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Aston Villav
Nottingham ForestUEFA Europa League | Thu 07 May, 20:00
Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest Stats
BT4Y best bet
Aston Villa or Nottingham Forest to Win
- At 1.62, Aston Villa or Nottingham Forest to Win is priced at roughly 62% implied probability. Our model has it closer to 82%, so the current line is showing a +20.3-point value edge.
- Aston Villa have a recent record of 4W-0D-1L, while Nottingham Forest come in at 3W-1D-1L across the same last-five lens.
- The result profile supports the Aston Villa or Nottingham Forest to Win angle: Aston Villa have taken 4 wins from their last 5 matches, averaging 2 goals scored and 0.4 conceded.
- The result profile supports the Aston Villa or Nottingham Forest to Win angle: Nottingham Forest have taken 3 wins from their last 5 matches, with BTTS landing in 40% of that sample.
- If the bookmaker is still close to 1.62, this is the market to check first because the data and the price are both pointing in the same direction.
Market odds
Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.
Best odds for this sectionHome WinBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 58% · edge +2.2 pts
1.73
Bet HERE @ 1.73Load more odds for this section
Key match trends
A quick read of the strongest visible indicators.
40%Aston Villa Over 2.5
20%Nottingham Forest Over 2.5
2.9H2H avg goals
Recent form
Results and scoring shape from recent games.
Aston Villa
LWWWW
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 recordLast 109W 0D 1L
30 Apr 2026A Nottingham Forest0-1
16 Apr 2026H Bologna4-0
09 Apr 2026A Bologna3-1
19 Mar 2026H Lille2-0
12 Mar 2026A Lille1-0
Nottingham Forest
WWDWL
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 recordLast 106W 1D 3L
30 Apr 2026H Aston Villa1-0
16 Apr 2026H FC Porto1-0
09 Apr 2026A FC Porto1-1
19 Mar 2026A FC Midtjylland2-1
12 Mar 2026H FC Midtjylland0-1
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 85% vs implied 88% · edge -3 pts
1.14
Bet HERE @ 1.14Load more odds for this section
Goals, BTTS and over/under
Goal-market data and related prices.
Aston Villa2
Avg goals scoredNottingham Forest1
Aston Villa0.4
Avg goals concededNottingham Forest0.6
Aston Villa20%
BTTS rateNottingham Forest40%
Aston Villa40%
Over 2.5 goalsNottingham Forest20%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 57% vs implied 52% · edge +4.5 pts
1.91
Bet HERE @ 1.91Load more odds for this section
Head-to-head
Recent meetings and related markets.
5Aston Villa wins
2Draws
3Nottingham Forest wins
30 Apr 2026Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa1-0
12 Apr 2026Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa1-1
03 Jan 2026Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest3-1
05 Apr 2025Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest2-1
14 Dec 2024Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa2-1
24 Feb 2024Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest4-2
Best odds for this sectionHome WinBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 58% · edge +2.2 pts
1.73
Bet HERE @ 1.73Load more odds for this section
Corners, cards and shots
Detailed stat markets where available.
Aston Villa4.2
Avg corners forNottingham Forest6.6
Aston Villa8
Avg total cornersNottingham Forest10.4
Aston Villa1
Avg yellow cardsNottingham Forest0.8
Aston Villa9.6
Avg shotsNottingham Forest15.8
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
1.92
Bet HERE @ 1.92Load more odds for this section
Player stats
Player props and player-level signals.
Load more player angles
J. JimohAston Villa · Midfielder
Goal threat100/100
Shots /9011.25
SOT /907.5
Igor JesusNottingham Forest · Attacker
Goal threat94/100
Shots /902.91
SOT /902.02
D. MalenAston Villa · Attacker
Goal threat76/100
Shots /902.74
SOT /902.19
J. SinclairNottingham Forest · Midfielder
Goal threat1/100
Shots /900
SOT /900
E. AndersonNottingham Forest · Midfielder
Goal threat23/100
Shots /901.45
SOT /900.36
Season team stats
UEFA Europa League
Aston Villa13
PlayedNottingham Forest15
Aston Villa1.8
Avg goals forNottingham Forest1.7
Aston Villa0.6
Avg goals againstNottingham Forest0.8
Aston Villa7
Clean sheetsNottingham Forest7
Best odds for this sectionHome WinBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 58% · edge +2.2 pts
1.73
Bet HERE @ 1.73Load more odds for this section
League standings snapshot
Current table context.
| Pos | Team | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aston Villa | 21 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 8 |
| 13 | Nottingham Forest | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
Next step
Betting context
Use the best-bet case above as the starting point, then check the live odds and the full prediction before staking.
