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Famalicao crestFamalicao
v
Alverca crestAlverca

Primeira Liga | Sat 16 May, 20:30

Famalicao v Alverca Stats

Data last updated: Fri 05 Jun 2026, 12:08 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Famalicao face Alverca in Primeira Liga on Sat 16 May, 20:30. Famalicão are unbeaten in 11 league matches and have turned their home ground into a fortress. Famalicão's 11-match unbeaten streak and Alverca's defensive inconsistency away from home suggest a high probability for a home win. Famalicao average just 0.

BT4Y lean · price warning

A specific team like Famalicão to succeed over 90 minutes

  • At 8/15, Famalicao Win implies roughly 65%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 43%.
  • Defensive Stability: Goals Conceded Average
  • Famalicao have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Famalicao Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Famalicao sit 5 in the table, while Alverca sit 11, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
Price warning

A specific team like Famalicão to succeed over 90 minutes is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 65% while the model sits nearer 43% (-22.2 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Alverca Draw No Bet shows a +19.2 pts edge at 3.1.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 43% for Famalicao Win sits against roughly 65% implied by the current price. Famalicao have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Famalicao Win angle more than a raw possession edge. Defensive Stability: Goals Conceded Average

Model chance vs price43% model chance against roughly 65% implied
Negative
Famalicao have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Famalicao sit 5 in the table, while Alverca sit 11.Visible data support
Positive
Defensive Stability: Goals Conceded AverageArticle support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Famalicao Win is the preferred angle because defensive Stability: Goals Conceded Average Famalicao have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Famalicao Win angle more than a raw possession edge. High-variance markets, like Correct Score, have lower probabilities of winning but offer much higher rewards.

Main risk

High-variance markets, like Correct Score, have lower probabilities of winning but offer much higher rewards.

Key Data Signals

Famalicao Win evidence

Defensive Stability: Goals Conceded Average

Famalicao have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Famalicao Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Famalicao sit 5 in the table, while Alverca sit 11, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Famalicao Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Famalicao7
    Avg corners for
    Alverca6.2
    Famalicao11.2
    Avg total corners
    Alverca11.6
    Famalicao3
    Avg yellow cards
    Alverca1.6
    Famalicao12
    Avg shots
    Alverca8.8
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 69% vs implied 58% · edge +11.2 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    more Primeira Liga analysisFamalicao v Alverca predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Famalicao1.2
    Avg goals scored
    Alverca1.2
    Famalicao1
    Avg goals conceded
    Alverca1
    Famalicao60%
    BTTS rate
    Alverca60%
    Famalicao40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Alverca40%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 59% · edge +11.2 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
    1.2
    Check odds @ 1.2
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 43%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 34%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 25%
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickFamalicao to WinBetUK guide price · Model 43% vs implied 64% · edge -20.7 pts
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 70%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Famalicao Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 54%
    1.35
    Check odds @ 1.35
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 43%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Famalicao to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Famalicao

    DDWDD
    Last 51W 4D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 6D 0L
    11 May 2026A Estrela0-0
    02 May 2026H Benfica2-2
    26 Apr 2026A Estoril1-0
    19 Apr 2026A SC Braga2-2
    10 Apr 2026H Moreirense1-1

    Alverca

    DLWLW
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 4D 3L
    10 May 2026H Estoril1-1
    02 May 2026A FC Porto0-1
    24 Apr 2026H Arouca2-1
    18 Apr 2026A Nacional0-1
    12 Apr 2026H Casa Pia3-1
    Market aligned with main pickFamalicao to WinBetUK guide price · Model 43% vs implied 64% · edge -20.7 pts
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 73%
    1.14
    Check odds @ 1.14
    Famalicao Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 54%
    1.35
    Check odds @ 1.35
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    1Famalicao wins
    0Draws
    1Alverca wins
    04 Jan 2026Alverca v Famalicao1-0
    20 Nov 2021Alverca v Famalicao1-2
    Market aligned with main pickFamalicao to WinBetUK guide price · Model 43% vs implied 64% · edge -20.7 pts
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 70%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 43%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Famalicao to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Primeira Liga

    Famalicao34
    Played
    Alverca34
    Famalicao1.2
    Avg goals for
    Alverca1
    Famalicao0.9
    Avg goals against
    Alverca1.5
    Famalicao17
    Clean sheets
    Alverca6
    Market aligned with main pickFamalicao to WinBetUK guide price · Model 43% vs implied 64% · edge -20.7 pts
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Load more odds for this section
    Famalicao Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 54%
    1.35
    Check odds @ 1.35
    Season data supports Famalicao to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    5Famalicao56341511813
    11Alverca393410915-17
    Famalicao sit in position 5, while Alverca sit in position 11, so table pressure belongs in the Famalicao Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Famalicao Over 2.5
    40%Alverca Over 2.5
    2H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Famalicao sit at 40% and Alverca sit at 40% with the H2H average at 2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Famalicao v Alverca prediction

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