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Barletta crestBarletta
v
Cavese crestCavese

Serie C - Girone C | Mon 12 Oct, 19:30

Barletta v Cavese Stats

Data last updated: Sun 11 Oct 2026, 09:00 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie C - Girone C fixture features Barletta hosting Cavese in a contest where Cavese arrives with stronger recent form and offensive output. Cavese has accumulated 7 points in recent matches, scoring an average of 2 goals per game, while Barletta has managed only 2 points and 0.6 goals per game. Both teams have conceded 1.8 goals on average, indicating defensive vulnerabilities. Cavese's superior attacking rhythm and mid-table standing suggest they will seek to capitalize on Barletta's struggles and secure an away victory in this Monday evening clash.

BT4Y best bet

Cavese to Win

  • Cavese holds a 70% to win, reflecting strong in their victory.
  • Barletta has scored just 0.6 goals per game recently, while Cavese averages 2 goals per game.
  • Both teams concede 1.8 goals per match, indicating defensive openness that favors Cavese's attack.
  • Cavese's recent form yields 7 points compared to Barletta's 2, showing momentum advantage.
  • Over 2.5 goals occur in 60% of Cavese's matches, supporting an attacking game environment.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Cavese to win due to their superior recent form and attacking efficiency, scoring twice as many goals per game as Barletta. Despite both teams conceding similarly, Cavese's offensive edge and higher points tally create a strong probability of victory. The at 3.1 offer positive value against an implied chance of 32.3%, making this a compelling selection without price caution. Data quality is solid with no limitations, reinforcing in the prediction.

Model Win Probability70%
Strong positive
Recent Goals ScoredCavese 2.0 vs Barletta 0.6 per game
Strong positive
Recent PointsCavese 7 vs Barletta 2
Strong positive
Implied Chance vs Model47.3% model chance vs 32.3% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Defensive ConcessionBoth concede 1.8 goals per game
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Cavese's clear attacking superiority and better recent results make them the logical choice for victory. Their ability to score consistently while Barletta struggles offensively underpins this selection, supported by a solid points gap and goal difference in recent matches.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Cavese's offensive momentum and recent form create a strong tactical and statistical case for an away win, especially given Barletta's scoring difficulties and defensive vulnerabilities.”

Key Data Signals

Cavese to Win evidence

Cavese holds a 70% to win, reflecting strong in their victory.

Barletta has scored just 0.6 goals per game recently, while Cavese averages 2 goals per game.

Both teams concede 1.8 goals per match, indicating defensive openness that favors Cavese's attack.

Cavese's recent form yields 7 points compared to Barletta's 2, showing momentum advantage.

What To Watch In The Data

Cavese to Win notes

  • In the last two head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.5, indicating moderately low-scoring encounters.
  • However, Cavese's recent matches show a 60% rate of Over 2.5 Goals, suggesting a trend toward more open and attacking games that could influence this fixture's tempo and scoring potential.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Barletta0.6
Avg goals scored
Cavese2
Barletta1.8
Avg goals conceded
Cavese1.8
Barletta60%
BTTS rate
Cavese60%
Barletta40%
Over 2.5 goals
Cavese60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 55% · edge +12.1 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 67%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 31%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Both teams have a 60% rate of matches featuring both teams to score, and Cavese averages 2 goals per game while Barletta scores less than one. The defensive concession of 1.8 goals per match on both sides suggests an open game with goal-scoring chances for both teams, supporting an expectation of goals and BTTS possibilities.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickCavese to WinBetfred guide price · Model 47% vs implied 32% · edge +15 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
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Cavese Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
The 47.3% for Cavese to Win sits against roughly 32.3% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Cavese have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 2 for Barletta.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Barletta

LLDDL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 4D 3L
03 Oct 2026A Giugliano0-1
27 Sep 2026H Potenza1-4
19 Sep 2026A Catania0-0
15 Sep 2026H Salernitana1-1
11 Sep 2026A Casarano1-3

Cavese

WWLLD
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 3L
03 Oct 2026H Casertana2-0
26 Sep 2026H Savoia4-2
20 Sep 2026A Potenza2-4
15 Sep 2026H Sorrento2-3
12 Sep 2026A Cosenza0-0
Market aligned with main pickCavese to WinBetfred guide price · Model 47% vs implied 32% · edge +15 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Cavese Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Cavese's recent form is markedly better, with 7 points gained compared to Barletta's 2. Cavese's ability to score twice per game contrasts with Barletta's struggles to find the net, highlighting a momentum advantage that favors Cavese's chances of securing the win.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Barletta Over 2.5
60%Cavese Over 2.5
1.5H2H avg goals
In the last two head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.5, indicating moderately low-scoring encounters. However, Cavese's recent matches show a 60% rate of Over 2.5 Goals, suggesting a trend toward more open and attacking games that could influence this fixture's tempo and scoring potential.

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