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Plymouth Parkway crestPlymouth Parkway
v
Berkhamsted crestBerkhamsted

FA Cup | Mon 09 Nov, 19:30

Plymouth Parkway v Berkhamsted Stats

Data last updated: Sun 08 Nov 2026, 03:37 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This FA Cup fixture between Plymouth Parkway and Berkhamsted sets the stage for a competitive encounter under the Monday night lights. Both teams have shown solid recent form, each accumulating 12 points in their last matches, but Berkhamsted's attacking edge is notable, averaging 2.75 goals scored per game compared to Plymouth Parkway's 2.25. Berkhamsted also tends to engage in higher-scoring affairs, with a 75% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, suggesting an open game. Defensive solidity is stronger for Plymouth Parkway, conceding only 0.5 goals per game, but Berkhamsted's offensive pressure and recent momentum make them a resilient side to beat or draw against.

BT4Y match pick · price watch

Berkhamsted or Draw

  • Berkhamsted or Draw offers strong value with a 71.9% versus 58.8% implied .
  • Berkhamsted averages 2.75 goals scored per game, showing attacking potency.
  • Plymouth Parkway concedes just 0.5 goals per game, indicating defensive resilience.
  • Berkhamsted's matches have a 75% Over 2.5 Goals rate, suggesting open play.
  • Recent form points are equal at 12 each, highlighting a balanced contest but with Berkhamsted's edge in attack.
Price warning

Berkhamsted or Draw is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 48% while the model sits nearer 42% (-5.9 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +11.3 pts edge at 1.57.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model favors Berkhamsted or Draw with a 71.9% chance, reflecting Berkhamsted's superior attacking numbers and higher Over 2.5 Goals rate compared to Plymouth Parkway. Despite Plymouth's strong defensive record, Berkhamsted's ability to generate shots and maintain offensive pressure makes them difficult to defeat. The price is positive value, as the market underestimates Berkhamsted's resilience and goal threat. Both teams' recent form is balanced, but Berkhamsted's offensive metrics and shot volume provide a solid foundation for this double chance selection.

Model Chance41.7% model chance vs 47.6% implied (-5.9 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance41.7% model chance vs 47.6% implied (-5.9 pts)
Strong positive
Berkhamsted Goals For2.75 per game
Strong positive
Plymouth Parkway Goals Against0.5 per game
Neutral
Over 2.5 Goals Rate (Berkhamsted)75%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Berkhamsted or Draw is a sensible pick given Berkhamsted's attacking edge and ability to create chances, balanced against Plymouth Parkway's defensive solidity. Berkhamsted's higher shot volume and goal-scoring frequency suggest they can avoid defeat, making this double chance a tactically sound and data-supported selection for this FA Cup tie.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · match outcome and attacking pressure

“Berkhamsted's offensive dynamism combined with their resilience makes them a tough side to beat in this fixture, especially considering Plymouth Parkway's lower shot output. This double chance captures the likely competitive nature of the match while valuing Berkhamsted's goal threat.”

Key Data Signals

Berkhamsted or Draw evidence

Berkhamsted or Draw offers strong value with a 71.9% versus 58.8% implied .

Berkhamsted averages 2.75 goals scored per game, showing attacking potency.

Plymouth Parkway concedes just 0.5 goals per game, indicating defensive resilience.

Berkhamsted's matches have a 75% Over 2.5 Goals rate, suggesting open play.

What To Watch In The Data

Berkhamsted or Draw notes

  • In the last two head-to-head matches, the average goals scored were 3, indicating a moderately high-scoring trend.
  • Berkhamsted's 75% Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent matches aligns with this, suggesting the fixture is likely to feature multiple goals and an open tempo, supporting offensive betting angles.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Plymouth Parkway2.25
Avg goals scored
Berkhamsted2.75
Plymouth Parkway0.5
Avg goals conceded
Berkhamsted1
Plymouth Parkway50%
BTTS rate
Berkhamsted75%
Plymouth Parkway50%
Over 2.5 goals
Berkhamsted75%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 64% · edge +11.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 82%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 46%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 29%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Berkhamsted's matches have a high Over 2.5 Goals rate of 75%, contrasting with Plymouth Parkway's 50%. This suggests Berkhamsted's games tend to be more open and goal-rich, supporting the likelihood of goals and BTTS scenarios in this fixture, driven by Berkhamsted's attacking style and shot volume.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 64% · edge +11.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Berkhamsted to WinBetUK guide price · model 42%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Berkhamsted Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 53%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Plymouth Parkway Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Plymouth Parkway to WinBetUK guide price · model 42%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
The 41.7% for Berkhamsted or Draw sits against roughly 47.6% implied by the current price (-5.9 pts). HBO Max is the UK streaming home of TNT Sports.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Plymouth Parkway

WWWW
Last 54W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 0D 0L
17 Oct 2026H Chertsey Town2-0
03 Oct 2026H Horsham2-1
19 Sep 2026A Frome Town2-0
05 Sep 2026A Gosport Borough3-1

Berkhamsted

WWWW
Last 54W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 0D 0L
17 Oct 2026A Southend2-1
03 Oct 2026A Redditch United2-0
19 Sep 2026H Hendon4-1
05 Sep 2026A Bishop's Stortford3-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 72% vs implied 59% · edge +13.1 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
Berkhamsted to WinBetUK guide price · model 42%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Berkhamsted Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 53%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 71%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Plymouth Parkway Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Plymouth Parkway to WinBetUK guide price · model 42%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Both Plymouth Parkway and Berkhamsted have earned 12 points recently, showing balanced momentum. However, Berkhamsted's superior goal-scoring rate and higher Over 2.5 Goals frequency indicate a more aggressive approach, which supports the double chance on Berkhamsted or Draw as they are more likely to avoid defeat through offensive pressure.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Plymouth Parkway Over 2.5
75%Berkhamsted Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
In the last two head-to-head matches, the average goals scored were 3, indicating a moderately high-scoring trend. Berkhamsted's 75% Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent matches aligns with this, suggesting the fixture is likely to feature multiple goals and an open tempo, supporting offensive betting angles.

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