this average, supporting a competitive match with scoring chances for both sides.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Burgos1.4
Avg goals scored
Granada CF1.6
Burgos0.8
Avg goals conceded
Granada CF2.4
Burgos60%
BTTS rate
Granada CF80%
Burgos60%
Over 2.5 goals
Granada CF80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 60%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Both teams have shown a tendency for matches with multiple goals, with Burgos at 60% and Granada CF at 80% Over 2.5 goals rate. Granada CF's defensive struggles increase the likelihood of goals, but Burgos' better defensive record may limit the total, suggesting a competitive but not overly high-scoring game.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBurgos to WinBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
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Burgos Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 60%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
The 57% for Burgos to Win sits against roughly 42% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Burgos have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 4 for Granada CF.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Burgos

LWWWD
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 2L
03 Oct 2026A Almeria1-2
27 Sep 2026H Eldense1-0
20 Sep 2026A Las Palmas2-1
11 Sep 2026H AD Ceuta FC3-1
06 Sep 2026A Oviedo0-0

Granada CF

WLLDL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 3L
04 Oct 2026A Real Sociedad II3-2
26 Sep 2026H FC Andorra2-3
20 Sep 2026A Leganes2-3
12 Sep 2026H Albacete1-1
06 Sep 2026A Eibar0-3
Market aligned with main pickBurgos to WinBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
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Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 86%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Burgos Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Burgos has collected 10 points recently, showing steady form and defensive improvements, conceding only 0.8 goals per game. Granada CF's recent 4 points and higher goals conceded per match reflect defensive vulnerabilities that Burgos can exploit, reinforcing the home win outlook.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Burgos Over 2.5
80%Granada CF Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
In the last six meetings, the average goals per game is 2, indicating moderate scoring. Both teams' recent Over 2.5 goals rates suggest an open tempo, but Burgos' defensive discipline may keep the total goals around this average, supporting a competitive match with scoring chances for both sides.

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