Football Stats Hub

Famalicao crestFamalicao
v
Alverca crestAlverca

Primeira Liga | Mon 12 Oct, 20:15

Famalicao v Alverca Stats

Data last updated: Thu 05 Nov 2026, 20:32 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Famalicao face Alverca in Primeira Liga on Mon 12 Oct, 20:15. Carlos Carvalhal's side finally secured their first league victory with a convincing 4-0 win over Nacional, while Alverca arrive chasing a third consecutive success after overcoming Nacional and Rio Ave.

BT4Y lean · price warning

To succeed, Famalicão must be leading after 90 minutes plus stoppage time

  • At 17/20, To succeed, Famalicão must be leading after 90 minutes plus stoppage time implies roughly 54%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 42%.
  • Famalicão vs Alverca Preview: Home Strength Meets a Resurgent Attack.
  • Alverca have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 6 for Famalicao.
  • Famalicao have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the To succeed, Famalicão must be leading after 90 minutes plus stoppage time angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Famalicao sit 11 in the table, while Alverca sit 10, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
Price warning

To succeed, Famalicão must be leading after 90 minutes plus stoppage time is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 54% while the model sits nearer 42% (-12.3 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +15 pts edge at 1.91.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 42% for To succeed, Famalicão must be leading after 90 minutes plus stoppage time sits against roughly 54% implied by the current price. Alverca have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 6 for Famalicao. Famalicão vs Alverca Preview: Home Strength Meets a Resurgent Attack.

Model chance vs price42% model chance against roughly 54% implied
Negative
Alverca have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points.Visible data support
Positive
Famalicao have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Famalicão vs Alverca Preview: Home Strength Meets a Resurgent.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Famalicao Win is the preferred angle because famalicão vs Alverca Preview: Home Strength Meets a Resurgent Attack. Alverca have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 6 for Famalicao. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

To succeed, Famalicão must be leading after 90 minutes plus stoppage time evidence

Famalicão vs Alverca Preview: Home Strength Meets a Resurgent Attack.

Alverca have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 6 for Famalicao.

Famalicao have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Famalicao Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Famalicao sit 11 in the table, while Alverca sit 10, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

To succeed, Famalicão must be leading after 90 minutes plus stoppage time notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Famalicao1.4
    Avg goals scored
    Alverca1.4
    Famalicao0.8
    Avg goals conceded
    Alverca1.4
    Famalicao40%
    BTTS rate
    Alverca80%
    Famalicao40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Alverca60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 58%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 28%
    3.5
    Check odds @ 3.5
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 34%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Famalicao

    WDDDL
    Last 51W 3D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 4D 2L
    19 Sep 2026A Nacional4-0
    13 Sep 2026H Sporting CP1-1
    05 Sep 2026A Estrela2-2
    30 Aug 2026H GIL Vicente0-0
    23 Aug 2026A Santa Clara0-1

    Alverca

    WWLDL
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 2D 3L
    19 Sep 2026H Rio Ave1-0
    12 Sep 2026A Nacional3-1
    05 Sep 2026H SC Braga1-2
    29 Aug 2026H Santa Clara1-1
    22 Aug 2026A Sporting CP1-3
    Market aligned with main pickFamalicao to WinBetfred guide price · Model 42% vs implied 54% · edge -12.3 pts
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 72%
    1.18
    Check odds @ 1.18
    Famalicao Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 52%
    1.45
    Check odds @ 1.45
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickFamalicao to WinBetfred guide price · Model 42% vs implied 54% · edge -12.3 pts
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 60%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Famalicao Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 52%
    1.45
    Check odds @ 1.45
    Famalicao to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Famalicao Over 2.5
    60%Alverca Over 2.5
    1.67H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Famalicao sit at 40% and Alverca sit at 60% with the H2H average at 1.67 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Loading deeper match data…