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Belgium crestBelgium

UEFA Nations League | Mon 05 Oct, 19:45

France v Belgium Stats

Data last updated: Sun 04 Oct 2026, 08:40 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

France and Belgium renew their UEFA Nations League rivalry in a tightly contested match with group leadership at stake. France enter with a strong recent record against Belgium, having won the last six encounters, including a 1-0 victory in Brussels last week. Belgium face significant midfield absences with suspensions to key creators Kevin De Bruyne and Youri Tielemans, limiting their attacking threat. France's defensive solidity and unbeaten start under Zinedine Zidane provide a solid foundation, though defensive changes pose some risk. Both teams have shown low-scoring patterns recently, setting the stage for a tactical, controlled contest in Paris.

BT4Y lean · price warning

France to Win

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 65%, above the 42% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • France have won the last six meetings against Belgium, including three in 2024.
  • Belgium miss key midfield creators De Bruyne and Tielemans due to suspension.
  • France have kept five clean sheets in their last nine home matches.
  • Belgium have recorded successive away clean sheets but struggle to break down France.
Price warning

France to Win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 65% while the model sits nearer 42% (-23.3 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: BTTS No shows a +15 pts edge at 2.25.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model recognizes France's strong defensive record and recent control over Belgium, including six consecutive wins. Despite the current price being short with a negative , the football read remains compelling due to Belgium's midfield suspensions weakening their creativity. France's ability to restrict Belgium to low expected goals and their unbeaten run under Zidane support the home win selection. However, the model advises reduced staking given the price sensitivity and suggests waiting for price improvement or stronger team news to enhance value.

France Defensive StrengthFive clean sheets in last nine home matches
Strong positive
Belgium Midfield SuspensionsDe Bruyne and Tielemans absent
Strong positive
Recent Head-to-HeadFrance won last six meetings
Strong positive
Price vs Model Chance42.1% model chance vs 65.4% implied (-23.3 pts)
Negative

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

France's consistent control over Belgium and the visitors' key midfield absences make a home win the most credible outcome. France's defensive discipline and recent head-to-head success provide a solid tactical foundation, while Belgium's reduced creativity limits their scoring opportunities, tipping the balance in favor of the hosts.

Main risk

However, De Bruyne will miss Monday’s game through suspension, as will Youri Tielemans.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“France's tactical control and defensive resilience, combined with Belgium's midfield suspensions, create a scenario where the home side's victory is the most plausible result despite the short price.”

Key Data Signals

France to Win evidence

France have won the last six meetings against Belgium, including three in 2024.

Belgium miss key midfield creators De Bruyne and Tielemans due to suspension.

France have kept five clean sheets in their last nine home matches.

Belgium have recorded successive away clean sheets but struggle to break down France.

What To Watch In The Data

France to Win notes

  • Over the last six meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.17, with most matches producing fewer than three goals.
  • This trend, combined with both teams' defensive strengths and recent low-scoring matches, suggests a continued pattern of tight, low-goal affairs with controlled tempo and limited open-play chances.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

France1
Avg goals scored
Belgium1.67
France0.33
Avg goals conceded
Belgium0.33
France33%
BTTS rate
Belgium0%
France0%
Over 2.5 goals
Belgium33%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetMGM guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 44%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Both teams have exhibited low-scoring tendencies in recent matches, with all Nations League games involving France and Belgium producing fewer than four goals. France's strong defensive record and Belgium's limited creativity due to suspensions suggest a tight match with a low likelihood of both teams scoring, aligning with the expectation of a controlled, low-goal contest.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickFrance to WinBetUK guide price · Model 42% vs implied 65% · edge -23.3 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
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Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 68%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 44%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
France Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
The 42.1% for France to Win sits against roughly 65.4% implied by the current price (-23.3 pts). France have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 6 for Belgium. Defensive changes pose a risk, but history supports this tight scoreline.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more UEFA Nations League analysisFrance v Belgium predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

France

DWW
Last 52W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 0L
02 Oct 2026H Italy1-1
28 Sep 2026A Belgium1-0
25 Sep 2026A Türkiye1-0

Belgium

WLW
Last 52W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 1L
02 Oct 2026H Türkiye3-0
28 Sep 2026H France0-1
25 Sep 2026A Italy2-0
Market aligned with main pickFrance to WinBetUK guide price · Model 42% vs implied 65% · edge -23.3 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
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Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 72%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
France Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
France holds a slight edge in recent form with 7 points from 3 matches and a strong defensive record conceding only 0.33 goals per game. Belgium also shows solid form but with a higher goals conceded rate and reliance on key players now suspended. France's recent victories over Belgium and unbeaten streak under Zidane underscore their momentum and tactical stability heading into this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%France Over 2.5
33%Belgium Over 2.5
2.17H2H avg goals
Over the last six meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.17, with most matches producing fewer than three goals. This trend, combined with both teams' defensive strengths and recent low-scoring matches, suggests a continued pattern of tight, low-goal affairs with controlled tempo and limited open-play chances.

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