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Lanus crestLanus
v
Mirassol crestMirassol

CONMEBOL Libertadores | Tue 26 May, 23:00

Lanus v Mirassol Stats

Data last updated: Tue 14 Jul 2026, 02:45 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Lanus face Mirassol in CONMEBOL Libertadores on Tue 26 May, 23:00. Pressure, Pride and a Group G Finale Loaded With Tension. Lanús have failed to score in their last two Copa Libertadores matches while conceding six goals across those defeats. Mirassol have mastered low-possession victories, securing disciplined 1-0 results against both Lanús and Fluminense recently.

BT4Y best bet

Lanus Win

  • At 8/1, Lanus Win implies roughly 11%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 27%.
  • Back-to-back Libertadores losses against Always Ready and LDU Quito exposed defensive instability and a lack of attacking invention.
  • Mirassol have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 6 for Lanus.
  • Mirassol have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per match, which helps the Lanus Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 27% for Lanus Win sits against roughly 11% implied by the current price. Mirassol have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 6 for Lanus. Back-to-back Libertadores losses against Always Ready and LDU Quito exposed defensive instability and a lack of attacking invention.

Model chance vs price27% model chance against roughly 11% implied
Strong positive
Mirassol have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points.Visible data support
Positive
Mirassol have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Back-to-back Libertadores losses against Always Ready and LDU Quito.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Lanus Win is the preferred angle because back-to-back Libertadores losses against Always Ready and LDU Quito exposed defensive instability and a lack of attacking invention. Mirassol have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 6 for Lanus. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Lanus Win evidence

Back-to-back Libertadores losses against Always Ready and LDU Quito exposed defensive instability and a lack of attacking invention.

Mirassol have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 6 for Lanus.

Mirassol have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per match, which helps the Lanus Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Lanus Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Lanus0.4
    Avg goals scored
    Mirassol1.4
    Lanus1.4
    Avg goals conceded
    Mirassol0.6
    Lanus0%
    BTTS rate
    Mirassol20%
    Lanus20%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Mirassol20%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetfred guide price · Model 64% vs implied 60% · edge +4.1 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 66%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
    4.5
    Check odds @ 4.5
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 40%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    2.4
    Check odds @ 2.4
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    BTTS No is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: Lanus concede 1.4 on average and Mirassol score 1.4, so the clean-sheet route has a data base.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Lanus

    LLWWL
    Last 52W 0D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 0D 3L
    21 May 2026A LDU de Quito0-2
    06 May 2026A Always Ready0-4
    28 Apr 2026H LDU de Quito1-0
    16 Apr 2026H Always Ready1-0
    08 Apr 2026A Mirassol0-1

    Mirassol

    WWWLW
    Last 54W 0D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 0D 1L
    20 May 2026A Always Ready2-1
    07 May 2026H LDU de Quito2-0
    29 Apr 2026H Always Ready2-0
    15 Apr 2026A LDU de Quito0-2
    08 Apr 2026H Lanus1-0
    Market aligned with main pickLanus to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 56% · edge -28.6 pts
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Load more odds for this section
    Lanus Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
    1.35
    Check odds @ 1.35
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 48%
    1.12
    Check odds @ 1.12
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    2Mirassol1264023
    3Lanus96303-4
    CONMEBOL Libertadores standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickLanus to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 56% · edge -28.6 pts
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 40%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    2.4
    Check odds @ 2.4
    Lanus Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
    1.35
    Check odds @ 1.35
    Lanus to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Lanus6.2
    Avg corners for
    Mirassol4.8
    Lanus9.6
    Avg total corners
    Mirassol9
    Lanus1.8
    Avg yellow cards
    Mirassol2.8
    Lanus10.8
    Avg shots
    Mirassol11.2
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 51% · edge +0.3 pts
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 5.5 CardsBet365 guide price
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Lanus wins
    0Draws
    1Mirassol wins
    08 Apr 2026Mirassol v Lanus1-0
    Market aligned with main pickLanus to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 56% · edge -28.6 pts
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 40%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    2.4
    Check odds @ 2.4
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Lanus to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    CONMEBOL Libertadores

    Lanus6
    Played
    Mirassol6
    Lanus0.5
    Avg goals for
    Mirassol1.2
    Lanus1.2
    Avg goals against
    Mirassol0.7
    Lanus3
    Clean sheets
    Mirassol3
    Market aligned with main pickLanus to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 56% · edge -28.6 pts
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Load more odds for this section
    Lanus Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
    1.35
    Check odds @ 1.35
    Season data supports Lanus to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    20%Lanus Over 2.5
    20%Mirassol Over 2.5
    1H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Lanus sit at 20% and Mirassol sit at 20% with the H2H average at 1 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Lanus v Mirassol prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Next step

    Betting context

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