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Aston Villa crestAston Villa
v
Nottingham Forest crestNottingham Forest

Premier League | Sat 12 Sep, 15:00

Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest Stats

Data last updated: Sun 27 Sep 2026, 17:35 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Aston Villa face Nottingham Forest in Premier League on Sat 12 Sep, 15:00. Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest meet at Villa Park with neither side yet to win in the Premier League this season, but the more urgent attacking problem belongs to Unai Emery’s team.

BT4Y match pick

Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest 1-1

  • At 12/5, Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest 1-1 implies roughly 29%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 26%.
  • Villa’s midweek victory may have changed the tone around their start, but Saturday asks a different question.
  • Nottingham Forest have the stronger recent points return, taking 2 points from the sample compared with 1 for Aston Villa.
  • Nottingham Forest have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest 1-1 angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Aston Villa sit 16 in the table, while Nottingham Forest sit 13, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 26% for Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest 1-1 sits against roughly 29% implied by the current price. Nottingham Forest have the stronger recent points return, taking 2 points from the sample compared with 1 for Aston Villa. Villa’s midweek victory may have changed the tone around their start, but Saturday asks a different question.

Model chance vs price26% model chance against roughly 29% implied
Negative
Nottingham Forest have the stronger recent points return, taking 2.Visible data support
Positive
Nottingham Forest have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Villa’s midweek victory may have changed the tone around.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Draw is the preferred angle because villa’s midweek victory may have changed the tone around their start, but Saturday asks a different question. Nottingham Forest have the stronger recent points return, taking 2 points from the sample compared with 1 for Aston Villa. Forest have scored in only one of four matches in all competitions, although their 2-2 draw at Liverpool showed they can still hurt strong opposition.

Main risk

Forest have scored in only one of four matches in all competitions, although their 2-2 draw at Liverpool showed they can still hurt strong opposition.

Key Data Signals

Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest 1-1 evidence

Villa’s midweek victory may have changed the tone around their start, but Saturday asks a different question.

Nottingham Forest have the stronger recent points return, taking 2 points from the sample compared with 1 for Aston Villa.

Nottingham Forest have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Draw angle more than a raw possession edge.

Aston Villa sit 16 in the table, while Nottingham Forest sit 13, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest 1-1 notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Aston Villa0
    Avg goals scored
    Nottingham Forest0.67
    Aston Villa1.67
    Avg goals conceded
    Nottingham Forest1
    Aston Villa0%
    BTTS rate
    Nottingham Forest33%
    Aston Villa33%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Nottingham Forest33%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetfred guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
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    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 42%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 60%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 24%
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 33%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    more Premier League analysisAston Villa v Nottingham Forest predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickDrawBet365 guide price · Model 26% vs implied 30% · edge -4.2 pts
    3.3
    Check odds @ 3.3
    Load more odds for this section
    Nottingham Forest Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 62%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 64%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Nottingham Forest to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%
    3.25
    Check odds @ 3.25
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 42%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Aston Villa Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    1.68
    Check odds @ 1.68
    Aston Villa to WinBetUK guide price · model 30%
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
    Draw is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Aston Villa

    DLL
    Last 50W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 1D 2L
    05 Sep 2026A Hull City0-0
    31 Aug 2026H Arsenal0-1
    23 Aug 2026A Brighton0-4

    Nottingham Forest

    DDL
    Last 50W 2D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 2D 1L
    05 Sep 2026H Tottenham0-0
    29 Aug 2026A Liverpool2-2
    22 Aug 2026H Leeds0-1
    Market aligned with main pickDrawBet365 guide price · Model 26% vs implied 30% · edge -4.2 pts
    3.3
    Check odds @ 3.3
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    Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 77%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Nottingham Forest Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 62%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Nottingham Forest to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%
    3.25
    Check odds @ 3.25
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 56%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Aston Villa Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    1.68
    Check odds @ 1.68
    Aston Villa to WinBetUK guide price · model 30%
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    33%Aston Villa Over 2.5
    33%Nottingham Forest Over 2.5
    2.9H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Aston Villa sit at 33% and Nottingham Forest sit at 33% with the H2H average at 2.9 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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