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U.N.A.M. - Pumas crestU.N.A.M. - Pumas
v
Cruz Azul crestCruz Azul

Liga MX | Mon 12 Oct, 02:15

U.N.A.M. - Pumas v Cruz Azul Stats

Data last updated: Mon 12 Oct 2026, 16:35 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Cruz Azul travels to face U.N.A.M. - Pumas in a Liga MX clash where recent form and offensive firepower set the stage for a competitive encounter. Cruz Azul sits higher in the standings and has accumulated more points recently, showcasing a more potent attack averaging 2.2 goals per game compared to Pumas' 1.2. Both teams have similar tendencies for over 2.5 goals and BTTS outcomes, suggesting an open game. Tactical discipline and key attacking roles will be crucial as Cruz Azul aims to capitalize on their momentum and secure a valuable away victory.

BT4Y best bet

Cruz Azul to Win

  • Cruz Azul leads the standings and has earned 10 points recently versus Pumas' 4.
  • Cruz Azul averages 2.2 goals per game, nearly double Pumas' 1.2 scoring rate.
  • Both teams have a 60% rate for over 2.5 goals and BTTS, indicating attacking openness.
  • Cruz Azul averages 17.2 shots with 6.8 on target per game, showing offensive pressure.
  • Pumas have a higher average of corners but concede more goals, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a strong 70% chance for a Cruz Azul win, reflecting their superior recent form, higher league position, and more effective attack. Cruz Azul's offensive metrics, including shots and goals per game, outpace Pumas significantly, supporting the away win pick. Defensive frailties in Pumas and Cruz Azul's ability to create quality chances underpin this . There is no price warning, and the offer positive value with a 20% edge, making this a solid selection based on data and football context.

Model Win Probability70%
Strong positive
Recent Form PointsCruz Azul 10 vs Pumas 4
Strong positive
Goals Per GameCruz Azul 2.2 vs Pumas 1.2
Strong positive
Shots on Target Per GameCruz Azul 6.8 vs Pumas 4.4
Positive
League PositionCruz Azul 7th vs Pumas 13th
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Cruz Azul's superior attacking form and higher league standing make them the tactical and statistical favorite to win this fixture. Their ability to generate more shots and convert chances should prove decisive against a Pumas side struggling for consistency and defensive solidity.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Cruz Azul's offensive efficiency and recent momentum position them well to claim victory, especially given Pumas' defensive vulnerabilities and lower scoring output.”

Key Data Signals

Cruz Azul to Win evidence

Cruz Azul leads the standings and has earned 10 points recently versus Pumas' 4.

Cruz Azul averages 2.2 goals per game, nearly double Pumas' 1.2 scoring rate.

Both teams have a 60% rate for over 2.5 goals and BTTS, indicating attacking openness.

Cruz Azul averages 17.2 shots with 6.8 on target per game, showing offensive pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

Cruz Azul to Win notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.7, with both teams frequently contributing to the scoreline.
  • This trend supports expectations for an open game with multiple goals, consistent with both sides' recent over 2.5 goals rates and attacking styles.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas1.2
Avg goals scored
Cruz Azul2.2
U.N.A.M. - Pumas2
Avg goals conceded
Cruz Azul1.6
U.N.A.M. - Pumas60%
BTTS rate
Cruz Azul60%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas60%
Over 2.5 goals
Cruz Azul60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 64% · edge +9.6 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 80%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 62%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 31%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Both teams have a 60% rate for over 2.5 goals and BTTS in recent matches, indicating a tendency for open, attacking games. Cruz Azul's higher scoring average and Pumas' defensive concessions support the likelihood of goals from both sides, making goal markets attractive in this fixture.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickCruz Azul to WinBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Cruz Azul Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 62%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
The 65% for Cruz Azul to Win sits against roughly 50% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Cruz Azul have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 4 for U.N.A.M.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

LDLWL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
27 Sep 2026H Atletico San Luis2-3
20 Sep 2026A Atlas1-1
14 Sep 2026A Guadalajara Chivas0-3
11 Sep 2026H Leon3-1
29 Aug 2026A Club Tijuana0-2

Cruz Azul

DLWWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 4L
26 Sep 2026H Toluca3-3
20 Sep 2026A Monterrey0-1
13 Sep 2026H Club America4-3
07 Sep 2026H Santos Laguna1-0
29 Aug 2026A Necaxa3-1
Market aligned with main pickCruz Azul to WinBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Cruz Azul Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Recent form strongly favors Cruz Azul, who have collected 10 points compared to Pumas' 4 in their last matches. Cruz Azul's higher goal output and better defensive record in this period underline their momentum and readiness to secure a win in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%U.N.A.M. - Pumas Over 2.5
60%Cruz Azul Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.7, with both teams frequently contributing to the scoreline. This trend supports expectations for an open game with multiple goals, consistent with both sides' recent over 2.5 goals rates and attacking styles.

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