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Premier League | Sat 29 Aug, 17:30

Tottenham v Newcastle Stats

Data last updated: Fri 28 Aug 2026, 08:30 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Tottenham hosts Newcastle in a Premier League clash marked by contrasting recent fortunes and tactical nuances. Tottenham, struggling in 2026 with defensive frailties and missing Cristian Romero to suspension, rely on energetic starts and home support to ignite their attack, notably with creative spark from Xavi Simons. Newcastle arrive unbeaten in their last seven encounters with Tottenham, leveraging a potent counter-attacking style led by Anthony Gordon. Both teams have shown tendencies for goals, with Tottenham conceding in five straight matches and Newcastle’s defense vulnerable to pressure, setting the stage for a high-stakes, open contest.

BT4Y lean · price warning

To draw 2-2 with Man City

  • Tottenham scores before halftime in 19 of last 21 home games, showing strong early attacking intent
  • Newcastle unbeaten in last 7 matches vs Tottenham (5 wins, 2 draws), indicating tactical edge
  • Tottenham conceded at least two goals in five consecutive league matches, highlighting defensive issues
  • Newcastle’s counter-attacking speed, especially via Anthony Gordon, poses a threat against Tottenham’s high defensive line
Price warning

To draw 2-2 with Man City is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 40% while the model sits nearer 27% (-13.3 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Over 2.5 Goals shows a +15 pts edge at 1.62.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model identifies a 27% chance for a draw, reflecting Tottenham's home attacking potential and Newcastle's unbeaten H2H run. Despite a negative and a short price, the football read remains compelling due to Tottenham's scoring frequency and Newcastle's transition threat. Reduced staking is advised given the price sensitivity, with improvements in team news or drift needed for stronger value. The absence of key defenders and recent goal trends support a high-scoring draw scenario.

Model Chance27%
Neutral
Implied Market Chance40.3%
Negative
Recent FormHigh goal involvement and defensive lapses
Positive
H2H RecordNewcastle unbeaten in last 7 vs Tottenham
Positive
Price SensitivityCurrent odds are short, caution advised
Negative

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

This fixture is poised for an open game with Tottenham’s attacking urgency at home clashing against Newcastle’s effective counter-attacks. The tactical battle and recent goal trends suggest a draw with goals is plausible, reflecting both teams’ vulnerabilities and offensive capabilities.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match tactical and scoring dynamics

“Tottenham’s home energy combined with Newcastle’s unbeaten tactical blueprint creates a compelling scenario for a high-scoring draw, emphasizing transition play and defensive lapses on both sides.”

Key Data Signals

To draw 2-2 with Man City evidence

Tottenham scores before halftime in 19 of last 21 home games, showing strong early attacking intent

Newcastle unbeaten in last 7 matches vs Tottenham (5 wins, 2 draws), indicating tactical edge

Tottenham conceded at least two goals in five consecutive league matches, highlighting defensive issues

Newcastle’s counter-attacking speed, especially via Anthony Gordon, poses a threat against Tottenham’s high defensive line

What To Watch In The Data

To draw 2-2 with Man City notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 3.5, indicating a trend towards high-scoring matches.
  • Both teams’ recent over 2.5 goals rate is 100%, suggesting that this fixture is likely to continue the pattern of open, attacking football with multiple goal opportunities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Tottenham0
Avg goals scored
Newcastle2
Tottenham3
Avg goals conceded
Newcastle2
Tottenham0%
BTTS rate
Newcastle100%
Tottenham100%
Over 2.5 goals
Newcastle100%
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 77% vs implied 62% · edge +15 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 26%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Both teams have shown strong tendencies for goals, with Tottenham averaging 1.6 goals at home and Newcastle failing to keep clean sheets in five consecutive matches. Newcastle’s counter-attacking style and Tottenham’s early scoring pattern support the likelihood of goals from both sides, aligning with a BTTS and over 2.5 goals scenario.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 77% vs implied 62% · edge +15 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Newcastle Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
Newcastle to WinBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Tottenham Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
The for a 2-2 draw are currently short compared to the model’s 27% chance, indicating a price-sensitive market. While the football context supports a high-scoring draw, the negative suggests caution and recommends reduced stakes or waiting for to improve before committing fully.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Tottenham3
Avg corners for
Newcastle2
Tottenham10
Avg total corners
Newcastle8
Tottenham1
Avg yellow cards
Newcastle5
Tottenham9
Avg shots
Newcastle13
Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 62% · edge +13.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Over 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Tottenham averages 3 corners per game with moderate shot volume, while Newcastle generates more shots (13 per game) but fewer corners. Newcastle’s higher yellow card average (5 per game) reflects a more aggressive defensive approach, which could influence match tempo and set-piece opportunities, contributing to an open and physical contest.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Tottenham

L
Last 50W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 1L
22 Aug 2026A Brentford0-3

Newcastle

D
Last 50W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 0L
23 Aug 2026H Liverpool2-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 77% vs implied 62% · edge +15 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Newcastle Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
Newcastle to WinBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
Tottenham Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Tottenham to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Recent form data shows Tottenham struggling defensively with zero points and three goals conceded, while Newcastle has a slightly better record with a point and two goals scored. Both teams have a 100% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals recently, reinforcing expectations for an open, goal-rich encounter.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Tottenham wins
3Draws
6Newcastle wins
10 Feb 2026Tottenham v Newcastle1-2
02 Dec 2025Newcastle v Tottenham2-2
29 Oct 2025Newcastle v Tottenham2-0
03 Aug 2025Tottenham v Newcastle1-1
04 Jan 2025Tottenham v Newcastle1-2
01 Sep 2024Newcastle v Tottenham2-1
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 77% vs implied 62% · edge +15 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Newcastle to WinBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Tottenham to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
The head-to-head record strongly favors Newcastle, who remain unbeaten in the last seven matches against Tottenham with five wins and two draws. This historical control provides Newcastle with a psychological advantage, although Tottenham’s home form and attacking impetus could challenge this trend in the current fixture.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Premier League

Tottenham1
Played
Newcastle1
Tottenham0
Avg goals for
Newcastle2
Tottenham3
Avg goals against
Newcastle2
Tottenham0
Clean sheets
Newcastle0
Best odds for this sectionNewcastle Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 68% vs implied 53% · edge +15 pts
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
Load more odds for this section
Newcastle to WinBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
Tottenham Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
Tottenham to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Season-long stats reveal Tottenham’s home scoring average of 1.6 goals per game and Newcastle’s consistent offensive output, both supporting a scenario with multiple goals. Defensive vulnerabilities, especially Tottenham’s five consecutive matches conceding two or more goals, underline the potential for a high-scoring draw.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
11Newcastle110100
17Tottenham01001-3
Tottenham sits 18th, under pressure to improve results at home, while Newcastle is 11th, enjoying a psychological edge from recent unbeaten meetings. The league positions add context to the stakes, with Tottenham needing points to climb out of the relegation zone and Newcastle aiming to consolidate mid-table security.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Tottenham Over 2.5
100%Newcastle Over 2.5
3.5H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 3.5, indicating a trend towards high-scoring matches. Both teams’ recent over 2.5 goals rate is 100%, suggesting that this fixture is likely to continue the pattern of open, attacking football with multiple goal opportunities.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Tottenham v Newcastle prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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