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Juventude crestJuventude
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Vila Nova crestVila Nova

Serie B | Fri 10 Jul, 23:00

Juventude v Vila Nova Stats

Data last updated: Thu 09 Jul 2026, 03:50 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie B clash features Vila Nova, currently top of the table, visiting Juventude, sitting sixth. Vila Nova's solid defensive record contrasts with Juventude's more conservative attacking output, suggesting a tactical battle focused on control and minimizing risks. Both teams have shown a tendency for low-scoring affairs recently, with Vila Nova conceding 1.4 goals per game and Juventude just 0.4. The stakes are high as Vila Nova aims to maintain their lead, while Juventude seeks to close the gap, setting up a cautious encounter at an undecided venue.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Both teams have moderate goal-scoring rates, with Vila Nova averaging 1.6 and Juventude 1.4 goals per game.
  • Juventude concedes only 0.4 goals per match, indicating strong defensive discipline.
  • Vila Nova's BTTS rate is 60%, but Juventude's is only 20%, suggesting limited mutual scoring.
  • The average goals in their nine head-to-head meetings is under 1, reinforcing a low-scoring trend.
  • Both teams average around 4.5 corners per game, indicating moderate attacking pressure without excessive chances.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 66% probability, reflecting the defensive solidity and recent low-scoring trends of both sides. Vila Nova's higher BTTS rate is balanced by Juventude's strong defense and low goals conceded, suggesting limited goal opportunities. The head-to-head average of 0.89 goals per game supports a cautious match with few clear chances. Player data shows moderate shot volumes but not an overwhelming attacking threat, reinforcing the likelihood of a tight scoreline. No price warnings apply, making this a standard pick.

Model Probability66% chance of Under 2.5 Goals
Strong positive
Defensive StrengthJuventude concedes 0.4 goals per game
Strong positive
Head-to-Head GoalsAverage 0.89 goals in last 9 meetings
Strong positive
BTTS RatesVila Nova 60%, Juventude 20%
Neutral
Shot VolumeBoth teams average 13 shots per game
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a tactical, low-scoring encounter as Vila Nova aims to protect their top spot against a defensively disciplined Juventude. The data shows both teams favor cautious play with limited goals, making Under 2.5 Goals a logical choice based on their recent form and defensive records.

Main risk

The main risk is Vila Nova's higher BTTS rate and attacking players like André Luís who can create scoring chances, potentially pushing the game over 2.5 goals if Juventude's defense lapses.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical defensive control and low scoring

“This fixture is shaped by Vila Nova's solid defense and Juventude's conservative attack, creating a scenario where goals are scarce and defensive discipline is paramount.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Both teams have moderate goal-scoring rates, with Vila Nova averaging 1.6 and Juventude 1.4 goals per game.

Juventude concedes only 0.4 goals per match, indicating strong defensive discipline.

Vila Nova's BTTS rate is 60%, but Juventude's is only 20%, suggesting limited mutual scoring.

The average goals in their nine head-to-head meetings is under 1, reinforcing a low-scoring trend.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last nine head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is only 0.89, indicating a strong trend towards low-scoring games.
  • This sample suggests a slow tempo and defensive caution, with few clear chances created, reinforcing the likelihood of Under 2.5 Goals in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Juventude1.4
Avg goals scored
Vila Nova1.6
Juventude0.4
Avg goals conceded
Vila Nova1.4
Juventude20%
BTTS rate
Vila Nova60%
Juventude40%
Over 2.5 goals
Vila Nova60%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 65% · edge +0.6 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 57%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Goal trends show Vila Nova with a 60% BTTS rate contrasting Juventude's 20%, but the overall low average goals in their head-to-head (0.89) suggest a match leaning towards fewer goals. Vila Nova's attacking threat is tempered by Juventude's strong defense, indicating a likely under 2.5 goals outcome with limited BTTS certainty.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Juventude

DWWWL
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 4D 2L
06 Jul 2026A Nautico Recife0-0
28 Jun 2026H Ceara2-0
21 Jun 2026A São Bernardo1-0
14 Jun 2026H Ponte Preta3-0
06 Jun 2026A Operario-PR1-2

