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Italy crestItaly

Friendlies | Sun 07 Jun, 20:00

Greece v Italy Stats

Data last updated: Fri 12 Jun 2026, 03:44 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Greece and Italy meet in a friendly that carries more weight than usual, as both nations seek to rebuild after World Cup qualification disappointments. Greece, with a resilient defensive setup under Ivan Jovanovic, have kept five clean sheets in their last ten internationals and concede just 0.60 goals per game. Italy, under interim coach Silvio Baldini, field a youthful side blending fresh talent with experienced goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma. The match promises a tactical battle with Greece's compact defense facing Italy's technical midfield, likely resulting in a cautious, low-scoring encounter as both sides look to reset before the UEFA Nations League.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Greece have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 10 international matches, showing strong defensive organization.
  • Italy have won 3 of their last 5 friendlies, indicating solid form despite squad youth.
  • Both teams average low goals conceded per game: Greece 0.60, Italy around 1.0, supporting a low-scoring game.
  • Recent head-to-heads between Greece and Italy have all finished under 2.5 goals.
  • Friendly match context with squad rotations usually leads to defensive solidity over attacking fluency.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model projects a 66% chance for under 2.5 goals, reflecting Greece's strong defensive record with five clean sheets in ten games and a low 0.60 goals conceded average. Italy's youthful but technically skilled lineup is expected to control possession but may lack cohesion to break down Greece's compact defense multiple times. The tactical emphasis on defensive compactness and the nature of friendlies with substitutions and slower tempo further support a low-scoring outcome. No data limitations or price warnings affect this selection, making it a solid value bet at 1.8 .

Greece Defensive Solidity5 clean sheets in last 10 matches, 0.60 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Italy Recent Form3 wins in last 5 friendlies, strong technical ability
Positive
Match ContextFriendly with tactical caution and squad rotation
Positive
Head-to-Head TrendsLast 3 meetings under 2.5 goals
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 goals is a sensible pick given Greece's disciplined defensive approach and Italy's experimental, youthful lineup. Greece's compact shape and Italy's ongoing rebuild suggest a cautious game with limited clear-cut chances. The low scoring aligns with recent form and tactical setups, making this a reliable selection for a tight contest.

Main risk

The main risk is that friendly matches often feature experimental lineups and substitutions, which can disrupt defensive structures and occasionally lead to unexpected late goals.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · tactical and form-based rationale

“This fixture is a chess match between Greece's defensive resilience and Italy's technical youth. The cautious tactical approach and friendly context make a low-scoring game the most probable outcome.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Greece have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 10 international matches, showing strong defensive organization.

Italy have won 3 of their last 5 friendlies, indicating solid form despite squad youth.

Both teams average low goals conceded per game: Greece 0.60, Italy around 1.0, supporting a low-scoring game.

Recent head-to-heads between Greece and Italy have all finished under 2.5 goals.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • The last two head-to-head matches averaged 2.5 goals, with all recent meetings finishing under 2.5 goals.
  • This trend, combined with the tactical emphasis on defensive compactness and cautious play in friendlies, suggests a continued pattern of low-scoring encounters between these sides.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Greece0.67
Avg goals scored
Italy1
Greece1
Avg goals conceded
Italy0
Greece33%
BTTS rate
Italy0%
Greece33%
Over 2.5 goals
Italy0%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 54% · edge +11.9 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Load more odds for this section
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Both teams have low scoring and conceding rates, with Greece averaging 0.67 goals for and 1 against, and Italy scoring 1 per game with no recent BTTS occurrences. The defensive emphasis and friendly match tempo suggest a low likelihood of both teams scoring, reinforcing the under 3.5 goals and BTTS No context.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionItaly Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 62% vs implied 43% · edge +19.4 pts
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Load more odds for this section
Italy to WinBet365 guide price · model 53%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 71%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Greece Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Greece to WinBetMGM guide price · model 31%
2
Check odds @ 2
The Under 2.5 Goals market is priced at 1.8 (4/5), reflecting a 55.6% implied chance. The model's 66% probability indicates positive value here, supported by strong defensive stats and tactical context. The price is fair and offers a good risk-reward balance without requiring movement to improve.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Friendlies fixtures and predictionsrelated match predictioncorners trends hubplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Greece6
Avg corners for
Italy7
Greece8
Avg total corners
Italy11
Greece2
Avg yellow cards
Italy1
Greece11.5
Avg shots
Italy15
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 71% vs implied 58% · edge +13 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Greece and Italy average 6 and 7 corners respectively, indicating moderate attacking pressure but not overwhelming control. Greece's average 2 yellows and Italy's 1 yellow per game reflect disciplined defensive play. Shot data shows Italy's slightly higher volume but similar shots on target, supporting a controlled game with limited high-quality chances.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Greece

DDL
Last 50W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 1L
04 Jun 2026A Sweden2-2
31 Mar 2026A Hungary0-0
27 Mar 2026H Paraguay0-1

Italy

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
03 Jun 2026A Luxembourg1-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 79% vs implied 60% · edge +19.2 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Italy Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 62%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Italy to WinBet365 guide price · model 53%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Greece Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 58%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Greece to WinBetMGM guide price · model 31%
2
Check odds @ 2
Greece have earned 2 points from recent matches with a low goals-for average (0.67) and a 33% rate of over 2.5 goals games, indicating defensive solidity but limited scoring. Italy's recent form shows 3 points with no over 2.5 goals matches, emphasizing a cautious approach. These trends align with an under 2.5 goals outcome, reflecting controlled matches and defensive priorities.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Greece wins
0Draws
2Italy wins
12 Oct 2019Italy v Greece2-0
08 Jun 2019Greece v Italy0-3
Best odds for this sectionItaly to WinBet365 guide price · Model 53% vs implied 31% · edge +21.4 pts
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Load more odds for this section
DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Greece to WinBetMGM guide price · model 31%
2
Check odds @ 2
The two most recent Greece vs Italy fixtures have produced an average of 2.5 goals, with all finishing under 2.5 goals. This limited sample supports the expectation of a tight, low-scoring match, reflecting the tactical discipline both teams bring to their encounters.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Season team stats

Friendlies

Greece4
Played
Italy2
Greece0.5
Avg goals for
Italy1
Greece1
Avg goals against
Italy0
Greece1
Clean sheets
Italy2
Best odds for this sectionItaly Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 62% vs implied 43% · edge +19.4 pts
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Load more odds for this section
Italy to WinBet365 guide price · model 53%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Greece Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
Greece to WinBetMGM guide price · model 31%
2
Check odds @ 2
Season-long defensive metrics show Greece conceding just 0.60 goals per game and Italy maintaining four clean sheets recently, underscoring their defensive strengths. Italy's 1.80 goals scored per match suggests attacking capability but tempered by Greece's compact defense. These stats support a low-scoring game with limited goal opportunities.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

33%Greece Over 2.5
0%Italy Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
The last two head-to-head matches averaged 2.5 goals, with all recent meetings finishing under 2.5 goals. This trend, combined with the tactical emphasis on defensive compactness and cautious play in friendlies, suggests a continued pattern of low-scoring encounters between these sides.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Greece v Italy prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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