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Chapecoense-sc crestChapecoense-sc
v
Atletico Paranaense crestAtletico Paranaense

Serie A | Mon 12 Oct, 23:30

Chapecoense-sc v Atletico Paranaense Stats

Data last updated: Sun 11 Oct 2026, 08:55 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Chapecoense-sc faces Atletico Paranaense in a Serie A clash where goal-scoring potential is high. Atletico Paranaense, sitting 4th in the league, bring a potent attack averaging 2.2 goals per game, while Chapecoense-sc, despite struggling near the bottom, have shown openness in defense conceding 2.2 goals per match. Both teams have strong recent tendencies for high-scoring games, setting the stage for an open encounter with multiple goal opportunities expected.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Atletico Paranaense averages 2.2 goals scored and concedes 2.4 per game.
  • Chapecoense-sc concedes 2.2 goals per match and scores 1 on average.
  • Both teams have high Over 2.5 Goals rates: 100% for Atletico Paranaense, 80% for Chapecoense-sc.
  • Recent form shows both sides involved in high-scoring matches, supporting Over 2.5 Goals.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.8 over the last 10 meetings.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Over 2.5 Goals at a strong 74.5% chance, reflecting both teams' attacking strengths and defensive vulnerabilities. Atletico Paranaense's perfect Over 2.5 record this season and Chapecoense-sc's openness at the back create a fertile environment for multiple goals. The 23.2% and a fair price of 1.95 make this a compelling selection. Player data, such as K. Viveros's goal threat and Chapecoense-sc's attacking attempts, further reinforce the likelihood of a high-scoring game.

Model Chance66.3% model chance vs 51.3% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge66.3% model chance vs 51.3% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Atletico Paranaense Over 2.5 Rate100%
Strong positive
Chapecoense-sc Defensive Concession2.2 goals per game
Positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals2.8 goals
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with both teams pushing forward, especially Atletico Paranaense who have a strong scoring record. Chapecoense-sc's defensive struggles suggest multiple goals are likely, making Over 2.5 Goals a sensible choice based on tactical openness and recent scoring data.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match attacking and defensive dynamics

“This fixture features a clear attacking edge from Atletico Paranaense combined with Chapecoense-sc's defensive frailties, setting the scene for a lively, goal-rich encounter.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Atletico Paranaense averages 2.2 goals scored and concedes 2.4 per game.

Chapecoense-sc concedes 2.2 goals per match and scores 1 on average.

Both teams have high Over 2.5 Goals rates: 100% for Atletico Paranaense, 80% for Chapecoense-sc.

Recent form shows both sides involved in high-scoring matches, supporting Over 2.5 Goals.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.8, aligning with the Over 2.5 Goals trend.
  • This sample suggests a history of open contests with multiple goals, driven by attacking tempo and defensive gaps on both sides.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Chapecoense-sc1
Avg goals scored
Atletico Paranaense2.2
Chapecoense-sc2.2
Avg goals conceded
Atletico Paranaense2.4
Chapecoense-sc80%
BTTS rate
Atletico Paranaense100%
Chapecoense-sc80%
Over 2.5 goals
Atletico Paranaense100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
2
Check odds @ 2
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 30%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Both teams have high BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals rates this season, with Atletico Paranaense at 100% Over 2.5 and Chapecoense-sc at 80%. Their attacking output combined with defensive concessions supports a game with several goals and both sides likely to score.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Atletico Paranaense Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Atletico Paranaense to WinBetMGM guide price · model 58%
2
Check odds @ 2
Chapecoense-sc to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
DrawBetfred guide price · model 25%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Chapecoense-sc Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
The 66.3% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 51.3% implied by the current price (+15 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Chapecoense-sc and 100% for Atletico Paranaense, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Chapecoense-sc

LDLWL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
08 Oct 2026A Vitoria0-4
19 Sep 2026A Atletico-MG1-1
12 Sep 2026H Internacional1-2
06 Sep 2026A Corinthians2-1
30 Aug 2026A Gremio1-3

Atletico Paranaense

DWDLD
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 5D 1L
09 Oct 2026H Atletico-MG2-2
20 Sep 2026H Bahia2-1
12 Sep 2026A Coritiba3-3
06 Sep 2026A Cruzeiro1-3
30 Aug 2026H Fluminense3-3
Best odds for this sectionAtletico Paranaense Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 82%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Atletico Paranaense to WinBetMGM guide price · model 58%
2
Check odds @ 2
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Chapecoense-sc to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
DrawBetfred guide price · model 25%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Chapecoense-sc Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Recent matches show both teams frequently involved in high-scoring games, with Chapecoense-sc's Over 2.5 rate at 80% and Atletico Paranaense's perfect 100%. This trend reflects current attacking momentum and defensive vulnerabilities, reinforcing the likelihood of a goal-rich fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Chapecoense-sc Over 2.5
100%Atletico Paranaense Over 2.5
2.8H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.8, aligning with the Over 2.5 Goals trend. This sample suggests a history of open contests with multiple goals, driven by attacking tempo and defensive gaps on both sides.

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