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San Marino crestSan Marino
v
Bangladesh crestBangladesh

Friendlies | Fri 05 Jun, 18:00

San Marino v Bangladesh Stats

Data last updated: Sat 13 Jun 2026, 10:33 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

San Marino face Bangladesh in Friendlies on Fri 05 Jun, 18:00. This is their first away fixture against European opposition and comes with a sold-out away end at the Stadio Olimpico di Serravalle. Given Bangladesh's lack of wins in six consecutive road trips and recent low-scoring outings, a scoreless stalemate offers strong stylistic plausibility.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Questions because Bangladesh’s back line may not be under constant pressure, but concentration will still matter

  • At 40/85, Draw implies roughly 68%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 24%.
  • Both teams struggle significantly in the attacking third, with San Marino hitting the net just twice in their last six home matches.
  • San Marino have the stronger recent points return, taking 1 points from the sample compared with 0 for Bangladesh.
  • San Marino have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Draw angle more than a raw possession edge.
Price warning

Questions because Bangladesh’s back line may not be under constant pressure, but concentration will still matter is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 68% while the model sits nearer 24% (-43.6 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Over 2.5 Goals shows a +36.5 pts edge at 2.6.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 24% for Draw sits against roughly 68% implied by the current price. San Marino have the stronger recent points return, taking 1 points from the sample compared with 0 for Bangladesh. Both teams struggle significantly in the attacking third, with San Marino hitting the net just twice in their last six home matches.

Model chance vs price24% model chance against roughly 68% implied
Negative
San Marino have the stronger recent points return, taking 1.Visible data support
Positive
San Marino have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Both teams struggle significantly in the attacking third.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Draw is the preferred angle because both teams struggle significantly in the attacking third, with San Marino hitting the net just twice in their last six home matches. San Marino have the stronger recent points return, taking 1 points from the sample compared with 0 for Bangladesh. Friendlies can sometimes feel like football’s polite small talk, but this one has a sharper edge.

Main risk

Friendlies can sometimes feel like football’s polite small talk, but this one has a sharper edge.

Key Data Signals

Draw evidence

Both teams struggle significantly in the attacking third, with San Marino hitting the net just twice in their.

San Marino have the stronger recent points return, taking 1 points from the sample compared with 0 for Bangladesh.

San Marino have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Draw angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Draw notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    San Marino0.5
    Avg goals scored
    Bangladesh0
    San Marino1
    Avg goals conceded
    Bangladesh3
    San Marino50%
    BTTS rate
    Bangladesh0%
    San Marino50%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Bangladesh100%
    Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 39% · edge +36.5 pts
    2.6
    Check odds @ 2.6
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    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
    5.5
    Check odds @ 5.5
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 62%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 42%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 29%
    1.48
    Check odds @ 1.48
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickDrawBet365 guide price · Model 24% vs implied 32% · edge -7.9 pts
    3.1
    Check odds @ 3.1
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 75%
    2.6
    Check odds @ 2.6
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
    1.98
    Check odds @ 1.98
    San Marino to WinBetMGM guide price · model 61%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    San Marino Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 70%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Bangladesh Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 42%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Draw is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    San Marino5
    Avg corners for
    Bangladesh-
    San Marino13
    Avg total corners
    Bangladesh-
    San Marino3
    Avg yellow cards
    Bangladesh-
    San Marino0
    Avg shots
    Bangladesh-
    Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 51% · edge +24.5 pts
    1.98
    Check odds @ 1.98
    Over 8.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    San Marino

    DL
    Last 50W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 1D 1L
    31 Mar 2026H Andorra0-0
    28 Mar 2026H Faroe Islands1-2

    Bangladesh

    L
    Last 50W 0D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 1L
    26 Mar 2026A Vietnam0-3
    Market aligned with main pickDrawBet365 guide price · Model 24% vs implied 32% · edge -7.9 pts
    3.1
    Check odds @ 3.1
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    San Marino to WinBetMGM guide price · model 61%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
    1.2
    Check odds @ 1.2
    San Marino Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 70%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Bangladesh Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 47%
    1.55
    Check odds @ 1.55
    Bangladesh to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
    3.1
    Check odds @ 3.1
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0San Marino wins
    0Draws
    0Bangladesh wins
    Market aligned with main pickDrawBet365 guide price · Model 24% vs implied 32% · edge -7.9 pts
    3.1
    Check odds @ 3.1
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 75%
    2.6
    Check odds @ 2.6
    San Marino to WinBetMGM guide price · model 61%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 42%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Bangladesh to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
    3.1
    Check odds @ 3.1
    There is no strong recent head-to-head sample for Draw, which makes current output, injuries and market timing more important than historic meetings.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    Friendlies

    San Marino4
    Played
    Bangladesh2
    San Marino0.8
    Avg goals for
    Bangladesh1
    San Marino1.5
    Avg goals against
    Bangladesh2
    San Marino1
    Clean sheets
    Bangladesh0
    Best odds for this sectionSan Marino to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15.6 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Load more odds for this section
    San Marino Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 70%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Bangladesh Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Bangladesh to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
    3.1
    Check odds @ 3.1
    Season data supports San Marino to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    50%San Marino Over 2.5
    100%Bangladesh Over 2.5
    -H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: San Marino sit at 50% and Bangladesh sit at 100%, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.