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Aarhus crestAarhus
v
Sonderjyske crestSonderjyske

Superliga | Mon 12 Oct, 18:00

Aarhus v Sonderjyske Stats

Data last updated: Sun 11 Oct 2026, 08:59 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Superliga clash between Aarhus and Sonderjyske features two teams struggling near the bottom of the table, both eager to secure points to climb out of the relegation zone. Recent matches have shown defensive vulnerabilities on both sides, with Aarhus conceding 2 goals per game and Sonderjyske leaking 2.8. The tactical setup suggests an open game with attacking intent from both teams, increasing the likelihood of multiple goals. With both sides pushing for results, this fixture promises end-to-end action and goal-scoring opportunities.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Both teams have high over 2.5 goals rates: Aarhus 60%, Sonderjyske 80%.
  • Recent H2H matches average 3.9 goals per game over 10 meetings.
  • Aarhus averages 15.4 shots per game with 4 on target, Sonderjyske 12 shots and 4 on target.
  • Sonderjyske’s B. Tambedou is a key attacking threat with 3.28 shots and 1.97 shots on target per 90 minutes.
  • Both teams concede over 2 goals per game, indicating defensive frailties conducive to high scoring.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies a 53.3% chance for Over 3.5 Goals, reflecting the attacking tendencies and defensive weaknesses of both Aarhus and Sonderjyske. The high average goals in their recent head-to-head (3.9) and elevated over 2.5 goals rates support this. Both teams generate significant shot volumes and have key attackers like J. Tambedou who consistently threaten goal. The offer positive value with a 7.8% edge, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling selection for this fixture.

Model Chance53.3% model chance vs 45.5% implied (+7.8 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance53.3% model chance vs 45.5% implied (+7.8 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge53.3% model chance vs 45.5% implied (+7.8 pts)
Strong positive
Recent H2H Goals Average3.9 goals per game
Strong positive
Team Over 2.5 RatesAarhus 60%, Sonderjyske 80%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and high-tempo match as both Aarhus and Sonderjyske seek to escape the relegation zone. Defensive lapses and attacking intent from key forwards like J. Tambedou suggest a game ripe for multiple goals. The data supports Over 3.5 Goals as a strong tactical and statistical outcome for this fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and defensive frailty

“This fixture’s attacking profiles and defensive vulnerabilities make Over 3.5 Goals a natural outcome. Both sides have shown they can score and concede freely, setting the stage for a goal-rich encounter.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Both teams have high over 2.5 goals rates: Aarhus 60%, Sonderjyske 80%.

Recent H2H matches average 3.9 goals per game over 10 meetings.

Aarhus averages 15.4 shots per game with 4 on target, Sonderjyske 12 shots and 4 on target.

Sonderjyske’s B. Tambedou is a key attacking threat with 3.28 shots and 1.97 shots on target per 90 minutes.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last ten head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 3.9, indicating a strong trend towards high-scoring games.
  • This trend, combined with current attacking and defensive profiles, suggests a fast-paced match with multiple goal opportunities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Aarhus1
Avg goals scored
Sonderjyske1.6
Aarhus2
Avg goals conceded
Sonderjyske2.8
Aarhus60%
BTTS rate
Sonderjyske80%
Aarhus60%
Over 2.5 goals
Sonderjyske80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 53% vs implied 46% · edge +7.8 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 71%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 33%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Both teams have high over 2.5 goals rates (Aarhus 60%, Sonderjyske 80%) and concede over 2 goals per game, reflecting open defensive play. Their recent head-to-head average of 3.9 goals per match further underscores the propensity for multiple goals and BTTS scenarios.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 64% · edge +12.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Sonderjyske Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 71%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Sonderjyske to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 59%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Aarhus Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
The 53.3% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 45.5% implied by the current price (+7.8 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Aarhus and 80% for Sonderjyske, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Continue the research

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Aarhus

DLDLL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 5D 4L
20 Sep 2026A AC Horsens2-2
13 Sep 2026A FC Nordsjaelland0-2
05 Sep 2026H Silkeborg2-2
02 Sep 2026H FC Midtjylland0-2
30 Aug 2026A Randers FC1-2

Sonderjyske

WDLLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 6L
20 Sep 2026H Randers FC4-2
13 Sep 2026A Lyngby1-1
06 Sep 2026H AC Horsens2-5
31 Aug 2026A FC Copenhagen1-3
23 Aug 2026H FC Nordsjaelland0-3
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
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Sonderjyske Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Sonderjyske to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Aarhus Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Aarhus to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Recent form shows Aarhus scoring 1 goal per game with a 60% over 2.5 goals rate, while Sonderjyske scores 1.6 goals with an 80% over 2.5 rate. Both teams concede heavily, reinforcing the likelihood of a high-scoring fixture consistent with the Over 3.5 Goals pick.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Aarhus Over 2.5
80%Sonderjyske Over 2.5
3.9H2H avg goals
Over the last ten head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 3.9, indicating a strong trend towards high-scoring games. This trend, combined with current attacking and defensive profiles, suggests a fast-paced match with multiple goal opportunities.

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