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Pineto crestPineto
v
Vis Pesaro crestVis Pesaro

Serie C - Girone B | Mon 09 Nov, 19:30

Pineto v Vis Pesaro Stats

Data last updated: Sun 08 Nov 2026, 03:42 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Pineto hosts Vis Pesaro in a Serie C - Girone B clash where Pineto's recent form and home advantage set the stage for a competitive encounter. Pineto has accumulated 14 points and sits 15th in the standings, showing more resilience compared to Vis Pesaro, who are 20th with just 5 points. Both teams have struggled offensively, but Pineto's slightly better defensive record and recent momentum suggest they can control the game. Vis Pesaro's defensive vulnerabilities and low scoring rate add to Pineto's chances of securing a home victory in this tight contest.

BT4Y best bet

Pineto to Win

  • Pineto holds a 74% to win, indicating strong in their victory.
  • Vis Pesaro has the league's weakest defense, conceding an average of 2 goals per game.
  • Pineto's recent form shows 7 points gained with a solid defensive record.
  • Both teams have low BTTS rates, suggesting a tight, low-scoring match.
  • Pineto ranks higher in the league and has home advantage, boosting their winning prospects.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Pineto to win with a 74% chance, reflecting their superior form, defensive solidity, and home advantage. Vis Pesaro's poor defensive record and low points tally increase the likelihood of a Pineto victory. The at 1.7 offer positive value given the model's higher probability estimate. While both teams show low scoring rates, Pineto's ability to limit goals conceded and capitalize on home conditions strengthens the case for backing them to win. No data limitations affect this assessment, making it a confident selection.

Model Win Probability74%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance73.8% model chance vs 58.8% implied (+15 pts)
Positive
Defensive RecordsPineto concedes 0.6 goals/game vs Vis Pesaro's 2.0
Strong positive
Recent Form PointsPineto 7 points vs Vis Pesaro 1 point
Strong positive
BTTS RatesPineto 20%, Vis Pesaro 40%
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Pineto's home advantage combined with their superior defensive form makes them the logical choice to win this fixture. Vis Pesaro's struggles at both ends of the pitch and low points tally further support backing Pineto. The data shows a clear edge for the home side, who should capitalize on their momentum and league position to secure victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Pineto to Win

“Pineto's defensive discipline and recent point accumulation create a strong foundation for a home win, especially against a Vis Pesaro side that has struggled to find consistency and defensive stability.”

Key Data Signals

Pineto to Win evidence

Pineto holds a 74% to win, indicating strong in their victory.

Vis Pesaro has the league's weakest defense, conceding an average of 2 goals per game.

Pineto's recent form shows 7 points gained with a solid defensive record.

Both teams have low BTTS rates, suggesting a tight, low-scoring match.

What To Watch In The Data

Pineto to Win notes

  • In the last six head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2, indicating a relatively low-scoring trend.
  • Combined with both teams' low BTTS rates and defensive tendencies, this suggests the match will likely be tight with few goals, reinforcing the controlled nature of the fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Pineto0.8
Avg goals scored
Vis Pesaro0.6
Pineto0.6
Avg goals conceded
Vis Pesaro2
Pineto20%
BTTS rate
Vis Pesaro40%
Pineto20%
Over 2.5 goals
Vis Pesaro60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 55% · edge +2.7 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 54%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Both teams have low BTTS rates, with Pineto at 20% and Vis Pesaro at 40%, suggesting a match with limited goal-scoring opportunities. Pineto's defensive strength and Vis Pesaro's low scoring average point to a controlled game with few goals, supporting a low-scoring, tight contest.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Pineto

LWWDL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
01 Nov 2026A Ravenna1-2
23 Oct 2026H Gubbio1-0
20 Oct 2026H Reggiana2-0
17 Oct 2026A Pianese0-0
04 Oct 2026A Guidonia Montecelio 19370-1

Vis Pesaro

DLLLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 8L
01 Nov 2026A Gubbio0-0
28 Oct 2026A Atalanta II1-2
24 Oct 2026H Ravenna0-4
18 Oct 2026A Latina0-1
10 Oct 2026H Grosseto2-3
Market aligned with main pickPineto to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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Pineto Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Pineto's recent form shows 7 points gained with a solid defensive record, contrasting sharply with Vis Pesaro's single point and higher goals conceded. This momentum difference suggests Pineto can impose their game plan effectively and maintain control throughout the match.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickPineto to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
Pineto Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
The 73.8% for Pineto to Win sits against roughly 58.8% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Pineto have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 1 for Vis Pesaro.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Pineto Over 2.5
60%Vis Pesaro Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
In the last six head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2, indicating a relatively low-scoring trend. Combined with both teams' low BTTS rates and defensive tendencies, this suggests the match will likely be tight with few goals, reinforcing the controlled nature of the fixture.

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