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v
Spain crestSpain

UEFA Nations League | Sat 26 Sep, 19:45

England v Spain Stats

Data last updated: Sun 18 Oct 2026, 02:53 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

England face Spain in UEFA Nations League on Sat 26 Sep, 19:45. England's defensive reshuffle and Spain's scoring form increase the likelihood of an open game with multiple goals. The attacking numbers are substantial, but conceding in each of their last six games shows why greater control may be necessary against Spain.

BT4Y best bet

S, his current output adds another significant dimension to Spain's attacking threat

  • At 1.75, S, his current output adds another significant dimension to Spain's attacking threat implies roughly 57%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 58%.
  • England's recent high scoring and Spain's strong attack, led by Lamine Yamal, suggest a match with at least three goals.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 58% for S, his current output adds another significant dimension to Spain's attacking threat sits against roughly 57% implied by the current price. England's recent high scoring and Spain's strong attack, led by Lamine Yamal, suggest a match with at least three goals.

Model chance vs price58% model chance against roughly 57% implied
Neutral
England's recent high scoring and Spain's strong attack, led.Article support
Positive
Price sensitivityEdge +1.3 pts
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over that scoring level is the preferred angle because england's recent high scoring and Spain's strong attack, led by Lamine Yamal, suggest a match with at least three goals. However, that attacking potency has coexisted with defensive exposure, as both teams have scored in each of England's last six games.

Main risk

However, that attacking potency has coexisted with defensive exposure, as both teams have scored in each of England's last six games.

Key Data Signals

S, his current output adds another significant dimension to Spain's attacking threat evidence

England's recent high scoring and Spain's strong attack, led by Lamine Yamal, suggest a match with at least.

What To Watch In The Data

S, his current output adds another significant dimension to Spain's attacking threat notes

  • Use the last-five and H2H goal samples to judge whether Over 2.5 has a tempo route, not just a historical average.
  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

England-
Avg goals scored
Spain-
England-
Avg goals conceded
Spain-
England-
BTTS rate
Spain-
England-
Over 2.5 goals
Spain-
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 57% · edge +1.3 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 54%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet; goals for, goals conceded and recent over rates need to point in the same direction.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

UEFA Nations League fixtures and predictionsEngland v Spain predictionplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 57% · edge +1.3 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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Spain Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 52%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Spain to WinBetMGM guide price · model 43%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
England to WinBetfred guide price · model 30%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
DrawBetfred guide price · model 27%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Over 2.5 Goals is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

England

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for England yet.

Spain

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Spain yet.

Best odds for this sectionSpain Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 52% vs implied 48% · edge +4.7 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Spain to WinBetMGM guide price · model 43%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
England to WinBetfred guide price · model 30%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
DrawBetfred guide price · model 27%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
England Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-England Over 2.5
-Spain Over 2.5
3.67H2H avg goals
England's recent high scoring and Spain's strong attack, led by Lamine Yamal, suggest a match with at least three goals.

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