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Spain crestSpain
v
Austria crestAustria

World Cup | Thu 02 Jul, 20:00

Spain v Austria Stats

Data last updated: Fri 24 Jul 2026, 08:57 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Spain face Austria in World Cup on Thu 02 Jul, 20:00. Spain enter this knockout tie with complete defensive authority, keeping three clean sheets in the group stage while controlling 69.4% possession.

BT4Y lean · price warning

) Spain enter this knockout phase as clear structural favorites, sustained by defensive dominance and extreme possession control

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 77%, above the 63% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • At 3/10, ) Spain enter this knockout phase as clear structural favorites, sustained by defensive dominance and extreme possession control implies roughly 77%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 63%.
  • Spain's flawless defensive record of zero tournament goals conceded combines with an efficient attacking frontline.
  • Spain have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 4 for Austria.
  • Spain have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the ) Spain enter this knockout phase as clear structural favorites, sustained by defensive dominance and extreme possession control angle more.
Price warning

) Spain enter this knockout phase as clear structural favorites, sustained by defensive dominance and extreme possession control is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 77% while the model sits nearer 63% (-13.7 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Austria Draw No Bet shows a +15 pts edge at 5.5.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 63% for ) Spain enter this knockout phase as clear structural favorites, sustained by defensive dominance and extreme possession control sits against roughly 77% implied by the current price. Spain have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 4 for Austria. Spain's flawless defensive record of zero tournament goals conceded combines with an efficient attacking frontline.

Model chance vs price63% model chance against roughly 77% implied
Negative
Spain have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points.Visible data support
Positive
Spain have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Spain's flawless defensive record of zero tournament goals conceded.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Spain Win is the preferred angle because spain's flawless defensive record of zero tournament goals conceded combines with an efficient attacking frontline. Spain have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 4 for Austria. Austria have been the side of movement, risk and emotional whiplash.

Main risk

Austria have been the side of movement, risk and emotional whiplash.

Key Data Signals

) Spain enter this knockout phase as clear structural favorites, sustained by defensive dominance and extreme possession control evidence

Spain's flawless defensive record of zero tournament goals conceded combines with an efficient attacking frontline.

Spain have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 4 for Austria.

Spain have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Spain Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

) Spain enter this knockout phase as clear structural favorites, sustained by defensive dominance and extreme possession control notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Spain7.67
    Avg corners for
    Austria3.33
    Spain8.67
    Avg total corners
    Austria4.67
    Spain0.67
    Avg yellow cards
    Austria1.33
    Spain18.33
    Avg shots
    Austria9
    Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 50% · edge +1 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
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    Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 29%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 35%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Spain1.67
    Avg goals scored
    Austria2
    Spain0
    Avg goals conceded
    Austria2
    Spain0%
    BTTS rate
    Austria67%
    Spain33%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Austria67%
    Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 48% · edge +6.4 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
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    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 68%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 54%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 50%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 32%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Under 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: recent Over 2.5 rates are 33% for Spain and 67% for Austria, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickSpain to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 77% · edge -13.7 pts
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
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    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 51%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Spain Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 72%
    1.15
    Check odds @ 1.15
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 50%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 35%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Spain to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Spain

    WWD
    Last 52W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 1D 0L
    27 Jun 2026A Uruguay1-0
    21 Jun 2026H Saudi Arabia4-0
    15 Jun 2026H Cape Verde Islands0-0

    Austria

    DLW
    Last 51W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 1D 1L
    28 Jun 2026A Algeria3-3
    22 Jun 2026A Argentina0-2
    17 Jun 2026H Jordan3-1
    Market aligned with main pickSpain to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 77% · edge -13.7 pts
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
    1.06
    Check odds @ 1.06
    Spain Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 72%
    1.15
    Check odds @ 1.15
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Spain wins
    0Draws
    0Austria wins
    Market aligned with main pickSpain to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 77% · edge -13.7 pts
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
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    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 50%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    There is no strong recent head-to-head sample for Spain to Win, which makes current output, injuries and market timing more important than historic meetings.
    Season team stats

    World Cup

    Spain8
    Played
    Austria4
    Spain1.8
    Avg goals for
    Austria1.5
    Spain0.1
    Avg goals against
    Austria2.3
    Spain7
    Clean sheets
    Austria0
    Market aligned with main pickSpain to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 77% · edge -13.7 pts
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Load more odds for this section
    Spain Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 72%
    1.15
    Check odds @ 1.15
    Season data supports Spain to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    1Spain732105
    2Austria431110
    World Cup standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    33%Spain Over 2.5
    67%Austria Over 2.5
    -H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Spain sit at 33% and Austria sit at 67%, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Spain v Austria prediction

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    Betting context

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