Football Stats Hub

Ecuador crestEcuador
v
Guatemala crestGuatemala

Friendlies | Sun 07 Jun, 21:00

Ecuador v Guatemala Stats

Data last updated: Fri 10 Jul 2026, 12:37 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Ecuador face Guatemala in Friendlies on Sun 07 Jun, 21:00. Luis Fernando Tena’s side missed out on the 2026 World Cup after finishing third in their CONCACAF third-round group behind Suriname and Panama.

BT4Y best bet

Ecuador Win

  • At 23/10, Ecuador Win implies roughly 30%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 74%.
  • Ecuador possess supreme defensive stability, keeping 12 clean sheets in 18 matches.
  • Ecuador have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 0 for Guatemala.
  • Ecuador have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Ecuador Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 74% for Ecuador Win sits against roughly 30% implied by the current price. Ecuador have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 0 for Guatemala. Ecuador possess supreme defensive stability, keeping 12 clean sheets in 18 matches.

Model chance vs price74% model chance against roughly 30% implied
Strong positive
Ecuador have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points.Visible data support
Positive
Ecuador have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Ecuador possess supreme defensive stability, keeping 12 clean sheets.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Ecuador Win is the preferred angle because ecuador possess supreme defensive stability, keeping 12 clean sheets in 18 matches. Ecuador have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 0 for Guatemala. For Guatemala, the context is different but no less important.

Main risk

For Guatemala, the context is different but no less important.

Key Data Signals

Ecuador Win evidence

Ecuador possess supreme defensive stability, keeping 12 clean sheets in 18 matches.

Ecuador have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 0 for Guatemala.

Ecuador have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Ecuador Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Ecuador Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Ecuador1.33
    Avg goals scored
    Guatemala0.33
    Ecuador1
    Avg goals conceded
    Guatemala3.67
    Ecuador100%
    BTTS rate
    Guatemala33%
    Ecuador33%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Guatemala67%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 38% · edge +37.8 pts
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 56%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
    1.2
    Check odds @ 1.2
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
    1.65
    Check odds @ 1.65
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 30%
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickEcuador to WinBetUK guide price · Model 74% vs implied 86% · edge -11.5 pts
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 74%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Ecuador Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.1
    Check odds @ 1.1
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
    1.65
    Check odds @ 1.65
    Ecuador to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    Friendlies hubfull betting preview for Ecuador v Guatemalacorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Ecuador4.33
    Avg corners for
    Guatemala5
    Ecuador6.33
    Avg total corners
    Guatemala17
    Ecuador1
    Avg yellow cards
    Guatemala2
    Ecuador12
    Avg shots
    Guatemala6
    Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 54% · edge +20 pts
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 68%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 8.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Ecuador

    WDD
    Last 51W 2D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 2D 0L
    31 May 2026H Saudi Arabia2-1
    31 Mar 2026A Netherlands1-1
    27 Mar 2026A Morocco1-1

    Guatemala

    LLL
    Last 50W 0D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 3L
    05 Jun 2026A Czechia1-3
    27 Mar 2026A Algeria0-7
    18 Jan 2026A Canada0-1
    Market aligned with main pickEcuador to WinBetUK guide price · Model 74% vs implied 86% · edge -11.5 pts
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
    1.01
    Check odds @ 1.01
    Ecuador Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.1
    Check odds @ 1.1
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    2Ecuador wins
    0Draws
    0Guatemala wins
    22 Mar 2024Ecuador v Guatemala2-0
    12 Sep 2018Ecuador v Guatemala2-0
    Market aligned with main pickEcuador to WinBetUK guide price · Model 74% vs implied 86% · edge -11.5 pts
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
    1.65
    Check odds @ 1.65
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Ecuador to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    Friendlies

    Ecuador4
    Played
    Guatemala4
    Ecuador1.8
    Avg goals for
    Guatemala0.3
    Ecuador0.8
    Avg goals against
    Guatemala3.5
    Ecuador1
    Clean sheets
    Guatemala0
    Market aligned with main pickEcuador to WinBetUK guide price · Model 74% vs implied 86% · edge -11.5 pts
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Load more odds for this section
    Ecuador Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.1
    Check odds @ 1.1
    Season data supports Ecuador to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    33%Ecuador Over 2.5
    67%Guatemala Over 2.5
    2H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Ecuador sit at 33% and Guatemala sit at 67% with the H2H average at 2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Ecuador v Guatemala prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

    More stats pages

    Tanzania U17 v Australia U17Friendlies · Sat 11 Jul 09:00China PR U17 v Nigeria U17Friendlies · Sat 11 Jul 12:35

    Competition and hubs

    Friendlies hubFriendlies hubfull betting preview for Ecuador v Guatemalacorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football stats

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

    Read full prediction View match centre