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Club Queretaro crestClub Queretaro
v
Monterrey crestMonterrey

Liga MX | Sat 14 Nov, 23:00

Club Queretaro v Monterrey Stats

Data last updated: Thu 10 Sep 2026, 17:15 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Club Queretaro hosts Monterrey in a Liga MX clash where recent form and tactical dynamics suggest a competitive encounter. Queretaro has accumulated 10 points with a solid defensive record conceding 1.2 goals per game, while Monterrey has 9 points and a slightly higher concession rate. Queretaro's home advantage and ability to control tempo through midfield presence could be decisive. Monterrey's attacking threat, led by key players, ensures this match will be contested intensely, with both sides capable of scoring but Queretaro's recent momentum and home form give them an edge.

BT4Y best bet

Club Queretaro to Win

  • Club Queretaro holds a 60.3% to win, with strong value at 3.5 .
  • Queretaro averages 1.8 goals scored and concedes 1.2 per game, showing balanced performance.
  • Monterrey has higher shot volume but less defensive solidity, conceding 1.6 goals per game.
  • Recent form favors Queretaro with 10 points versus Monterrey's 6 in recent matches.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Club Queretaro to win due to their superior recent form, better defensive record, and home advantage. Queretaro's 80% over 2.5 goals rate and 80% BTTS rate indicate an open style that can exploit Monterrey's defensive vulnerabilities. Monterrey's higher shot volume is offset by their 1.6 goals conceded per game, suggesting Queretaro's attack can capitalize. The 31.7% at 3.5 highlights this as a strong betting opportunity with high .

Recent FormQueretaro has 10 points recently vs Monterrey's 6
Strong positive
Defensive RecordQueretaro concedes 1.2 goals/game, Monterrey 1.6
Positive
Home AdvantageQueretaro ranked 6th with strong home form
Positive
Value Edge31.7% positive edge at 3.5 odds
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Club Queretaro's recent form and home defensive solidity provide a tactical and statistical foundation for a win against Monterrey. Their ability to control midfield and capitalize on Monterrey's defensive lapses makes them the favored side in this matchup.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Queretaro's blend of disciplined defense and opportunistic attack, combined with Monterrey's defensive inconsistencies, shapes this as a favorable scenario for a home victory.”

Key Data Signals

Club Queretaro to Win evidence

Club Queretaro holds a 60.3% to win, with strong value at 3.5 .

Queretaro averages 1.8 goals scored and concedes 1.2 per game, showing balanced performance.

Monterrey has higher shot volume but less defensive solidity, conceding 1.6 goals per game.

Recent form favors Queretaro with 10 points versus Monterrey's 6 in recent matches.

What To Watch In The Data

Club Queretaro to Win notes

  • In the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.2, with a trend towards matches exceeding 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams' attacking styles and defensive vulnerabilities contribute to a higher tempo and goal-scoring opportunities, suggesting an open and dynamic match environment.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Club Queretaro4.4
Avg corners for
Monterrey7.4
Club Queretaro10.4
Avg total corners
Monterrey10.2
Club Queretaro3.4
Avg yellow cards
Monterrey1.4
Club Queretaro14.2
Avg shots
Monterrey18.6
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 51% · edge +4.6 pts
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Monterrey averages 7.4 corners and 18.6 shots per game, reflecting their attacking pressure, while Queretaro's 4.4 corners and 14.2 shots indicate a more measured approach. Queretaro's higher yellow card average (3.4) versus Monterrey (1.4) suggests a more physical style that could disrupt Monterrey's rhythm and limit their attacking flow.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Club Queretaro1.8
Avg goals scored
Monterrey2
Club Queretaro1.2
Avg goals conceded
Monterrey1.6
Club Queretaro80%
BTTS rate
Monterrey60%
Club Queretaro80%
Over 2.5 goals
Monterrey60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 64% · edge +12.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 81%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Both teams show tendencies towards open play, with Queretaro's 80% BTTS and over 2.5 goals rates indicating frequent goal exchanges. Monterrey's 60% rates support a moderately attacking game. This suggests a match likely to feature goals from both sides, driven by offensive intent and defensive vulnerabilities.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickClub Queretaro to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Club Queretaro Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 58%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
The 3.5 for Club Queretaro to win offer significant value given the model's 60.3% win probability. This discrepancy between implied and suggests the market underestimates Queretaro's home form and defensive strengths, making this a price-sensitive opportunity worth considering.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Club Queretaro

WLDWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 2L
30 Aug 2026A Atlas3-1
22 Aug 2026H Toluca1-2
16 Aug 2026A U.N.A.M. - Pumas0-0
02 Aug 2026H Tigres UANL3-2
27 Jul 2026A CF Pachuca2-1

Monterrey

LLWWL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 0D 3L
31 Aug 2026H Atletico San Luis1-3
22 Aug 2026A Leon0-2
16 Aug 2026H FC Juarez6-1
02 Aug 2026A Atlas2-0
27 Jul 2026A Necaxa1-2
Market aligned with main pickClub Queretaro to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
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Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Club Queretaro Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 58%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Queretaro's recent form is stronger, with 10 points compared to Monterrey's 6 in recent matches. Their ability to score 1.8 goals per game while maintaining a tighter defense has translated into better results, suggesting momentum and that could influence the match outcome.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Club Queretaro wins
3Draws
6Monterrey wins
05 Mar 2026Monterrey v Club Queretaro4-0
15 Sep 2025Club Queretaro v Monterrey0-1
16 Feb 2025Club Queretaro v Monterrey2-4
21 Jul 2024Monterrey v Club Queretaro2-1
25 Jan 2024Monterrey v Club Queretaro1-1
11 Nov 2023Club Queretaro v Monterrey0-0
Market aligned with main pickClub Queretaro to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
The head-to-head record over the last ten matches shows an average of 2.2 goals per game, indicating moderately open contests. While the sample is balanced, it provides background context rather than strong predictive power, emphasizing the importance of current form and tactical setups for this fixture.
Season team stats

Liga MX

Club Queretaro6
Played
Monterrey6
Club Queretaro1.5
Avg goals for
Monterrey2.2
Club Queretaro1.2
Avg goals against
Monterrey1.7
Club Queretaro1
Clean sheets
Monterrey1
Market aligned with main pickClub Queretaro to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Load more odds for this section
Club Queretaro Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 58%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Over the season, Queretaro's balanced attack and defense, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.2 goals per game, underpin their competitive edge. Monterrey's higher goals scored (2.0) are offset by a leaky defense conceding 1.6 goals per game, highlighting defensive frailties that Queretaro can exploit.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
7Club Queretaro1063122
10Monterrey963033
Queretaro sits 6th in the Liga MX standings, just above Monterrey in 9th, reflecting a marginal advantage in league performance. While the table gap is narrow, Queretaro's slightly better points tally and home form add pressure on Monterrey to respond effectively in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Club Queretaro Over 2.5
60%Monterrey Over 2.5
2.2H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.2, with a trend towards matches exceeding 2.5 goals. Both teams' attacking styles and defensive vulnerabilities contribute to a higher tempo and goal-scoring opportunities, suggesting an open and dynamic match environment.

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Fixture links

Prediction context

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