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Portugal crestPortugal
v
Croatia crestCroatia

World Cup | Fri 03 Jul, 00:00

Portugal v Croatia Stats

Data last updated: Sat 25 Jul 2026, 11:49 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Portugal face Croatia in World Cup on Fri 03 Jul, 00:00. Portugal possess superior squad depth and defensive stability, conceding just once in the group stage. Portugal's defensive record of one goal conceded highlights their balance against Croatia's competitive tournament form.

BT4Y best bet

Portugal Win

  • At 90, Portugal Win implies roughly 1%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 16%.
  • With individual match-winners like Bruno Fernandes and Cristiano Ronaldo, they can break down a stubborn Croatia side that has shown defensive vulnerabilities in their.
  • Croatia have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 5 for Portugal.
  • Portugal have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.33 conceded per match, which helps the Portugal Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 16% for Portugal Win sits against roughly 1% implied by the current price. Croatia have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 5 for Portugal. With individual match-winners like Bruno Fernandes and Cristiano Ronaldo, they can break down a stubborn Croatia side that has shown defensive vulnerabilities in their.

Model chance vs price16% model chance against roughly 1% implied
Strong positive
Croatia have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points.Visible data support
Positive
Portugal have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.33 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
With individual match-winners like Bruno Fernandes and Cristiano Ronaldo.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Portugal Win is the preferred angle because with individual match-winners like Bruno Fernandes and Cristiano Ronaldo, they can break down a stubborn Croatia side that has shown defensive vulnerabilities in their opening tournament matches. Croatia have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 5 for Portugal. Both teams finished second in their groups, but they arrive with very different profiles.

Main risk

Both teams finished second in their groups, but they arrive with very different profiles.

Key Data Signals

Portugal Win evidence

With individual match-winners like Bruno Fernandes and Cristiano Ronaldo, they can break down a stubborn Croatia side that.

Croatia have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 5 for Portugal.

Portugal have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.33 conceded per match, which helps the Portugal Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Portugal Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Portugal2
    Avg goals scored
    Croatia1.67
    Portugal0.33
    Avg goals conceded
    Croatia1.67
    Portugal33%
    BTTS rate
    Croatia67%
    Portugal33%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Croatia67%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 61% vs implied 52% · edge +8.8 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 73%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 55%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 37%
    3.5
    Check odds @ 3.5
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 43%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickPortugal to WinBet365 guide price · Model 48% vs implied 58% · edge -9.8 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 61%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 55%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 51%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 51%
    1.82
    Check odds @ 1.82
    Portugal Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 58%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Portugal to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    World Cup fixtures and predictionsPortugal v Croatia predictioncorners trends hubplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Portugal3.33
    Avg corners for
    Croatia2.33
    Portugal7
    Avg total corners
    Croatia8
    Portugal1.33
    Avg yellow cards
    Croatia0.67
    Portugal12.33
    Avg shots
    Croatia8
    Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 46% · edge +5.5 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 51%
    1.82
    Check odds @ 1.82
    Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Portugal

    DWD
    Last 51W 2D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 2D 0L
    28 Jun 2026A Colombia0-0
    23 Jun 2026H Uzbekistan5-0
    17 Jun 2026H Congo DR1-1

    Croatia

    WWL
    Last 52W 0D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 0D 1L
    27 Jun 2026H Ghana2-1
    24 Jun 2026A Panama1-0
    17 Jun 2026A England2-4
    Market aligned with main pickPortugal to WinBet365 guide price · Model 48% vs implied 58% · edge -9.8 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 77%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Portugal Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 58%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    4Portugal wins
    2Draws
    1Croatia wins
    18 Nov 2024Croatia v Portugal1-1
    05 Sep 2024Portugal v Croatia2-1
    08 Jun 2024Portugal v Croatia1-2
    17 Nov 2020Croatia v Portugal2-3
    05 Sep 2020Portugal v Croatia4-1
    06 Sep 2018Portugal v Croatia1-1
    Market aligned with main pickPortugal to WinBet365 guide price · Model 48% vs implied 58% · edge -9.8 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 61%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 55%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Portugal to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    World Cup

    Portugal5
    Played
    Croatia4
    Portugal1.6
    Avg goals for
    Croatia1.5
    Portugal0.6
    Avg goals against
    Croatia1.8
    Portugal2
    Clean sheets
    Croatia1
    Market aligned with main pickPortugal to WinBet365 guide price · Model 48% vs implied 58% · edge -9.8 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Load more odds for this section
    Portugal Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 58%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Season data supports Portugal to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    2Portugal531205
    2Croatia632010
    World Cup standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    33%Portugal Over 2.5
    67%Croatia Over 2.5
    3H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Portugal sit at 33% and Croatia sit at 67% with the H2H average at 3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Portugal v Croatia prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    World Cup hubWorld Cup fixtures and predictionsPortugal v Croatia predictioncorners trends hubplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hub

    Next step

    Betting context

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