Vila Nova

WLWLW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 1D 3L
06 Jul 2026H São Bernardo2-1
26 Jun 2026A Novorizontino1-2
20 Jun 2026H Nautico Recife4-3
14 Jun 2026A Cuiaba0-1
09 Jun 2026H Botafogo SP1-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 61% vs implied 52% · edge +8.5 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Vila Nova to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Vila Nova Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
Juventude to WinBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Juventude Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
DrawBetUK guide price · model 28%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Recent form data shows Juventude scoring 1.4 goals and conceding 0.4 per game, while Vila Nova scores 1.6 and concedes 1.4. Juventude's stronger defensive record contrasts with Vila Nova's more open style, but both teams have a history of matches finishing under 2.5 goals, reinforcing the model's preference for a low-scoring outcome.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Vila Nova31169437
6Juventude26167548
Vila Nova leads the Serie B table with 31 points, while Juventude is sixth with 26 points. The standings suggest Vila Nova will prioritize defensive solidity to maintain their lead, while Juventude may adopt a cautious approach to avoid defeat, both factors supporting a low-scoring encounter.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 46% · edge +11.2 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
Vila Nova to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Vila Nova Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 64%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Juventude to WinBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Juventude Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
The Under 2.5 Goals market aligns well with the model's 66% probability, reflecting a realistic expectation of a low-scoring game. Current appear balanced without significant , making this a sensible but not standout price. Any improvement in would enhance the value appeal.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Juventude4.4
Avg corners for
Vila Nova4.6
Juventude7.8
Avg total corners
Vila Nova11.8
Juventude2.2
Avg yellow cards
Vila Nova1.6
Juventude13
Avg shots
Vila Nova13
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 53% · edge +5.7 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 64%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Both teams average about 4.5 corners per game, indicating moderate attacking pressure without control. Shot volumes are balanced at 13 per game each, with Juventude generating slightly more shots on target. Discipline is moderate, with Juventude averaging 2.2 yellows and Vila Nova 1.6, suggesting a controlled game environment conducive to fewer interruptions.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Juventude wins
4Draws
4Vila Nova wins
07 Aug 2023Juventude v Vila Nova0-2
30 Apr 2023Vila Nova v Juventude1-0
09 Apr 2021Vila Nova v Juventude1-1
08 May 2019Vila Nova v Juventude0-0
25 Apr 2019Juventude v Vila Nova0-0
20 Oct 2018Vila Nova v Juventude1-0
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 46% · edge +11.2 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
Vila Nova to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Juventude to WinBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
DrawBetUK guide price · model 28%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
The nine previous meetings between these teams have produced an average of just 0.89 goals per game, highlighting a consistent pattern of low-scoring encounters. This historical trend supports expectations of a tight, defensively focused match with limited goal-scoring opportunities.
Season team stats

Serie B

Juventude16
Played
Vila Nova16
Juventude1
Avg goals for
Vila Nova1.6
Juventude0.5
Avg goals against
Vila Nova1.1
Juventude11
Clean sheets
Vila Nova4
Best odds for this sectionVila Nova to WinBet365 guide price · Model 33% vs implied 21% · edge +12.2 pts
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Load more odds for this section
Vila Nova Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
Juventude to WinBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Juventude Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Season-long stats reveal Juventude's strong defense with only 0.4 goals conceded per game, while Vila Nova concedes more at 1.4. Both teams have moderate scoring rates, with Vila Nova slightly higher. These profiles indicate a match where defensive discipline may limit goal-scoring opportunities, favoring Under 2.5 Goals.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Juventude Over 2.5
60%Vila Nova Over 2.5
0.89H2H avg goals
Over the last nine head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is only 0.89, indicating a strong trend towards low-scoring games. This sample suggests a slow tempo and defensive caution, with few clear chances created, reinforcing the likelihood of Under 2.5 Goals in this fixture.

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Fixture links

Prediction context

Juventude v Vila Nova prediction

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