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Londrina crestLondrina
v
Nautico Recife crestNautico Recife

Serie B | Wed 11 Nov, 22:00

Londrina v Nautico Recife Stats

Data last updated: Tue 10 Nov 2026, 03:11 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Londrina and Nautico Recife meet in a Serie B clash where both teams have shown physical intensity and defensive resilience amid mid-table pressure. Londrina, ranked 18th, and Nautico Recife, 15th, have recent form indicating tight contests with limited goal output but a high likelihood of fouls and disciplinary actions. The match is expected to be competitive with tactical battles in midfield and a focus on disrupting play, setting the stage for a potentially card-heavy encounter under the lights on November 11.

BT4Y best bet

Over 4.5 Cards

  • Both teams average over 2 yellow cards per game, with Nautico Recife at 3.4 and Londrina at 2.0.
  • Recent matches show Londrina concedes 2.2 goals per game, indicating defensive pressure that can lead to fouls.
  • Nautico Recife’s midfielders, especially Samuel and Leonai, have high card risk profiles, contributing to disciplinary chances.
  • The model estimates a 66.1% chance for over 4.5 cards, above the implied market chance, suggesting value in this market.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies a strong likelihood of over 4.5 cards due to both teams’ aggressive defensive styles and high foul rates. Nautico Recife’s midfielders Samuel and Leonai have high card risk indexes, while Londrina’s defensive pressure often forces fouls. The combined disciplinary tendencies and tactical intensity forecast a match with frequent cautions. The current of 1.62 offer a small positive , making this a sensible pick with standard stake guidance.

Model Probability66.1% model chance vs 61.7% implied (+4.4 pts)
Strong positive
Average Yellow CardsNautico Recife 3.4, Londrina 2.0 per game
Strong positive
Player Card RiskHigh card risk for Nautico Recife midfielders Samuel and Leonai
Positive
Recent Defensive PressureLondrina concedes 2.2 goals per game, indicating fouls and pressure
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a physically intense match with both teams eager to assert control in midfield, leading to frequent fouls and cautions. The data shows a consistent pattern of disciplinary actions, especially from Nautico Recife’s midfielders, supporting the over 4.5 cards pick as a tactical and statistical outcome.

Main risk

The card line needs match pressure and repeated duels; a controlled game state would weaken the booking angle.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · cards market

“This fixture’s midfield battles and defensive urgency create a natural environment for multiple cautions, making over 4.5 cards a compelling market to watch.”

Key Data Signals

Over 4.5 Cards evidence

Both teams average over 2 yellow cards per game, with Nautico Recife at 3.4 and Londrina at 2.0.

Recent matches show Londrina concedes 2.2 goals per game, indicating defensive pressure that can lead to fouls.

Nautico Recife’s midfielders, especially Samuel and Leonai, have high card risk profiles, contributing to disciplinary chances.

The model estimates a 66.1% chance for over 4.5 cards, above the implied market chance, suggesting value in this market.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 4.5 Cards notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.3, indicating moderate scoring but not necessarily open play.
  • The trend suggests a match tempo that favors tactical fouling and defensive caution, which aligns with a higher card count rather than goal-heavy outcomes.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Londrina1
Avg goals scored
Nautico Recife0.2
Londrina2.2
Avg goals conceded
Nautico Recife1.8
Londrina60%
BTTS rate
Nautico Recife0%
Londrina80%
Over 2.5 goals
Nautico Recife40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetfred guide price · Model 54% vs implied 50% · edge +4 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 75%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 47%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 39%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 50%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Both teams have low goal-scoring rates recently, with Londrina scoring 1 goal and Nautico Recife 0.2 goals per game, and a modest BTTS rate for Londrina at 60% but 0% for Nautico Recife. This points to a cautious attacking approach, increasing the likelihood of fouls and cards rather than open, high-scoring play.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

corners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionNautico Recife Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 45% vs implied 30% · edge +15 pts
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
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Nautico Recife to WinBetUK guide price · model 34%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 50%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Londrina Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 57%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Londrina to WinBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
The 66.1% for Over 4.5 Cards sits against roughly 61.7% implied by the current price (+4.4 pts). Nautico Recife have the higher yellow-card average at 3.4, while Londrina sit at 2.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Londrina

LLLWD
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 7L
05 Nov 2026A Botafogo SP0-4
01 Nov 2026H America Mineiro1-3
24 Oct 2026A CRB1-2
20 Oct 2026H Cuiaba1-0
13 Oct 2026A Athletic Club2-2

Nautico Recife

LWLDL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
08 Nov 2026H CRB0-3
31 Oct 2026H Avai1-0
26 Oct 2026A Juventude0-4
19 Oct 2026A Goias0-0
11 Oct 2026H Vila Nova0-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
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Nautico Recife Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Nautico Recife to WinBetUK guide price · model 34%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Londrina Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 57%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Londrina to WinBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Recent form shows both teams earning 4 points in their last matches, with Londrina conceding 2.2 goals and Nautico Recife 1.8, reflecting defensive vulnerabilities that often lead to fouls and cards. Londrina’s 80% over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Nautico Recife’s 40%, but the card averages remain consistently high, reinforcing the over 4.5 cards angle.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Londrina Over 2.5
40%Nautico Recife Over 2.5
2.3H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.3, indicating moderate scoring but not necessarily open play. The trend suggests a match tempo that favors tactical fouling and defensive caution, which aligns with a higher card count rather than goal-heavy outcomes.

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