Football Stats Hub

Coritiba crestCoritiba
v
Botafogo crestBotafogo

Serie A | Mon 12 Oct, 20:00

Coritiba v Botafogo Stats

Data last updated: Sun 11 Oct 2026, 08:55 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Coritiba and Botafogo meet in a Serie A clash where both sides have shown contrasting defensive records and attacking intent. Coritiba concedes heavily at 3.2 goals per game but maintains a high rate of matches with over 2.5 goals, indicating open play. Botafogo, with a tighter defense conceding 1.4 goals per game, also contributes to an attacking encounter. Both teams average over 4 corners per match, setting the stage for a game with sustained wing play and set-piece opportunities. Recent form suggests a competitive match with potential for territorial battles and frequent dead-ball situations.

BT4Y best bet

Over 9.5 Corners

  • Coritiba averages 4.2 corners per game, Botafogo 4.8, combining for over 9 corners on average.
  • Both teams have attacking styles leading to sustained pressure and wing play, increasing corner chances.
  • Recent matches show Coritiba’s games always surpass 2.5 goals, reflecting open play and attacking transitions.
  • Botafogo’s defensive solidity is balanced by their offensive efforts, often forcing corners in attack and defense.
  • The model estimates a 62.8% chance for over 9.5 corners, indicating a strong statistical basis for this bet.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 9.5 Corners as a value bet with a 62.8% chance against an implied market chance of 57.8%, reflecting a 5% . Both teams' average corners per game exceed 4, supported by their attacking tendencies and open defensive styles, especially Coritiba’s high goals conceded rate. This match is likely to feature frequent wing attacks and defensive clearances leading to corners. The level at 68% underscores a solid statistical foundation, making this an attractive corner market selection with standard stake guidance.

Average Corners per GameCoritiba 4.2, Botafogo 4.8
Strong positive
Model Probability62.8% model chance vs 57.8% implied (+5 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge62.8% model chance vs 57.8% implied (+5 pts)
Strong positive
Recent FormCoritiba’s matches always over 2.5 goals, indicating open play
Positive
Defensive OpennessCoritiba concedes 3.2 goals per game, leading to more attacking pressure
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a match with sustained wing play and frequent attacking transitions, as Coritiba’s defensive vulnerabilities invite pressure and Botafogo’s offense seeks to exploit space. This tactical setup supports a high number of corners, making Over 9.5 Corners a sensible selection. The statistical data aligns with this, showing both teams regularly generate multiple corners per game, reinforcing the likelihood of this outcome.

Main risk

Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Corners market rationale

“Coritiba’s defensive frailties combined with Botafogo’s offensive activity create a fertile environment for numerous corners. The tactical emphasis on wide play and set-piece situations should push the corner count above nine and a half.”

Key Data Signals

Over 9.5 Corners evidence

Coritiba averages 4.2 corners per game, Botafogo 4.8, combining for over 9 corners on average.

Both teams have attacking styles leading to sustained pressure and wing play, increasing corner chances.

Recent matches show Coritiba’s games always surpass 2.5 goals, reflecting open play and attacking transitions.

Botafogo’s defensive solidity is balanced by their offensive efforts, often forcing corners in attack and defense.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 9.5 Corners notes

  • Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 2.5, indicating moderate scoring tempo.
  • This tempo, combined with open play and attacking transitions, supports a higher frequency of corners as teams push forward and defenses are stretched, aligning with the Over 9.5 Corners market.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Coritiba1.4
Avg goals scored
Botafogo1
Coritiba3.2
Avg goals conceded
Botafogo1.4
Coritiba60%
BTTS rate
Botafogo60%
Coritiba100%
Over 2.5 goals
Botafogo40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 62% · edge +8.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Both teams have shown tendencies toward open, attacking matches, with Coritiba’s 100% over 2.5 goals rate and Botafogo’s 40%. Both teams also have a 60% BTTS rate, indicating balanced attacking output. This attacking openness correlates with more attacking plays ending in corners, supporting the corner market selection.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 62% · edge +8.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Botafogo Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 61%
2
Check odds @ 2
Botafogo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 51%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 69%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Coritiba to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
The 62.8% for Over 9.5 Corners sits against roughly 57.8% implied by the current price (+5 pts). Botafogo lead the corner sample at 4.8 per match, with Coritiba lower at 4.2.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more Serie A analysiscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Coritiba

LLDLW
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
09 Oct 2026A Fluminense0-4
20 Sep 2026A Vasco DA Gama0-5
12 Sep 2026H Atletico Paranaense3-3
06 Sep 2026H Mirassol1-2
01 Sep 2026A Remo3-2

Botafogo

LLWDD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
08 Oct 2026H Vasco DA Gama1-2
19 Sep 2026A Mirassol0-2
16 Sep 2026H Gremio3-2
13 Sep 2026H RB Bragantino1-1
06 Sep 2026H Palmeiras0-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 78% vs implied 71% · edge +6.7 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Load more odds for this section
Botafogo Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 61%
2
Check odds @ 2
Botafogo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 51%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Coritiba to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Coritiba Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Recent form data shows Coritiba’s matches consistently surpass 2.5 goals, reflecting open play and defensive vulnerabilities that lead to attacking pressure and corners. Botafogo’s slightly more conservative approach still yields a healthy corner count. Both teams’ recent matches support a scenario where the corner count exceeds nine and a half.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Coritiba Over 2.5
40%Botafogo Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 2.5, indicating moderate scoring tempo. This tempo, combined with open play and attacking transitions, supports a higher frequency of corners as teams push forward and defenses are stretched, aligning with the Over 9.5 Corners market.

Loading deeper match data…