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Tenerife crestTenerife
v
Girona crestGirona

Segunda División | Mon 12 Oct, 20:00

Tenerife v Girona Stats

Data last updated: Sun 11 Oct 2026, 08:58 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Segunda División clash features Tenerife hosting Girona in a fixture where Girona's recent form and tactical discipline stand out. Girona sits fifth in the table with 14 points, showing defensive solidity by conceding just 0.6 goals per game, while Tenerife is 14th with 11 points and a leaky defense allowing 2 goals per match. Girona's ability to control games and capitalize on chances contrasts with Tenerife's struggles at the back, setting the stage for an away win in a contest where Girona's tactical organization and attacking threats could prove decisive.

BT4Y best bet

Girona to Win

  • Girona ranks 5th with 14 points, Tenerife 14th with 11 points
  • Girona concedes only 0.6 goals per game, Tenerife concedes 2
  • Girona averages 13.4 shots and 4.6 shots on target per game, Tenerife 9.6 and 2.8 respectively
  • Asprilla has 4 goals and 2.28 shots on target per 90 minutes
  • Both teams have a 40% rate of matches over 2.5 goals, indicating moderate scoring potential

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Girona's strong defensive record and superior recent form underpin the 70% for an away win. Their higher shot volume and key players like Y. Asprilla, who averages over 2 shots on target per 90 minutes, provide a clear attacking edge. Tenerife's defensive vulnerabilities and lower scoring rate further tilt the balance. The model sees value at current of 2.6, reflecting Girona's capacity to control the match and convert chances efficiently. No data limitations affect this assessment, supporting in the pick.

Model Chance53.5% model chance vs 38.5% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Girona Defensive Strength0.6 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Girona Attacking Volume13.4 shots per game
Positive
Tenerife Defensive Weakness2 goals conceded per game
Negative
Key Player ImpactY. Asprilla 4 goals, 2.28 SOT/90
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Girona's tactical discipline and attacking efficiency make them the favored side in this fixture. Their ability to limit Tenerife's scoring chances while generating quality opportunities themselves is backed by strong recent form and defensive metrics, making an away win the most probable outcome.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Girona to Win

“Girona's blend of defensive resilience and attacking threat, led by players like Y. Asprilla, positions them well to secure victory on the road against a defensively vulnerable Tenerife side.”

Key Data Signals

Girona to Win evidence

Girona ranks 5th with 14 points, Tenerife 14th with 11 points

Girona concedes only 0.6 goals per game, Tenerife concedes 2

Girona averages 13.4 shots and 4.6 shots on target per game, Tenerife 9.6 and 2.8 respectively

Asprilla has 4 goals and 2.28 shots on target per 90 minutes

What To Watch In The Data

Girona to Win notes

  • Over the last ten matches, the average goals in Tenerife vs Girona fixtures is 2.1, with both teams showing a 40% rate of over 2.5 goals games.
  • This suggests a moderate tempo with potential for goals, driven by Tenerife's openness and Girona's attacking capabilities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Tenerife1.2
Avg goals scored
Girona1.4
Tenerife2
Avg goals conceded
Girona0.6
Tenerife60%
BTTS rate
Girona40%
Tenerife40%
Over 2.5 goals
Girona40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 55% · edge +8.7 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 25%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 41%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Both teams show a 40% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, suggesting moderate scoring potential. Tenerife's higher BTTS rate at 60% contrasts with Girona's 40%, indicating Tenerife's matches are more open, but Girona's defensive strength may limit overall goals, balancing the goal-scoring outlook.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickGirona to WinBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
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Girona Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 42%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The 53.5% for Girona to Win sits against roughly 38.5% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Girona have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 5 for Tenerife.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Tenerife

LDLWD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 3L
05 Oct 2026A Cordoba2-3
26 Sep 2026H Cadiz1-1
19 Sep 2026A Castellón0-5
13 Sep 2026H Leganes2-0
05 Sep 2026A Real Sociedad II1-1

Girona

DWWLW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 2L
04 Oct 2026H Mallorca0-0
25 Sep 2026H Albacete2-0
19 Sep 2026A Cadiz2-1
12 Sep 2026H Castellón1-2
05 Sep 2026A Sporting Gijon2-0
Market aligned with main pickGirona to WinBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Girona Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Girona's recent form is superior, accumulating 10 points compared to Tenerife's 5 in recent matches. Girona's defensive solidity and consistent goal threat have translated into better results, reinforcing in their ability to secure an away win in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Tenerife Over 2.5
40%Girona Over 2.5
2.1H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches, the average goals in Tenerife vs Girona fixtures is 2.1, with both teams showing a 40% rate of over 2.5 goals games. This suggests a moderate tempo with potential for goals, driven by Tenerife's openness and Girona's attacking capabilities.

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