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Foggia crestFoggia
v
Barletta crestBarletta

Serie C - Girone C | Mon 09 Nov, 19:30

Foggia v Barletta Stats

Data last updated: Sun 08 Nov 2026, 03:42 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Foggia and Barletta meet in a Serie C - Girone C clash where defensive solidity appears to be a key feature for both sides. Foggia, positioned 14th, have conceded 1.6 goals per game recently, while Barletta, sitting 17th, have been more resolute with just 0.6 goals conceded on average. Both teams have shown limited attacking output, with Barletta scoring only 0.4 goals per match, suggesting a cautious tactical approach. This encounter likely hinges on tight defensive organization and low scoring chances, setting the stage for a match with fewer goals.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Foggia concedes 1.6 goals per game, Barletta only 0.6, indicating defensive focus.
  • Barletta scores just 0.4 goals per match, highlighting limited attacking threat.
  • Foggia’s recent matches have a 60% rate of Over 2.5 goals, but Barletta’s rate is 0%, showing contrasting trends.
  • Both teams have low BTTS rates, especially Barletta at 20%, supporting a low-scoring game.
  • League positions (14th and 17th) reflect tight competition and cautious play styles.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 66% probability, reflecting the defensive tendencies and low scoring rates of both teams. Barletta’s minimal goal output and strong defensive record contrast with Foggia’s slightly higher concession rate, but overall, the match context suggests limited clear-cut chances. The at 1.65 offer a small positive , making Under 2.5 Goals a sensible selection given the tactical caution and recent form data. No price warnings apply, and the data quality is sufficient to support this view.

Model Probability66% model chance vs 60.6% implied (+5.4 pts)
Strong positive
Barletta Defensive Record0.6 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Foggia Offensive Output1.4 goals scored per game
Neutral
Recent Over 2.5 RatesFoggia 60%, Barletta 0%
Neutral
Value Edge66% model chance vs 60.6% implied (+5.4 pts)
Positive
Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Under 2.5 Goals rationale

“This fixture’s low scoring potential is underscored by Barletta’s defensive resilience and Foggia’s inconsistent attack, making Under 2.5 Goals a prudent selection based on tactical and statistical evidence.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Foggia concedes 1.6 goals per game, Barletta only 0.6, indicating defensive focus.

Barletta scores just 0.4 goals per match, highlighting limited attacking threat.

Both teams have low BTTS rates, especially Barletta at 20%, supporting a low-scoring game.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the recent sample, Foggia has a 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate, but Barletta has none, showing a strong defensive trend on Barletta’s side.
  • The lack of head-to-head history adds uncertainty, but the trend suggests the match tempo will be controlled with limited goal-scoring chances, favoring Under 2.5 Goals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Foggia1.4
Avg goals scored
Barletta0.4
Foggia1.6
Avg goals conceded
Barletta0.6
Foggia60%
BTTS rate
Barletta20%
Foggia60%
Over 2.5 goals
Barletta0%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 66% vs implied 61% · edge +5.4 pts
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 22%
4
Check odds @ 4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 52%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Goal trends show Barletta with a very low scoring rate of 0.4 goals per game and a 0% Over 2.5 rate, emphasizing their defensive focus. Foggia’s 60% Over 2.5 rate contrasts sharply, but their BTTS rate of 60% is not matched by Barletta’s 20%, suggesting Barletta’s defense will likely limit scoring opportunities, supporting a low goal total.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionFoggia to WinBetUK guide price · Model 54% vs implied 48% · edge +6.3 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Foggia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Barletta Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Barletta to WinBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
DrawBetfred guide price · model 27%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
The 66% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 60.6% implied by the current price (+5.4 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Foggia and 0% for Barletta, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Continue the research

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Foggia

DWLLW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
02 Nov 2026A Casarano2-2
25 Oct 2026H Cavese1-0
19 Oct 2026A Giugliano1-3
11 Oct 2026H Potenza1-3
04 Oct 2026A Cosenza2-0

Barletta

DLWDL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 5D 4L
31 Oct 2026H SS Monopoli0-0
24 Oct 2026A Scafatese0-1
18 Oct 2026H AZ Picerno1-0
12 Oct 2026H Cavese1-1
03 Oct 2026A Giugliano0-1
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 81% vs implied 78% · edge +2.4 pts
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Load more odds for this section
Foggia to WinBetUK guide price · model 54%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Foggia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Barletta Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Barletta to WinBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
DrawBetfred guide price · model 27%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Recent form data highlights Foggia’s moderate scoring with 1.4 goals per game and a 60% Over 2.5 rate, while Barletta’s form is more defensive with only 0.4 goals scored and no Over 2.5 matches. This contrast suggests Foggia may push for goals, but Barletta’s solidity could keep the match under 2.5 goals, reflecting a tactical battle between attack and defense.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Foggia Over 2.5
0%Barletta Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the recent sample, Foggia has a 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate, but Barletta has none, showing a strong defensive trend on Barletta’s side. The lack of head-to-head history adds uncertainty, but the trend suggests the match tempo will be controlled with limited goal-scoring chances, favoring Under 2.5 Goals.

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