Football Stats Hub

Plymouth crestPlymouth
v
Swindon Town crestSwindon Town

EFL Trophy | Tue 10 Nov, 19:00

Plymouth v Swindon Town Stats

Data last updated: Mon 09 Nov 2026, 03:07 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This EFL Trophy clash between Plymouth and Swindon Town promises an open and attacking contest. Plymouth's recent matches have seen a strong scoring trend, averaging 3.5 goals per game with a 100% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, while Swindon Town has been less prolific but still involved in games with goals. Plymouth's offensive approach, combined with Swindon's defensive vulnerabilities, sets the stage for a high-scoring encounter under floodlights on Tuesday evening.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Plymouth averages 3.5 goals per game with all recent matches over 2.5 goals.
  • Swindon Town concedes 2 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.
  • Plymouth averages 17 shots and 8.5 shots on target per match, showing strong attacking pressure.
  • Head-to-head meetings average 3.6 goals, supporting a high-scoring trend.
  • Pepple has 2 goals and 8.85 shots on target per 90 minutes, highlighting individual scoring threat.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 57.9% chance for Over 3.5 Goals, reflecting Plymouth's potent attack and Swindon Town's defensive struggles. Plymouth's perfect recent over 2.5 goals rate and high shot volume underline sustained offensive pressure. The head-to-head average of 3.6 goals further supports a high-scoring game. The current of 1.91 offer a small positive , making this an attractive bet without significant price sensitivity.

Plymouth's high scoring rate3.5 goals per game, 100% over 2.5 rate
Strong positive
Swindon Town's defensive concessions2 goals conceded per game
Positive
High shot volume from Plymouth17 shots, 8.5 on target per game
Strong positive
H2H average goals3.6 goals per match
Positive
Current odds vs model chance57.9% model chance vs 52.4% implied (+5.5 pts)
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with Plymouth's attacking prowess likely to dominate. Their recent form and shot statistics suggest multiple goals, while Swindon Town's defensive record indicates vulnerability. This combination points toward a match with at least four goals, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling selection.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and defensive weaknesses

“Plymouth's offensive firepower combined with Swindon Town's defensive lapses creates a strong case for a high-scoring match. The volume of shots and goal involvement from key players like Pepple underlines the likelihood of multiple goals.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Plymouth averages 3.5 goals per game with all recent matches over 2.5 goals.

Swindon Town concedes 2 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.

Plymouth averages 17 shots and 8.5 shots on target per match, showing strong attacking pressure.

Head-to-head meetings average 3.6 goals, supporting a high-scoring trend.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • The last ten head-to-head meetings average 3.6 goals per game, indicating a history of open, high-scoring encounters.
  • This trend suggests a fast tempo and attacking intent from both sides, reinforcing the Over 2.5 Goals trend panel for this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Plymouth3.5
Avg goals scored
Swindon Town0.5
Plymouth1.5
Avg goals conceded
Swindon Town2
Plymouth100%
BTTS rate
Swindon Town50%
Plymouth100%
Over 2.5 goals
Swindon Town50%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 58% vs implied 52% · edge +5.5 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 88%
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 28%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 28%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Plymouth's matches consistently feature goals, with a 100% over 2.5 goals rate and 100% BTTS rate, showing both teams score. Swindon Town's 50% rates suggest occasional scoring but also defensive lapses. The combined data supports a high-scoring game with goals from both sides likely.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

player stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 64% · edge +12.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Swindon Town Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 42%
3.55
Check odds @ 3.55
Plymouth Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Plymouth to WinBetfred guide price · model 64%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Swindon Town to WinBet365 guide price · model 18%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
DrawBetUK guide price · model 18%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
The 57.9% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 52.4% implied by the current price (+5.5 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Plymouth and 50% for Swindon Town, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Plymouth

DW
Last 51W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 0L
06 Oct 2026A Newport County2-2
22 Sep 2026H Crystal Palace U215-1

Swindon Town

LL
Last 50W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 2L
22 Sep 2026H Newport County0-2
15 Sep 2026H Crystal Palace U211-2
Best odds for this sectionSwindon Town Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 42% vs implied 28% · edge +13.8 pts
3.55
Check odds @ 3.55
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 82%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Plymouth Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Plymouth to WinBetfred guide price · model 64%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Swindon Town to WinBet365 guide price · model 18%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
DrawBetUK guide price · model 18%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Plymouth's recent form shows a perfect record of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, scoring 3.5 goals per game while conceding 1.5. Swindon Town's form is less prolific but still features goals, with a 50% over 2.5 rate. This contrast suggests Plymouth's attack will likely dominate and push the total goals above 3.5.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Plymouth Over 2.5
50%Swindon Town Over 2.5
3.6H2H avg goals
The last ten head-to-head meetings average 3.6 goals per game, indicating a history of open, high-scoring encounters. This trend suggests a fast tempo and attacking intent from both sides, reinforcing the Over 2.5 Goals trend panel for this fixture.

Loading deeper match data…