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Aston Villa crestAston Villa
v
Nottingham Forest crestNottingham Forest

UEFA Europa League | Thu 07 May, 20:00

Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest Stats

Data last updated: Sun 21 Jun 2026, 12:30 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Aston Villa face Nottingham Forest in UEFA Europa League on Thu 07 May, 20:00. The atmosphere has repeatedly dragged them through difficult moments, while Emery’s reputation in this competition still carries enormous weight. Aston Villa have an impeccable home record in Europe with nine straight wins at Villa Park.

BT4Y best bet

Aston Villa Win

  • At 27/10, Aston Villa Win implies roughly 27%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 60%.
  • Rogers has been directly involved in five goals across six home European appearances, highlighting his major attacking threat tonight.
  • Aston Villa have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 10 for Nottingham Forest.
  • Aston Villa have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.4 conceded per match, which helps the Aston Villa Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 60% for Aston Villa Win sits against roughly 27% implied by the current price. Aston Villa have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 10 for Nottingham Forest. Rogers has been directly involved in five goals across six home European appearances, highlighting his major attacking threat tonight.

Model chance vs price60% model chance against roughly 27% implied
Strong positive
Aston Villa have the stronger recent points return, taking 12.Visible data support
Positive
Aston Villa have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.4 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Rogers has been directly involved in five goals across.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Aston Villa Win is the preferred angle because rogers has been directly involved in five goals across six home European appearances, highlighting his major attacking threat tonight. Aston Villa have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 10 for Nottingham Forest. However, for the 90-minute match result, Villa remain strong favourites due to the expectation that they must attack from the first whistle.

Main risk

However, for the 90-minute match result, Villa remain strong favourites due to the expectation that they must attack from the first whistle.

Key Data Signals

Aston Villa Win evidence

Rogers has been directly involved in five goals across six home European appearances, highlighting his major attacking threat.

Aston Villa have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 10 for Nottingham Forest.

Aston Villa have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.4 conceded per match, which helps the Aston Villa Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Aston Villa Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Aston Villa2
    Avg goals scored
    Nottingham Forest1
    Aston Villa0.4
    Avg goals conceded
    Nottingham Forest0.6
    Aston Villa20%
    BTTS rate
    Nottingham Forest40%
    Aston Villa40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Nottingham Forest20%
    Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 57% vs implied 52% · edge +4.5 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 51%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 53%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 65%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 29%
    3.2
    Check odds @ 3.2
    Under 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: recent Over 2.5 rates are 40% for Aston Villa and 20% for Nottingham Forest, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    UEFA Europa League hubfull betting preview for Aston Villa v Nottingham Forestcorners trends hubplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Aston Villa

    LWWWW
    Last 54W 0D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 109W 0D 1L
    30 Apr 2026A Nottingham Forest0-1
    16 Apr 2026H Bologna4-0
    09 Apr 2026A Bologna3-1
    19 Mar 2026H Lille2-0
    12 Mar 2026A Lille1-0

    Nottingham Forest

    WWDWL
    Last 53W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 106W 1D 3L
    30 Apr 2026H Aston Villa1-0
    16 Apr 2026H FC Porto1-0
    09 Apr 2026A FC Porto1-1
    19 Mar 2026A FC Midtjylland2-1
    12 Mar 2026H FC Midtjylland0-1
    Market aligned with main pickAston Villa to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 59% · edge +1.2 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 85%
    1.14
    Check odds @ 1.14
    Aston Villa Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    2Aston Villa2187018
    13Nottingham Forest1484228
    UEFA Europa League standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickAston Villa to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 59% · edge +1.2 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Aston Villa Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 53%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Aston Villa to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Aston Villa4.2
    Avg corners for
    Nottingham Forest5.5
    Aston Villa8
    Avg total corners
    Nottingham Forest9.25
    Aston Villa1
    Avg yellow cards
    Nottingham Forest0.5
    Aston Villa9.6
    Avg shots
    Nottingham Forest14.75
    Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
    1.92
    Check odds @ 1.92
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 41%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 10.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    5Aston Villa wins
    2Draws
    3Nottingham Forest wins
    30 Apr 2026Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa1-0
    12 Apr 2026Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa1-1
    03 Jan 2026Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest3-1
    05 Apr 2025Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest2-1
    14 Dec 2024Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa2-1
    24 Feb 2024Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest4-2
    Market aligned with main pickAston Villa to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 59% · edge +1.2 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 53%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Aston Villa to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    UEFA Europa League

    Aston Villa15
    Played
    Nottingham Forest16
    Aston Villa2.1
    Avg goals for
    Nottingham Forest1.6
    Aston Villa0.5
    Avg goals against
    Nottingham Forest1
    Aston Villa9
    Clean sheets
    Nottingham Forest7
    Market aligned with main pickAston Villa to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 59% · edge +1.2 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Aston Villa Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Season data supports Aston Villa to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Aston Villa Over 2.5
    20%Nottingham Forest Over 2.5
    2.9H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Aston Villa sit at 40% and Nottingham Forest sit at 20% with the H2H average at 2.9 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Competition and hubs

    UEFA Europa League hubUEFA Europa League hubfull betting preview for Aston Villa v Nottingham Forestcorners trends hubplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hub

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

    Read full prediction View match centre