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Derry City crestDerry City
v
Waterford crestWaterford

Premier Division | Fri 03 Jul, 19:45

Derry City v Waterford Stats

Data last updated: Thu 02 Jul 2026, 05:33 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Derry City host Waterford in a Premier Division clash where both teams have shown attacking intent but defensive vulnerabilities. Derry City rank mid-table with 29 points, while Waterford struggle near the bottom with 17 points. Recent form shows both sides averaging over 1.8 goals scored per game, with Waterford conceding more at 1.8 per match. The fixture promises an open contest given the attacking profiles and defensive lapses, setting the stage for a potentially high-scoring encounter under Friday night lights.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Derry City and Waterford both average over 1.8 goals scored per game recently.
  • Waterford concedes 1.8 goals per match, indicating defensive frailty.
  • Both teams have high Over 2.5 Goals rates: 60% for Derry City, 80% for Waterford.
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.7 goals per game, suggesting a goal-rich history.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model estimates a 68.9% chance of Over 2.5 Goals, supported by strong attacking outputs and defensive weaknesses from both sides. Derry City average 13 shots per game with 5 on target, while Waterford average 15 shots with nearly 5 on target, indicating sustained offensive pressure. Historical head-to-head data shows an average of 3.7 goals per match, reinforcing the likelihood of a high-scoring game. No price warnings apply, making this a solid standard stake opportunity.

Model Probability68.9% chance of Over 2.5 Goals
Strong positive
Recent Scoring FormDerry City 1.8 and Waterford 2.2 goals per game
Strong positive
Defensive RecordsWaterford concedes 1.8 goals per game
Positive
H2H Goal Average3.7 goals per match in last 10 meetings
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with both sides pushing forward given their recent scoring trends and defensive vulnerabilities. The attacking roles of key players and historical goal averages suggest Over 2.5 Goals is a tactically and statistically sound selection for this fixture.

Main risk

The main risk is that either team could adopt a cautious approach or defensive adjustments may reduce goal opportunities, limiting the total goals scored.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and tactical openness

“This fixture features two teams with clear attacking intent but defensive lapses, making Over 2.5 Goals a logical expectation. The sustained shot volumes and goal averages underline the potential for multiple goals.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Derry City and Waterford both average over 1.8 goals scored per game recently.

Waterford concedes 1.8 goals per match, indicating defensive frailty.

Both teams have high Over 2.5 Goals rates: 60% for Derry City, 80% for Waterford.

Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.7 goals per game, suggesting a goal-rich history.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • The last 10 meetings between these teams have averaged 3.7 goals, indicating a historical trend of open games.
  • This sample suggests a tempo and style conducive to Over 2.5 Goals, with both sides contributing to goal-scoring opportunities consistently.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Derry City1.8
Avg goals scored
Waterford2.2
Derry City1.2
Avg goals conceded
Waterford1.8
Derry City80%
BTTS rate
Waterford60%
Derry City60%
Over 2.5 goals
Waterford80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 60% · edge +9 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 87%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 51%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 35%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Both teams have high BTTS rates and average goals per game above 1.8, with Waterford's defense conceding 1.8 goals per match. Their last 10 head-to-head games averaged 3.7 goals, highlighting a pattern of open, goal-rich encounters that favor Over 2.5 Goals.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 60% · edge +9 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Waterford Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 52%
4
Check odds @ 4
Waterford to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
7
Check odds @ 7
DrawBetfred guide price · model 30%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Derry City Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.23
Check odds @ 1.23
The Over 2.5 Goals market aligns well with the model's 68.9% probability, indicating a strong likelihood of multiple goals. The absence of price warnings suggests the are fair, supporting a standard stake approach without caution for overpricing.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

full betting preview for Derry City v Waterfordcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Derry City4.33
Avg corners for
Waterford4
Derry City10.33
Avg total corners
Waterford7.33
Derry City3.67
Avg yellow cards
Waterford2.67
Derry City13
Avg shots
Waterford15
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Derry City and Waterford generate similar corner counts (4.33 and 4 respectively) and maintain high shot volumes (13 and 15 per game), reflecting active attacking play. The moderate card counts suggest a competitive but not overly aggressive match, supporting sustained offensive pressure and shot opportunities.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Derry City

WDLWL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 5D 3L
26 Jun 2026H Drogheda United2-0
22 Jun 2026A Shamrock Rovers1-1
19 Jun 2026A Galway United1-2
12 Jun 2026H Bohemians4-1
29 May 2026A Dundalk1-2

Waterford

WLWDL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
26 Jun 2026A Dundalk3-2
19 Jun 2026H Shamrock Rovers0-2
12 Jun 2026H Sligo Rovers4-0
29 May 2026A Drogheda United3-3
22 May 2026A Shelbourne1-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 71% vs implied 36% · edge +34.6 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Load more odds for this section
Waterford Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 52%
4
Check odds @ 4
Waterford to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
7
Check odds @ 7
DrawBetfred guide price · model 30%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 73%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Derry City Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.23
Check odds @ 1.23
Derry City to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Recent form data shows both teams scoring frequently, with Derry City averaging 1.8 goals and Waterford 2.2 goals per game. Their Over 2.5 Goals rates of 60% and 80% respectively indicate a strong trend towards high-scoring matches in current fixtures.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

7Derry City wins
1Draws
2Waterford wins
15 May 2026Waterford v Derry City2-2
27 Feb 2026Derry City v Waterford4-2
17 Oct 2025Waterford v Derry City1-2
04 Jul 2025Derry City v Waterford7-2
25 Apr 2025Waterford v Derry City2-1
28 Feb 2025Derry City v Waterford1-2
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 60% · edge +9 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Waterford to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
7
Check odds @ 7
DrawBetfred guide price · model 30%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Derry City to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
The head-to-head record over the last 10 matches shows an average of 3.7 goals per game, strongly supporting the expectation of multiple goals. This historical data confirms that encounters between these teams tend to be high scoring, reinforcing the Over 2.5 Goals selection.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Premier Division

Derry City24
Played
Waterford22
Derry City1.3
Avg goals for
Waterford1.3
Derry City1.1
Avg goals against
Waterford2
Derry City6
Clean sheets
Waterford2
Best odds for this sectionWaterford Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 52% vs implied 25% · edge +26.5 pts
4
Check odds @ 4
Load more odds for this section
Waterford to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
7
Check odds @ 7
Derry City Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.23
Check odds @ 1.23
Derry City to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Season-long stats reveal both teams maintain aggressive attacking profiles, with Derry City averaging 13 shots and Waterford 15 shots per game. Defensive records show Waterford conceding more goals, increasing the likelihood of a high-scoring match that fits the Over 2.5 Goals market.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
6Derry City292461173
10Waterford17223811-16
Derry City's mid-table position with 29 points contrasts with Waterford's 10th place and 17 points, reflecting differing season trajectories. Waterford's need for points may encourage attacking play, while Derry City’s stable position allows for offensive freedom, both factors supporting a goal-rich game.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Derry City Over 2.5
80%Waterford Over 2.5
3.7H2H avg goals
The last 10 meetings between these teams have averaged 3.7 goals, indicating a historical trend of open games. This sample suggests a tempo and style conducive to Over 2.5 Goals, with both sides contributing to goal-scoring opportunities consistently.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Derry City v Waterford prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Betting context

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