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v
York crestYork

EFL Trophy | Tue 10 Nov, 19:30

Bradford v York Stats

Data last updated: Mon 09 Nov 2026, 03:07 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Bradford and York meet in the EFL Trophy with Bradford showing stronger recent form and defensive solidity, having conceded only 0.5 goals per game compared to York's 2. York's attack has struggled to convert chances efficiently, while Bradford's offense has been more consistent, scoring three goals in recent matches. The tactical setup suggests Bradford will aim to control the game and exploit York's defensive vulnerabilities, making them favorites in this fixture despite the cup setting's inherent unpredictability.

BT4Y match pick

Bradford to Win

  • Bradford has won 74% model-implied chance to win this match.
  • Bradford's recent form includes 3 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded per game.
  • York concedes 2 goals per game, indicating defensive weakness.
  • Bradford averages 14 shots with 5.5 on target, showing attacking pressure.
  • York's BTTS rate is 100%, but Bradford's defensive form suggests a clean sheet is possible.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Bradford to win with a 74% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and defensive record. Bradford's attack is efficient, averaging more shots on target per game than York, who have conceded heavily. The price at 1.75 offers positive value given the implied chance is only 57%. This pick is supported by Bradford's ability to control games and limit York's scoring opportunities. No data limitations affect , making this a solid selection based on form and statistical edge.

Model Chance55.8% model chance vs 57.1% implied (-1.3 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance55.8% model chance vs 57.1% implied (-1.3 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Defensive FormBradford concedes 0.5 goals per game
Strong positive
York Defensive WeaknessYork concedes 2 goals per game
Positive
Shot VolumeBradford averages 14 shots per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Bradford's recent defensive resilience and superior attacking output make them the tactical and statistical favorite to win this EFL Trophy match. York's defensive struggles and lower goal threat reduce their chances, supporting Bradford's likelihood of securing victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and tactical control

“Bradford's strong defensive record combined with their consistent attacking pressure positions them well to control this match and secure a win against a York side that has struggled defensively.”

Key Data Signals

Bradford to Win evidence

Bradford has won 74% model-implied chance to win this match.

Bradford's recent form includes 3 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded per game.

York concedes 2 goals per game, indicating defensive weakness.

Bradford averages 14 shots with 5.5 on target, showing attacking pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

Bradford to Win notes

  • The last four head-to-head matches average 4.25 goals, indicating a tendency for open games.
  • Bradford's 100% over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches contrasts with York's 50%, suggesting a higher tempo and goal-scoring potential in this fixture, though Bradford's defensive form may temper York's scoring chances.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Bradford3
Avg goals scored
York1
Bradford0.5
Avg goals conceded
York2
Bradford50%
BTTS rate
York100%
Bradford100%
Over 2.5 goals
York50%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 69% · edge +6.6 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
2
Check odds @ 2
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Bradford's defensive record of conceding only 0.5 goals per game contrasts with York's 2 goals conceded, indicating a likely low-scoring game. Despite York's 100% BTTS rate, Bradford's control and defensive discipline suggest a 'BTTS No' scenario is plausible, with Bradford limiting York's scoring chances effectively.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBradford to WinBetfred guide price · Model 56% vs implied 57% · edge -1.3 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Bradford Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
The 55.8% for Bradford to Win sits against roughly 57.1% implied by the current price (-1.3 pts). Bradford have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 1 for York.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Bradford

WW
Last 52W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 0L
06 Oct 2026A Rotherham4-0
22 Sep 2026H Newcastle United U212-1

York

DL
Last 50W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 1L
22 Sep 2026H Rotherham1-1
15 Sep 2026H Newcastle United U211-3
Market aligned with main pickBradford to WinBetfred guide price · Model 56% vs implied 57% · edge -1.3 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Bradford Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Bradford's recent form shows 6 points with 3 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded per game, demonstrating strong momentum and defensive stability. York's form is weaker with just 1 point and 1 goal scored, conceding twice as many goals, indicating Bradford's advantage in both attack and defense heading into this match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Bradford Over 2.5
50%York Over 2.5
4.25H2H avg goals
The last four head-to-head matches average 4.25 goals, indicating a tendency for open games. Bradford's 100% over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches contrasts with York's 50%, suggesting a higher tempo and goal-scoring potential in this fixture, though Bradford's defensive form may temper York's scoring chances.

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