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Tunisia crestTunisia
v
Netherlands crestNetherlands

World Cup | Fri 26 Jun, 00:00

Tunisia v Netherlands Stats

Data last updated: Thu 25 Jun 2026, 05:25 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This World Cup Group F clash sees Netherlands aiming to consolidate their top spot with a commanding performance against Tunisia, who are fighting to salvage pride after conceding nine goals in two matches. Netherlands bring a potent attack, having scored seven goals in the group so far, led by sharp finishers like Cody Gakpo and Brian Brobbey. Tunisia, despite defensive struggles, maintain an attacking threat evidenced by consistent goal-scoring in recent matches. The tactical battle will hinge on Dutch possession control and Tunisia's ability to exploit defensive gaps, setting the stage for an intense encounter with high scoring potential.

BT4Y best bet

Netherlands to Win & Both Teams to Score

  • Netherlands have scored 7 goals in 2 Group F matches, showing strong attacking form.
  • Tunisia conceded 9 goals in their two group games, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities.
  • Tunisia have scored in 12 of their last 13 matches, indicating attacking capability despite recent struggles.
  • Netherlands' defense has conceded in 6 consecutive games, making BTTS plausible.
  • Dutch possession averages 59% with 90% passing accuracy, enabling sustained pressure and quality chances.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Netherlands to Win & Both Teams to Score due to their prolific scoring record combined with defensive lapses that allow opponents to score. Netherlands average 3.1 goals per game over their last ten matches and have conceded in every recent fixture, while Tunisia consistently find the net in most matches despite recent tournament difficulties. The Dutch style of high possession and precise passing creates numerous inside-box chances, increasing scoring opportunities for both sides. This pick balances the clear superiority of Netherlands with the realistic chance of Tunisia scoring against a vulnerable defense.

Netherlands scoring form7 goals in 2 Group F matches, 3.1 average goals last 10 games
Strong positive
Netherlands defensive vulnerabilityConceded in 6 consecutive matches
Positive
Tunisia attacking consistencyScored in 12 of last 13 matches
Positive
Dutch possession and passing59% possession, 90% passing accuracy
Strong positive
Tunisia defensive struggles9 goals conceded in 2 group matches
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

The Netherlands' attacking firepower and possession control make them strong favorites to win, while Tunisia's defensive frailties and ability to score maintain the likelihood of both teams finding the net. This combination reflects the tactical dynamics and recent form data, suggesting a high-scoring match with Dutch control.

Main risk

The main risk is Tunisia's recent lack of offensive sharpness, including matches with few shots on target, which could limit their scoring chances and lead to a Dutch clean sheet.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and scoring dynamics

“The Netherlands' blend of clinical finishing and sustained ball control, paired with Tunisia's persistent attacking efforts despite defensive weaknesses, sets up a fixture where both teams are likely to score but the Dutch will ultimately prevail.”

Key Data Signals

Netherlands to Win & Both Teams to Score evidence

Netherlands have scored 7 goals in 2 Group F matches, showing strong attacking form.

Tunisia conceded 9 goals in their two group games, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities.

Tunisia have scored in 12 of their last 13 matches, indicating attacking capability despite recent struggles.

Netherlands' defense has conceded in 6 consecutive games, making BTTS plausible.

What To Watch In The Data

Netherlands to Win & Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last ten matches, both teams have consistently participated in high-scoring games, with Netherlands averaging over 3 goals per game and Tunisia featuring in matches with frequent goal exchanges.
  • The trend towards Over 2.5 goals is strong, driven by Dutch attacking tempo and Tunisia's defensive concessions, suggesting a lively, goal-rich encounter.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Tunisia2.5
Avg corners for
Netherlands3.5
Tunisia7
Avg total corners
Netherlands8
Tunisia0.5
Avg yellow cards
Netherlands1.5
Tunisia4
Avg shots
Netherlands10
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 33% vs implied 51% · edge -18.5 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Netherlands average more shots (10) and shots on target (6.5) per game than Tunisia (4 shots, 1 on target), reflecting territorial control and offensive pressure. Tunisia's lower corner count and fouling rate suggest a reactive defensive approach, while the Dutch discipline and higher card count reflect aggressive pressing and attacking intent.

