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Rayo Vallecano crestRayo Vallecano
v
Villarreal crestVillarreal

La Liga | Sun 17 May, 18:00

Rayo Vallecano v Villarreal Stats

Data last updated: Sat 13 Jun 2026, 12:06 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Rayo Vallecano face Villarreal in La Liga on Sun 17 May, 18:00. Rayo Vallecano are unbeaten in their last eight home league games at Vallecas, showing immense resilience. Villarreal have seen both teams score in six consecutive La Liga fixtures.

BT4Y best bet

Into the squad, their aggressive high press will actively exploit the pockets of space Villarreal leave open when transitioning from attack to defence

  • At 4/7, Both Teams To Score implies roughly 64%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 76%.
  • 🎯 Selection 1 Rationale: Both Teams To Score – Yes
  • Rayo Vallecano show a 60% BTTS rate and Villarreal show a 100% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
  • Rayo Vallecano average 1.6 goals scored and Villarreal average 2.2, so both attacking contributions need separating.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 76% for Both Teams To Score sits against roughly 64% implied by the current price. Rayo Vallecano show a that shared-scoring rate rate and Villarreal show a that shared-scoring rate rate, which is the right starting point for this market. 🎯 Selection 1 Rationale: Both Teams To Score – Yes

Model chance vs price76% model chance against roughly 64% implied
Positive
Rayo Vallecano show a 60% BTTS rate and Villarreal show.Visible data support
Positive
Rayo Vallecano average 1.6 goals scored and Villarreal average 2.Visible data support
Positive
🎯 Selection 1 Rationale: Both Teams To Score –.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Both Teams To Score is the preferred angle because 🎯 Selection 1 Rationale: Both Teams To Score – Yes Rayo Vallecano show a that shared-scoring rate rate and Villarreal show a that shared-scoring rate rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Since Villarreal score consistently but struggle to protect their lead away from home, a balanced and hard-fought scoreline mirrors their respective defensive and offensive trends perfectly.

Main risk

Since Villarreal score consistently but struggle to protect their lead away from home, a balanced and hard-fought scoreline mirrors their respective defensive and offensive trends perfectly.

Key Data Signals

Both Teams To Score evidence

🎯 Selection 1 Rationale: Both Teams To Score – Yes

Rayo Vallecano show a 60% BTTS rate and Villarreal show a 100% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Rayo Vallecano average 1.6 goals scored and Villarreal average 2.2, so both attacking contributions need separating.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams To Score notes

  • Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Rayo Vallecano1.6
Avg goals scored
Villarreal2.2
Rayo Vallecano1
Avg goals conceded
Villarreal1.4
Rayo Vallecano60%
BTTS rate
Villarreal100%
Rayo Vallecano20%
Over 2.5 goals
Villarreal60%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 76% vs implied 64% · edge +12.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 59%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 27%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 76% vs implied 64% · edge +12.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Villarreal to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
3
Check odds @ 3
Villarreal Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Rayo Vallecano to WinBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Rayo Vallecano Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 55%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
BTTS Yes is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

La Liga fixtures and predictionsrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Rayo Vallecano4.6
Avg corners for
Villarreal4.8
Rayo Vallecano9.2
Avg total corners
Villarreal9.6
Rayo Vallecano3
Avg yellow cards
Villarreal1.8
Rayo Vallecano15
Avg shots
Villarreal10.6
Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 69% vs implied 54% · edge +15.1 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Load more odds for this section
Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Rayo Vallecano

DDWDW
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 5D 2L
14 May 2026A Valencia1-1
11 May 2026H Girona1-1
03 May 2026A Getafe2-0
26 Apr 2026H Real Sociedad3-3
23 Apr 2026H Espanyol1-0

Villarreal

LDWWD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 2L
13 May 2026H Sevilla2-3
10 May 2026A Mallorca1-1
02 May 2026H Levante5-1
26 Apr 2026H Celta Vigo2-1
23 Apr 2026A Oviedo1-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 62% · edge +7.1 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Villarreal to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
3
Check odds @ 3
Villarreal Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Rayo Vallecano to WinBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Rayo Vallecano Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 55%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Rayo Vallecano wins
2Draws
6Villarreal wins
01 Nov 2025Villarreal v Rayo Vallecano4-0
22 Feb 2025Rayo Vallecano v Villarreal0-1
18 Dec 2024Villarreal v Rayo Vallecano1-1
28 Apr 2024Villarreal v Rayo Vallecano3-0
24 Sep 2023Rayo Vallecano v Villarreal1-1
28 May 2023Rayo Vallecano v Villarreal2-1
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 76% vs implied 64% · edge +12.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Villarreal to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
3
Check odds @ 3
Rayo Vallecano to WinBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
The head-to-head sample gives context for BTTS Yes, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

La Liga

Rayo Vallecano38
Played
Villarreal38
Rayo Vallecano1.1
Avg goals for
Villarreal1.9
Rayo Vallecano1.2
Avg goals against
Villarreal1.2
Rayo Vallecano12
Clean sheets
Villarreal8
Best odds for this sectionVillarreal to WinBet365 guide price · Model 39% vs implied 33% · edge +6 pts
3
Check odds @ 3
Load more odds for this section
Villarreal Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Rayo Vallecano to WinBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Rayo Vallecano Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 55%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Season data supports Villarreal to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3Villarreal72382261026
8Rayo Vallecano5038121412-3
Rayo Vallecano sit in position 8, while Villarreal sit in position 3, so table pressure belongs in the Both Teams To Score assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Rayo Vallecano Over 2.5
60%Villarreal Over 2.5
2.6H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Rayo Vallecano sit at 20% and Villarreal sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2.6 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Rayo Vallecano v Villarreal prediction

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Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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