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Crewe crestCrewe
v
Wigan crestWigan

EFL Trophy | Tue 10 Nov, 19:00

Crewe v Wigan Stats

Data last updated: Mon 09 Nov 2026, 03:07 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This EFL Trophy clash between Crewe and Wigan promises an open and attacking contest. Both teams have demonstrated strong offensive output recently, with Crewe scoring 3 goals in their last two matches and Wigan matching that tally. Defensively, both sides have shown vulnerabilities, conceding an average of 1.5 and 2 goals respectively, suggesting a match likely to see multiple goals. The tactical setup and recent form data indicate a high-tempo game where both teams seek to assert control through forward play, making goal-scoring opportunities plentiful and the outcome uncertain.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Crewe and Wigan both have a 100% rate of Over 2.5 Goals in recent matches.
  • Each team averages 11.5 shots per game with 6 on target, indicating strong attacking intent.
  • Crewe averages 7.5 corners per game, reflecting sustained pressure and attacking territory.
  • The head-to-head average goals stand at 2.38 over 8 matches, supporting a goal-rich encounter.
  • Murray has a notable goal threat with 1 goal and 3 shots on target per 90 minutes.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 78% chance to Over 2.5 Goals, reflecting the attacking strengths and defensive weaknesses of both teams. Both Crewe and Wigan have consistently produced high-scoring games recently, with perfect Over 2.5 records and strong shot volumes. The 19.2% positive at of 1.7 confirms this is a favorable market. The balanced offensive pressure from both sides and their recent form support the likelihood of a goal-laden match. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Recent Over 2.5 Rate100% for both teams
Strong positive
Average Shots per Game11.5 each with 6 on target
Strong positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals2.38 goals per match
Positive
Value Edge73.8% model chance vs 58.8% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Data QualityComplete for both teams
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with both Crewe and Wigan pushing forward aggressively, as recent form shows both sides capable of scoring and conceding multiple goals. The attacking profiles and shot volumes suggest Over 2.5 Goals is a sensible selection for this fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match attacking dynamics and goal potential

“The attacking momentum from both Crewe and Wigan, combined with their defensive lapses, sets the stage for a lively, high-scoring encounter in this EFL Trophy tie.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Crewe and Wigan both have a 100% rate of Over 2.5 Goals in recent matches.

Each team averages 11.5 shots per game with 6 on target, indicating strong attacking intent.

Crewe averages 7.5 corners per game, reflecting sustained pressure and attacking territory.

The head-to-head average goals stand at 2.38 over 8 matches, supporting a goal-rich encounter.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Analysis of the last eight head-to-head meetings shows an average of 2.38 goals per game, indicating a tendency for moderately high-scoring encounters.
  • This trend, combined with recent Over 2.5 Goals rates, suggests a sustained tempo and attacking intent likely to produce multiple goals in this match.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Crewe3
Avg goals scored
Wigan3
Crewe1.5
Avg goals conceded
Wigan2
Crewe100%
BTTS rate
Wigan100%
Crewe100%
Over 2.5 goals
Wigan100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 53%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 26%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Both teams have a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate recently, with Crewe and Wigan also showing high BTTS rates. Their offensive styles and defensive vulnerabilities combine to create a scenario where goals from both sides are highly probable, supporting a goal-rich match environment.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 75%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Wigan Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Wigan to WinBetfred guide price · model 31%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Crewe Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
DrawBetfred guide price · model 27%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
The 73.8% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 58.8% implied by the current price (+15 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Crewe and 100% for Wigan, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Crewe

DW
Last 51W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 0L
06 Oct 2026A Blackpool2-2
22 Sep 2026H Aston Villa U214-1

Wigan

WW
Last 52W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 0L
22 Sep 2026H Blackpool3-2
18 Aug 2026H Aston Villa U213-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 58% vs implied 58% · edge +0 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Wigan Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Wigan to WinBetfred guide price · model 31%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 69%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Crewe Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
DrawBetfred guide price · model 27%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Crewe to WinBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Recent form data shows both Crewe and Wigan consistently involved in high-scoring matches, each with a perfect 100% Over 2.5 Goals record. Their offensive output of 3 goals in last two matches combined with defensive concessions underlines the likelihood of a continued trend of multiple goals in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Crewe Over 2.5
100%Wigan Over 2.5
2.38H2H avg goals
Analysis of the last eight head-to-head meetings shows an average of 2.38 goals per game, indicating a tendency for moderately high-scoring encounters. This trend, combined with recent Over 2.5 Goals rates, suggests a sustained tempo and attacking intent likely to produce multiple goals in this match.

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