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Oviedo crestOviedo
v
Alaves crestAlaves

La Liga | Sun 17 May, 18:00

Oviedo v Alaves Stats

Data last updated: Sat 06 Jun 2026, 00:20 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Oviedo face Alaves in La Liga on Sun 17 May, 18:00. Real Oviedo have scored only 26 goals in 36 league games, pushing the lines firmly toward a lower overall event match. Real Oviedo's offensive lines are struggling, having failed to find the net in three consecutive fixtures.

BT4Y best bet

S: a home win (1), a draw (X), or an away win (2)

  • Under 2.5 Goals is rated around 57% by the current BT4Y model.
  • The Under 2.5 Goals market means the total goals scored by both teams combined will be two or fewer.
  • Alaves are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.4 goals per match, with Oviedo at 0.4.
  • BTTS rates of 40% for Oviedo and 80% for Alaves show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Under that scoring level around 57% on the latest available numbers. Alaves are carrying more of the scoring load at that scoring level per match, with Oviedo at 0.4. The Under 2.5 Goals market means the total goals scored by both teams combined will be two or fewer.

Alaves are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.4.Visible data support
Positive
BTTS rates of 40% for Oviedo and 80% for Alaves.Visible data support
Positive
The Under 2.5 Goals market means the total goals.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Under that scoring level is the preferred angle because the Under 2.5 Goals market means the total goals scored by both teams combined will be two or fewer. Alaves are carrying more of the scoring load at that scoring level per match, with Oviedo at 0.4. That drought has drained belief from a side that often competed well for spells but lacked the sharpness required at this level.

Main risk

That drought has drained belief from a side that often competed well for spells but lacked the sharpness required at this level.

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

The Under 2.5 Goals market means the total goals scored by both teams combined will be two.

Alaves are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.4 goals per match, with Oviedo at 0.4.

BTTS rates of 40% for Oviedo and 80% for Alaves show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Oviedo4.6
Avg corners for
Alaves5.6
Oviedo8.4
Avg total corners
Alaves11.8
Oviedo1
Avg yellow cards
Alaves2.8
Oviedo12.2
Avg shots
Alaves12.4
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 69% vs implied 56% · edge +13.4 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionAlaves Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 59% · edge +17.2 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
Alaves to WinBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Oviedo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Oviedo to WinBetUK guide price · model 27%
4
Check odds @ 4
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 21%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Alaves Draw No Bet is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Oviedo

LDLLD
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
14 May 2026A Real Madrid0-2
10 May 2026H Getafe0-0
03 May 2026A Real Betis0-3
26 Apr 2026H Elche1-2
23 Apr 2026H Villarreal1-1

Alaves

WDLWL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 3L
13 May 2026H Barcelona1-0
09 May 2026A Elche1-1
02 May 2026H Athletic Club2-4
25 Apr 2026H Mallorca2-1
21 Apr 2026A Real Madrid1-2
Best odds for this sectionAlaves Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 59% · edge +17.2 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
Alaves to WinBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 84%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Oviedo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Oviedo to WinBetUK guide price · model 27%
4
Check odds @ 4
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 21%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Oviedo0.4
Avg goals scored
Alaves1.4
Oviedo1.6
Avg goals conceded
Alaves1.6
Oviedo40%
BTTS rate
Alaves80%
Oviedo40%
Over 2.5 goals
Alaves60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 57% · edge +12.9 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 34%
2
Check odds @ 2
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Oviedo wins
2Draws
1Alaves wins
04 Jan 2026Alaves v Oviedo1-1
13 Jan 2023Oviedo v Alaves1-0
29 Oct 2022Alaves v Oviedo2-1
30 Jul 2022Alaves v Oviedo0-0
Best odds for this sectionAlaves to WinBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 54% · edge +15.5 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Oviedo to WinBetUK guide price · model 27%
4
Check odds @ 4
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 21%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
The head-to-head sample gives context for Alaves to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
14Alaves4338111017-12
20Oviedo293861121-34
Oviedo sit in position 20, while Alaves sit in position 14, so table pressure belongs in the Under 2.5 Goals assessment.
Season team stats

La Liga

Oviedo38
Played
Alaves38
Oviedo0.7
Avg goals for
Alaves1.2
Oviedo1.6
Avg goals against
Alaves1.5
Oviedo10
Clean sheets
Alaves5
Best odds for this sectionAlaves Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 59% · edge +17.2 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
Alaves to WinBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Oviedo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Oviedo to WinBetUK guide price · model 27%
4
Check odds @ 4
Season data supports Alaves Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Oviedo Over 2.5
60%Alaves Over 2.5
1.5H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Oviedo sit at 40% and Alaves sit at 60% with the H2H average at 1.5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.