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Cambridge United crestCambridge United
v
Brighton U21 crestBrighton U21

EFL Trophy | Tue 03 Nov, 19:00

Cambridge United v Brighton U21 Stats

Data last updated: Mon 02 Nov 2026, 08:16 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Cambridge United face Brighton U21 in the EFL Trophy, a competition known for open, attacking play and developmental squads pushing for impact. Cambridge United have shown strong offensive intent recently, scoring three goals in their last two matches while conceding just once. Brighton U21 have also found the net three times but have been more vulnerable defensively, conceding twice. Both sides have a 100% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals recently, suggesting an open game with attacking emphasis. The fixture’s stakes and tactical openness set the stage for a high-scoring encounter under floodlights.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Both teams have a 100% over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches.
  • Cambridge United average 12.5 shots and 6 on target per game, indicating strong attacking pressure.
  • Brighton U21 also average 10 shots with 4 on target, showing offensive threat.
  • Cambridge United average 5.5 corners per game, suggesting sustained attacking territory.
  • Recent matches show Cambridge United concede less, but Brighton U21’s defensive lapses may increase goal chances.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 58% chance for Over 3.5 Goals, reflecting strong recent attacking form from both sides and high shot volumes. Cambridge United’s prolific shooting and Brighton U21’s offensive activity support a high-goal scenario. The 10.4% at 2.1 indicates a positive pricing opportunity without price warnings. The data quality is solid with balanced sample sizes, reinforcing in the attacking trends driving this pick.

Recent Over 2.5 Goals Rate100% both teams
Strong positive
Average Shots per GameCambridge 12.5, Brighton 10
Strong positive
Model Probability vs Implied Odds58% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+10.4 pts)
Strong positive
Data QualityGood data coverage both teams
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open, attacking game with Cambridge United’s high shot volume and Brighton U21’s offensive intent driving goal opportunities. The recent perfect over 2.5 goals form for both teams and Cambridge’s corner control suggest multiple scoring chances. This match is well suited for Over 3.5 Goals given the attacking profiles and recent trends.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Attacking intensity and goal volume

“Cambridge United’s aggressive shooting combined with Brighton U21’s willingness to attack creates fertile ground for a high-scoring game. The data clearly points to a lively encounter with multiple goals expected.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Both teams have a 100% over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches.

Cambridge United average 12.5 shots and 6 on target per game, indicating strong attacking pressure.

Brighton U21 also average 10 shots with 4 on target, showing offensive threat.

Cambridge United average 5.5 corners per game, suggesting sustained attacking territory.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • In the last five matches involving these teams, the trend strongly favors Over 2.5 Goals with a 100% occurrence rate.
  • The tempo and attacking intent in these fixtures suggest a continuation of high-scoring encounters, driven by both teams’ willingness to commit players forward and defensive gaps.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Cambridge United3
Avg goals scored
Brighton U213
Cambridge United1
Avg goals conceded
Brighton U212
Cambridge United100%
BTTS rate
Brighton U2150%
Cambridge United100%
Over 2.5 goals
Brighton U21100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 48% · edge +10.4 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 88%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Both teams have a 100% over 2.5 goals rate recently, with Cambridge United also showing 100% BTTS and Brighton U21 at 50%. This indicates a strong tendency for open games with multiple goals. The attacking styles and defensive vulnerabilities suggest a match likely to exceed three goals, aligning with the Over 3.5 selection.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 64% · edge +12.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Brighton U21 Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Cambridge United Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Cambridge United to WinBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Brighton U21 to WinBet365 guide price · model 20%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
The 58% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 47.6% implied by the current price (+10.4 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Cambridge United and 100% for Brighton U21, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Cambridge United

WW
Last 52W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 0L
06 Oct 2026H Northampton2-1
22 Sep 2026A Gillingham4-1

Brighton U21

LW
Last 51W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 1L
13 Oct 2026A Gillingham3-4
18 Aug 2026A Northampton3-0
Best odds for this sectionBrighton U21 Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 32% · edge +9.7 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
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Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 80%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Cambridge United Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Cambridge United to WinBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Brighton U21 to WinBet365 guide price · model 20%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 22%
4
Check odds @ 4
Recent form strongly supports Over 3.5 Goals as Cambridge United have scored 3 goals and conceded 1 in their last two matches, while Brighton U21 have scored 3 and conceded 2. Both teams have maintained a 100% over 2.5 goals rate, confirming a pattern of open, high-scoring games leading into this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Cambridge United Over 2.5
100%Brighton U21 Over 2.5
1H2H avg goals
In the last five matches involving these teams, the trend strongly favors Over 2.5 Goals with a 100% occurrence rate. The tempo and attacking intent in these fixtures suggest a continuation of high-scoring encounters, driven by both teams’ willingness to commit players forward and defensive gaps.

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