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Juventude crestJuventude
v
Vila Nova crestVila Nova

Serie B | Fri 10 Jul, 23:00

Juventude v Vila Nova Stats

Data last updated: Sat 01 Aug 2026, 10:01 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Juventude face Vila Nova in Serie B on Fri 10 Jul, 23:00. Backed by four consecutive league clean sheets, their structured defence can neutralise a Vila Nova squad that has gone winless in their last two away fixtures.

BT4Y match pick

Juventude Win

  • At 17/20, Juventude Win implies roughly 54%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 51%.
  • Juventude have conceded only eight goals in 16 matches, giving them strong leverage on their home territory against Vila Nova.
  • Juventude have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 9 for Vila Nova.
  • Juventude have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.4 conceded per match, which helps the Juventude Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Juventude sit 2 in the table, while Vila Nova sit 5, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 51% for Juventude Win sits against roughly 54% implied by the current price. Juventude have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 9 for Vila Nova. Juventude have conceded only eight goals in 16 matches, giving them strong leverage on their home territory against Vila Nova.

Model chance vs price51% model chance against roughly 54% implied
Negative
Juventude have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points.Visible data support
Positive
Juventude have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.4 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Juventude have conceded only eight goals in 16 matches.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Juventude Win is the preferred angle because juventude have conceded only eight goals in 16 matches, giving them strong leverage on their home territory against Vila Nova. Juventude have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 9 for Vila Nova. It makes Vila Nova dangerous but not untouchable.

Main risk

It makes Vila Nova dangerous but not untouchable.

Key Data Signals

Juventude Win evidence

Juventude have conceded only eight goals in 16 matches, giving them strong leverage on their home territory.

Juventude have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 9 for Vila Nova.

Juventude have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.4 conceded per match, which helps the Juventude Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Juventude sit 2 in the table, while Vila Nova sit 5, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Juventude Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Juventude1.4
    Avg goals scored
    Vila Nova1.6
    Juventude0.4
    Avg goals conceded
    Vila Nova1.4
    Juventude20%
    BTTS rate
    Vila Nova60%
    Juventude40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Vila Nova60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 46% · edge +11.2 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
    2.4
    Check odds @ 2.4
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
    4.5
    Check odds @ 4.5
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 47%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    Juventude v Vila Nova predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Juventude

    DWWWL
    Last 53W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 4D 2L
    06 Jul 2026A Nautico Recife0-0
    28 Jun 2026H Ceara2-0
    21 Jun 2026A São Bernardo1-0
    14 Jun 2026H Ponte Preta3-0
    06 Jun 2026A Operario-PR1-2

    Vila Nova

    WLWLW
    Last 53W 0D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 106W 1D 3L
    06 Jul 2026H São Bernardo2-1
    26 Jun 2026A Novorizontino1-2
    20 Jun 2026H Nautico Recife4-3
    14 Jun 2026A Cuiaba0-1
    09 Jun 2026H Botafogo SP1-0
    Market aligned with main pickJuventude to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 56% · edge -4.9 pts
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Juventude Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 60%
    1.38
    Check odds @ 1.38
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    2Juventude3520105510
    5Vila Nova342010463
    Juventude sit in position 2, while Vila Nova sit in position 5, so table pressure belongs in the Juventude Win assessment.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickJuventude to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 56% · edge -4.9 pts
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 57%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 60%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Juventude Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 60%
    1.38
    Check odds @ 1.38
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
    2.4
    Check odds @ 2.4
    Juventude to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Juventude4.4
    Avg corners for
    Vila Nova3.5
    Juventude7.8
    Avg total corners
    Vila Nova10.25
    Juventude2.2
    Avg yellow cards
    Vila Nova1.75
    Juventude13
    Avg shots
    Vila Nova12
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 55% · edge -0.3 pts
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 60%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Over 5.5 CardsBetMGM guide price
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    1Juventude wins
    4Draws
    4Vila Nova wins
    07 Aug 2023Juventude v Vila Nova0-2
    30 Apr 2023Vila Nova v Juventude1-0
    09 Apr 2021Vila Nova v Juventude1-1
    08 May 2019Vila Nova v Juventude0-0
    25 Apr 2019Juventude v Vila Nova0-0
    20 Oct 2018Vila Nova v Juventude1-0
    Market aligned with main pickJuventude to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 56% · edge -4.9 pts
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 57%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
    2.4
    Check odds @ 2.4
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Juventude to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Serie B

    Juventude20
    Played
    Vila Nova20
    Juventude1.1
    Avg goals for
    Vila Nova1.4
    Juventude0.6
    Avg goals against
    Vila Nova1.2
    Juventude14
    Clean sheets
    Vila Nova4
    Market aligned with main pickJuventude to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 56% · edge -4.9 pts
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Load more odds for this section
    Juventude Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 60%
    1.38
    Check odds @ 1.38
    Season data supports Juventude to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Juventude Over 2.5
    60%Vila Nova Over 2.5
    0.89H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Juventude sit at 40% and Vila Nova sit at 60% with the H2H average at 0.89 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Juventude v Vila Nova prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

    Read full prediction View match centre