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Lyon crestLyon
v
Rennes crestRennes

Ligue 1 | Sun 03 May, 19:45

Lyon v Rennes Stats

Data last updated: Sat 18 Jul 2026, 11:54 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Lyon face Rennes in Ligue 1 on Sun 03 May, 19:45. Lyon have secured 8 clean sheets at home this season, providing a sturdy foundation for their Champions League push. Both teams are in prolific scoring form, yet balanced by European aspirations.

BT4Y best bet

Ly away and Lyon finding the net at home consistently, a 2-2 draw provides high speculative value

  • At 8/15, Over 2.5 Goals implies roughly 65%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 71%.
  • With eight of the last nine meetings between these sides producing over 2.
  • The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Lyon and 80% for Rennes, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
  • Rennes are carrying more of the scoring load at 2.2 goals per match, with Lyon at 1.6.
  • BTTS rates of 60% for Lyon and 60% for Rennes show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 71% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 65% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Lyon and 80% for Rennes, so the goals angle is not just a price call. With eight of the last nine meetings between these sides producing over 2.

Model chance vs price71% model chance against roughly 65% implied
Neutral
The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Lyon and 80%.Visible data support
Positive
Rennes are carrying more of the scoring load at 2.2.Visible data support
Positive
With eight of the last nine meetings between these.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over that scoring level is the preferred angle because with eight of the last nine meetings between these sides producing over 2.5 goals and seven seeing both teams score, a high-scoring encounter is expected. The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Lyon and 80% for Rennes, so the goals angle is not just a price call. Recent meetings between these two have been anything but predictable.

Main risk

Recent meetings between these two have been anything but predictable.

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

With eight of the last nine meetings between these sides producing over 2.

The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Lyon and 80% for Rennes, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Rennes are carrying more of the scoring load at 2.2 goals per match, with Lyon at 1.6.

BTTS rates of 60% for Lyon and 60% for Rennes show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Use the last-five and H2H goal samples to judge whether Over 2.5 has a tempo route, not just a historical average.
  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Lyon1.6
Avg goals scored
Rennes2.2
Lyon1
Avg goals conceded
Rennes1
Lyon60%
BTTS rate
Rennes60%
Lyon60%
Over 2.5 goals
Rennes80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 64% · edge +7 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 33%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: recent Over 2.5 rates are 60% for Lyon and 80% for Rennes, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Ligue 1 fixtures and predictionsfull betting preview for Lyon v Rennescorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 64% · edge +7 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Rennes to WinBetfred guide price · model 58%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Rennes Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 59%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Lyon Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Over 2.5 Goals is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Lyon4.8
Avg corners for
Rennes8
Lyon11
Avg total corners
Rennes12.67
Lyon1.2
Avg yellow cards
Rennes2
Lyon11
Avg shots
Rennes14.67
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 56% · edge +13.4 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Over 4.5 CardsBetUK guide price · model 52%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 59%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Lyon

WWWDL
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
25 Apr 2026H Auxerre3-2
19 Apr 2026A Paris Saint Germain2-1
12 Apr 2026H Lorient2-0
05 Apr 2026A Angers0-0
22 Mar 2026H Monaco1-2

Rennes

WWWWD
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 108W 1D 1L
26 Apr 2026H Nantes2-1
19 Apr 2026A Strasbourg3-0
11 Apr 2026H Angers2-1
04 Apr 2026A Stade Brestois 294-3
22 Mar 2026H Metz0-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 83% vs implied 57% · edge +26 pts
1.76
Check odds @ 1.76
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Rennes to WinBetfred guide price · model 58%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Rennes Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Lyon Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Lyon to WinBetUK guide price · model 27%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Lyon wins
0Draws
6Rennes wins
14 Sep 2025Rennes v Lyon3-1
26 Apr 2025Lyon v Rennes4-1
18 Aug 2024Rennes v Lyon3-0
26 Jan 2024Lyon v Rennes2-3
12 Nov 2023Rennes v Lyon0-1
09 Apr 2023Lyon v Rennes3-1
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 64% · edge +7 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Rennes to WinBetfred guide price · model 58%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Lyon to WinBetUK guide price · model 27%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
The head-to-head sample gives context for Over 2.5 Goals, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Ligue 1

Lyon34
Played
Rennes34
Lyon1.6
Avg goals for
Rennes1.7
Lyon1.2
Avg goals against
Rennes1.5
Lyon15
Clean sheets
Rennes10
Best odds for this sectionRennes to WinBetfred guide price · Model 58% vs implied 31% · edge +26.8 pts
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Load more odds for this section
Rennes Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Lyon Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Lyon to WinBetUK guide price · model 27%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Season data supports Rennes to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
4Lyon60341861013
6Rennes593417899
Lyon sit in position 4, while Rennes sit in position 6, so table pressure belongs in the Over 2.5 Goals assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Lyon Over 2.5
80%Rennes Over 2.5
3.9H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Lyon sit at 60% and Rennes sit at 80% with the H2H average at 3.9 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Lyon v Rennes prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Competition and hubs

Ligue 1 hubLigue 1 fixtures and predictionsfull betting preview for Lyon v Rennescorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football stats

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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