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Useful next reads

World Cup fixtures and predictionsfull betting preview for Tunisia v Netherlandscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Tunisia0.5
Avg goals scored
Netherlands3.5
Tunisia4.5
Avg goals conceded
Netherlands1.5
Tunisia50%
BTTS rate
Netherlands100%
Tunisia100%
Over 2.5 goals
Netherlands100%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 38% · edge +37.8 pts
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
2
Check odds @ 2
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 26%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Both teams have shown scoring ability recently: Netherlands average over 3 goals per game with high shot accuracy, while Tunisia have scored in most recent matches despite defensive issues. The Dutch defense's tendency to concede and Tunisia's attacking persistence make a BTTS outcome plausible, supporting expectations of a high-scoring game.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickNetherlands Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 89% · edge -12.5 pts
1.13
Check odds @ 1.13
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Netherlands to WinBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.09
Check odds @ 1.09
The for Netherlands to Win & Both Teams to Score reflect strong in Dutch attacking control while acknowledging their defensive lapses that allow Tunisia to score. The price offers good value given the model's 67% chance estimate and the 37.6% , indicating the market may underestimate the likelihood of both teams scoring alongside a Dutch victory.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Tunisia

LL
Last 50W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 2L
21 Jun 2026H Japan0-4
15 Jun 2026A Sweden1-5

Netherlands

WD
Last 51W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 0L
20 Jun 2026H Sweden5-1
14 Jun 2026H Japan2-2
Market aligned with main pickAway / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 84% vs implied 99% · edge -15 pts
1.01
Check odds @ 1.01
Load more odds for this section
Netherlands Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.13
Check odds @ 1.13
Netherlands to WinBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.09
Check odds @ 1.09
Recent form data shows Netherlands with 4 points and a strong goal difference, scoring 3.5 goals per game while conceding 1.5, indicating offensive efficiency and some defensive vulnerability. Tunisia have 0 points, scoring only 0.5 goals per game and conceding 4.5, highlighting their struggles but also their ability to score occasionally, which aligns with the BTTS expectation.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Tunisia wins
0Draws
0Netherlands wins
Market aligned with main pickNetherlands to WinBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 92% · edge -21.7 pts
1.09
Check odds @ 1.09
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
No previous head-to-head data exists between Tunisia and Netherlands, so historical meetings offer no direct insight. The analysis relies on current form, tactical styles, and recent performance metrics to assess likely match dynamics.
Season team stats

World Cup

Tunisia2
Played
Netherlands2
Tunisia0.5
Avg goals for
Netherlands3.5
Tunisia4.5
Avg goals against
Netherlands1.5
Tunisia0
Clean sheets
Netherlands0
Market aligned with main pickNetherlands Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 89% · edge -12.5 pts
1.13
Check odds @ 1.13
Load more odds for this section
Netherlands to WinBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.09
Check odds @ 1.09
Season-long stats reinforce Netherlands' attacking prowess with an average of 3.1 goals per game and consistent scoring in all matches. Tunisia's season profile shows frequent scoring but also defensive fragility, conceding heavily in recent matches. These patterns underpin the likelihood of a Dutch win with goals at both ends.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Netherlands421104
4Tunisia02002-8
Group F standings place Netherlands top with 4 points and a positive goal difference, reflecting their strong position and motivation to secure qualification. Tunisia sit bottom with no points and a poor defensive record, emphasizing their need to respond offensively despite defensive weaknesses. The standings context supports a Dutch win but leaves room for Tunisia to score.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Tunisia Over 2.5
100%Netherlands Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches, both teams have consistently participated in high-scoring games, with Netherlands averaging over 3 goals per game and Tunisia featuring in matches with frequent goal exchanges. The trend towards Over 2.5 goals is strong, driven by Dutch attacking tempo and Tunisia's defensive concessions, suggesting a lively, goal-rich encounter.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Tunisia v Netherlands prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Betting context

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