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Derry City crestDerry City
v
Waterford crestWaterford

Premier Division | Fri 03 Jul, 19:45

Derry City v Waterford Stats

Data last updated: Fri 24 Jul 2026, 21:58 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Derry City face Waterford in Premier Division on Fri 03 Jul, 19:45. Each of the last six league meetings between Derry City and Waterford United has seen both teams find the net. Derry are strong at home with an unbeaten seven-game run, averaging over one goal per match.

BT4Y best bet

S using the Match and BTTS market or via a Bet Builder

  • At 18/5, S using the Match and BTTS market or via a Bet Builder implies roughly 22%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 37%.
  • Derry, for their part, have steadied themselves at home.
  • Derry City have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the S using the Match and BTTS market or via a Bet Builder angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Derry City sit 6 in the table, while Waterford sit 9, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 37% for S using the Match and BTTS market or via a Bet Builder sits against roughly 22% implied by the current price. Derry City have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the S using the Match and BTTS market or via a Bet Builder angle more than a raw possession edge. Derry, for their part, have steadied themselves at home.

Model chance vs price37% model chance against roughly 22% implied
Strong positive
Derry City have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Derry City sit 6 in the table, while Waterford sit.Visible data support
Positive
Derry, for their part, have steadied themselves at home.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Derry City Win is the preferred angle because derry, for their part, have steadied themselves at home. Derry City have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Derry City Win angle more than a raw possession edge. They sit above danger, but the games-played column complicates the picture.

Main risk

They sit above danger, but the games-played column complicates the picture.

Key Data Signals

S using the Match and BTTS market or via a Bet Builder evidence

Derry, for their part, have steadied themselves at home.

Derry City have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Derry City Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Derry City sit 6 in the table, while Waterford sit 9, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

S using the Match and BTTS market or via a Bet Builder notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Derry City1.8
    Avg goals scored
    Waterford2.2
    Derry City1.2
    Avg goals conceded
    Waterford1.8
    Derry City80%
    BTTS rate
    Waterford60%
    Derry City60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Waterford80%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 87%
    1.2
    Check odds @ 1.2
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 69%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 51%
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 35%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickDerry City to WinBet365 guide price · Model 43% vs implied 70% · edge -27.4 pts
    1.42
    Check odds @ 1.42
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 69%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 64%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Derry City Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
    1.24
    Check odds @ 1.24
    Derry City to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Derry City5
    Avg corners for
    Waterford3.75
    Derry City10.75
    Avg total corners
    Waterford7.75
    Derry City3
    Avg yellow cards
    Waterford2.5
    Derry City13
    Avg shots
    Waterford16.25
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 58% · edge -0.2 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 64%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Over 10.5 CornersBetUK guide price
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Derry City

    WDLWL
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 5D 3L
    26 Jun 2026H Drogheda United2-0
    22 Jun 2026A Shamrock Rovers1-1
    19 Jun 2026A Galway United1-2
    12 Jun 2026H Bohemians4-1
    29 May 2026A Dundalk1-2

    Waterford

    WLWDL
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 3D 4L
    26 Jun 2026A Dundalk3-2
    19 Jun 2026H Shamrock Rovers0-2
    12 Jun 2026H Sligo Rovers4-0
    29 May 2026A Drogheda United3-3
    22 May 2026A Shelbourne1-2
    Market aligned with main pickDerry City to WinBet365 guide price · Model 43% vs implied 70% · edge -27.4 pts
    1.42
    Check odds @ 1.42
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 73%
    1.1
    Check odds @ 1.1
    Derry City Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
    1.24
    Check odds @ 1.24
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    7Derry City wins
    1Draws
    2Waterford wins
    15 May 2026Waterford v Derry City2-2
    27 Feb 2026Derry City v Waterford4-2
    17 Oct 2025Waterford v Derry City1-2
    04 Jul 2025Derry City v Waterford7-2
    25 Apr 2025Waterford v Derry City2-1
    28 Feb 2025Derry City v Waterford1-2
    Market aligned with main pickDerry City to WinBet365 guide price · Model 43% vs implied 70% · edge -27.4 pts
    1.42
    Check odds @ 1.42
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 69%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Derry City to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    Premier Division

    Derry City25
    Played
    Waterford24
    Derry City1.3
    Avg goals for
    Waterford1.4
    Derry City1.2
    Avg goals against
    Waterford2
    Derry City6
    Clean sheets
    Waterford2
    Market aligned with main pickDerry City to WinBet365 guide price · Model 43% vs implied 70% · edge -27.4 pts
    1.42
    Check odds @ 1.42
    Load more odds for this section
    Derry City Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
    1.24
    Check odds @ 1.24
    Season data supports Derry City to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    6Derry City292561181
    9Waterford21244911-14
    Derry City sit in position 6, while Waterford sit in position 9, so table pressure belongs in the S using the Match and BTTS market or via a Bet Builder assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Derry City Over 2.5
    80%Waterford Over 2.5
    3.7H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Derry City sit at 60% and Waterford sit at 80% with the H2H average at 3.7 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.