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Venezia crestVenezia

Serie A | Mon 12 Oct, 17:30

Atalanta v Venezia Stats

Data last updated: Sun 11 Oct 2026, 15:07 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Atalanta hosts Venezia in a Serie A clash where disciplinary intensity is expected to be high. Atalanta, positioned mid-table with six points, face a struggling Venezia side yet to earn any points. Both teams have shown contrasting defensive vulnerabilities, with Venezia conceding more frequently, likely leading to increased fouling and tactical fouls. The match's competitive nature and Venezia's fight for survival suggest a physical encounter with multiple cautions. Recent form data highlights Atalanta's moderate scoring but also a propensity for aggressive play, setting the stage for a card-laden contest.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Cards

  • Atalanta averages 0.8 yellow cards per game; Venezia averages 3.2, indicating a high card count overall
  • Model projects a 64% chance for Over 3.5 Cards, with positive value at 1.91
  • Venezia's defensive struggles and aggressive fouling increase card likelihood
  • Recent matches show both teams involved in physical, high-card games
  • Player data highlights Toni Fernández's high foul and card risk, contributing to overall card volume

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 3.5 Cards as a strong value bet with a 64% chance against an implied 52.4%, driven by Venezia's aggressive defensive style and Atalanta's tactical fouling tendencies. Venezia's high average of 3.2 yellows per game and players like Toni Fernández with significant foul and card risk underpin this forecast. The match's competitive stakes and contrasting defensive records further support a physical game likely to yield multiple cautions. No price warnings apply, making this a standard stake recommendation.

Model Chance64% model chance vs 52.4% implied (+11.6 pts)
Strong positive
Venezia Yellow Cards Average3.2 per game
Strong positive
Atalanta Yellow Cards Average0.8 per game
Positive
Player Card Risk (Toni Fernández)High (1.55 yellows per 90)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance64% model chance vs 52.4% implied (+11.6 pts)
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a physical and intense match with Venezia's defensive frailties and Atalanta's competitive edge leading to multiple fouls and cautions. The data supports a high card count, reflecting both teams' styles and the match's stakes, making Over 3.5 Cards a tactically and statistically sound pick.

Main risk

However, the visitors did hold Atalanta to a goalless draw during their latest meeting in spring 2025, establishing recent precedent for a tight encounter.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · cards market

“This fixture's aggressive defensive patterns and player foul profiles strongly indicate a high volume of cautions, making Over 3.5 Cards a compelling market to watch.”

Key Data Signals

Venezia Asian Handicap +1 evidence

Atalanta averages 0.8 yellow cards per game; Venezia averages 3.2, indicating a high card count overall

Model projects a 64% chance for Over 3.5 Cards, with positive value at 1.91

Venezia's defensive struggles and aggressive fouling increase card likelihood

Recent matches show both teams involved in physical, high-card games

What To Watch In The Data

Venezia Asian Handicap +1 notes

  • In the last five meetings, the average goals stand at 2.4, indicating moderate scoring.
  • However, the trend panel highlights a tempo and defensive gaps that often lead to fouls and disciplinary actions rather than high scoring, aligning with the Over 3.5 Cards market rather than goal-focused bets.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Atalanta1
Avg goals scored
Venezia0.8
Atalanta1.4
Avg goals conceded
Venezia2.6
Atalanta60%
BTTS rate
Venezia40%
Atalanta60%
Over 2.5 goals
Venezia40%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 53% vs implied 42% · edge +11.2 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 33%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
While goal scoring is moderate, with Atalanta averaging 1 goal and Venezia 0.8, the focus shifts to disciplinary trends. Venezia's lower BTTS and over 2.5 rates contrast with the expected physicality, indicating goals may be fewer but fouls and cards more frequent, supporting the card market.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Serie A hubAtalanta v Venezia predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 52% · edge +11.6 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Atalanta to WinBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Atalanta Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Venezia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Venezia to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
The 64% for Venezia Asian Handicap +1 sits against roughly 52.4% implied by the current price (+11.6 pts). Venezia have the higher yellow-card average at 3.2, while Atalanta sit at 0.8.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Atalanta

LLLWW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 3L
20 Sep 2026A Juventus0-2
12 Sep 2026H Cagliari1-2
05 Sep 2026A AS Roma1-2
31 Aug 2026H Bologna1-0
23 Aug 2026H Sassuolo2-1

Venezia

LLLLL
Last 50W 0D 5L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 5L
19 Sep 2026H Lazio0-2
11 Sep 2026H Fiorentina2-4
06 Sep 2026A Frosinone2-3
28 Aug 2026A AC Milan0-2
23 Aug 2026H Lecce0-2
Best odds for this sectionAtalanta to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 64% · edge +10.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Atalanta Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Venezia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Venezia to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
DrawBetUK guide price · model 20%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Recent form shows Atalanta earning 6 points with a moderate goals-for rate but a lower card average, while Venezia has struggled with 0 points and a high card average of 3.2 yellows per game. This contrast suggests Venezia's defensive desperation may increase fouling and cards, reinforcing the Over 3.5 Cards selection.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Atalanta Over 2.5
40%Venezia Over 2.5
2.4H2H avg goals
In the last five meetings, the average goals stand at 2.4, indicating moderate scoring. However, the trend panel highlights a tempo and defensive gaps that often lead to fouls and disciplinary actions rather than high scoring, aligning with the Over 3.5 Cards market rather than goal-focused bets.

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