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Mansfield Town crestMansfield Town
v
Chesterfield crestChesterfield

EFL Trophy | Tue 10 Nov, 19:00

Mansfield Town v Chesterfield Stats

Data last updated: Mon 09 Nov 2026, 03:07 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This EFL Trophy clash features Mansfield Town hosting Chesterfield in a midweek fixture where Chesterfield arrive in better recent form, having collected four points from their last two outings compared to Mansfield's struggles with no points. Chesterfield's attack has been more productive, averaging three goals per game recently, while Mansfield have conceded three per match, suggesting an open contest. Tactical discipline and finishing efficiency will be key, with Chesterfield likely to press their advantage and capitalize on Mansfield's defensive vulnerabilities in this knockout competition setting.

BT4Y best bet

Chesterfield to Win

  • Chesterfield has won 70% with strong recent form and goal scoring.
  • Mansfield Town have conceded 3 goals per game recently, indicating defensive frailty.
  • Chesterfield's attack averages 3 goals per game, showing strong offensive potential.
  • Marsh is a key goal threat with 2 goals and 2.57 shots on target per 90 minutes.
  • Mansfield Town averages 6 corners per game but only 1.5 yellow cards, showing moderate pressure and discipline.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Chesterfield's recent form and attacking output strongly favor a win here, with a 70% supported by their ability to score and maintain defensive solidity conceding only 2 goals per game. Mansfield Town's poor recent results and defensive struggles increase Chesterfield's chances. The price offers positive value with a 33.6% edge, making Chesterfield to Win a compelling selection. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Recent formChesterfield 4 points vs Mansfield 0 points
Strong positive
Goal scoringChesterfield 3 goals/game vs Mansfield 0.5 goals/game
Strong positive
Defensive recordMansfield concedes 3 goals/game vs Chesterfield 2 goals/game
Positive
Model confidence88% confidence in Chesterfield win
Strong positive
Price value42.4% model chance vs 36.4% implied (+6 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Chesterfield's superior recent form and attacking efficiency make them the tactical and statistical favorite to win this EFL Trophy tie. Their ability to convert chances and maintain defensive discipline contrasts with Mansfield Town's recent defensive lapses, tipping the balance decisively in Chesterfield's favor.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Chesterfield's consistent goal threat and recent momentum position them well to capitalize on Mansfield Town's defensive vulnerabilities in this knockout fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Chesterfield to Win evidence

Chesterfield has won 70% with strong recent form and goal scoring.

Mansfield Town have conceded 3 goals per game recently, indicating defensive frailty.

Chesterfield's attack averages 3 goals per game, showing strong offensive potential.

Marsh is a key goal threat with 2 goals and 2.57 shots on target per 90 minutes.

What To Watch In The Data

Chesterfield to Win notes

  • In the last six head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 1.5, indicating relatively low-scoring encounters.
  • However, recent form and attacking stats suggest this match could see more goals, with Chesterfield's offensive pressure and Mansfield's defensive issues likely to increase the tempo and scoring opportunities, supporting an Over 2.5 goals trend.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Mansfield Town0.5
Avg goals scored
Chesterfield3
Mansfield Town3
Avg goals conceded
Chesterfield2
Mansfield Town50%
BTTS rate
Chesterfield100%
Mansfield Town50%
Over 2.5 goals
Chesterfield50%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 65% · edge +10.6 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Both teams have a 50% rate for over 2.5 goals recently, with Chesterfield scoring an average of 3 goals per game and Mansfield conceding 3. This suggests a likelihood of goals from both sides, supporting an open game with BTTS potential. Chesterfield's offensive efficiency and Mansfield's defensive vulnerabilities increase the probability of goals at both ends.

Continue the research

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Mansfield Town

LL
Last 50W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 2L
06 Oct 2026A Port Vale0-2
19 Aug 2026H Manchester City U211-4

Chesterfield

DW
Last 51W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 0L
22 Sep 2026H Port Vale1-1
15 Sep 2026H Manchester City U215-3
Market aligned with main pickChesterfield to WinBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 36% · edge +6 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Chesterfield Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 50%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Chesterfield's recent form shows a clear upward trajectory with 4 points gained and 3 goals scored per match, contrasting with Mansfield Town's 0 points and only 0.5 goals scored per game. This disparity reflects Chesterfield's momentum and , which is likely to influence the match outcome positively for the away side.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickChesterfield to WinBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 36% · edge +6 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Chesterfield Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 50%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 40%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
The 42.4% for Chesterfield to Win sits against roughly 36.4% implied by the current price (+6 pts). Chesterfield have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 0 for Mansfield Town.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Mansfield Town Over 2.5
50%Chesterfield Over 2.5
1.5H2H avg goals
In the last six head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 1.5, indicating relatively low-scoring encounters. However, recent form and attacking stats suggest this match could see more goals, with Chesterfield's offensive pressure and Mansfield's defensive issues likely to increase the tempo and scoring opportunities, supporting an Over 2.5 goals trend.

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