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Germany crestGermany
v
Finland crestFinland

Friendlies | Sun 31 May, 19:45

Germany v Finland Stats

Data last updated: Wed 24 Jun 2026, 19:48 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Germany face Finland in Friendlies on Sun 31 May, 19:45. Germany carry a six-match winning sequence across all competitions into this fixture, matching their historical dominance of nine wins over Finland. Germany carry a six-match winning streak but remain vulnerable defensively, having conceded three against Switzerland.

BT4Y best bet

Germany Win

  • At 7/5, Germany Win implies roughly 42%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 74%.
  • Given Finland's struggles against top-tier passing sides like the Netherlands, a narrow, competitive home triumph mirrors the patterns seen in Germany's close battle.
  • Germany have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 0 for Finland.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 74% for Germany Win sits against roughly 42% implied by the current price. Germany have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 0 for Finland. Given Finland's struggles against top-tier passing sides like the Netherlands, a narrow, competitive home triumph mirrors the patterns seen in Germany's close battle.

Model chance vs price74% model chance against roughly 42% implied
Strong positive
Germany have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points.Visible data support
Positive
Given Finland's struggles against top-tier passing sides like the.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Germany Win is the preferred angle because given Finland's struggles against top-tier passing sides like the Netherlands, a narrow, competitive home triumph mirrors the patterns seen in Germany's close battle with Switzerland. Germany have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 0 for Finland. Finland possess spirit and experience but face one of their toughest examinations of the year.

Main risk

Finland possess spirit and experience but face one of their toughest examinations of the year.

Key Data Signals

Germany Win evidence

Given Finland's struggles against top-tier passing sides like the Netherlands, a narrow, competitive home triumph mirrors the patterns.

Germany have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 0 for Finland.

What To Watch In The Data

Germany Win notes

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickGermany to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 90% · edge -16.1 pts
    1.11
    Check odds @ 1.11
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Germany to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Germany3
    Avg goals scored
    Finland-
    Germany2
    Avg goals conceded
    Finland-
    Germany100%
    BTTS rate
    Finland-
    Germany100%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Finland-
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 50% · edge +26 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
    1.08
    Check odds @ 1.08
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 58%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 26%
    3.5
    Check odds @ 3.5
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Germany

    WW
    Last 52W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 0D 0L
    30 Mar 2026H Ghana2-1
    27 Mar 2026A Switzerland4-3

    Finland

    Last 50W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 0L

    No recent match sample is available for Finland yet.

    Market aligned with main pickGermany to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 90% · edge -16.1 pts
    1.11
    Check odds @ 1.11
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
    1.01
    Check odds @ 1.01
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Germany9.5
    Avg corners for
    Finland-
    Germany11.5
    Avg total corners
    Finland-
    Germany0.5
    Avg yellow cards
    Finland-
    Germany22.5
    Avg shots
    Finland-
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 51% · edge +17.7 pts
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Germany wins
    0Draws
    0Finland wins
    Market aligned with main pickGermany to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 90% · edge -16.1 pts
    1.11
    Check odds @ 1.11
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    There is no strong recent head-to-head sample for Germany to Win, which makes current output, injuries and market timing more important than historic meetings.
    Season team stats

    Friendlies

    Germany4
    Played
    Finland2
    Germany3
    Avg goals for
    Finland0.5
    Germany1.3
    Avg goals against
    Finland3
    Germany1
    Clean sheets
    Finland0
    Market aligned with main pickGermany to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 90% · edge -16.1 pts
    1.11
    Check odds @ 1.11
    Season data supports Germany to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    100%Germany Over 2.5
    -Finland Over 2.5
    -H2H avg goals
    Given Finland's struggles against top-tier passing sides like the Netherlands, a narrow, competitive home triumph mirrors the patterns seen in Germany's close battle with Switzerland.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Germany v Finland prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Competition and hubs

    Friendlies hubFriendlies fixtures and predictionsGermany v Finland predictionbest bets hubcorners trends hubplayer stats betting angleslatest football stats

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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